Election news digest 10, 1 - 15 March 2009

Contents:

EU Monitors Ready For Indonesia's Aceh Vote [1 March]
A European Union delegation visiting Aceh said Sunday the EU was ready to send electoral observers to the Indonesian province's poll next month. [full story…]

Major Parties Should Form Alliance For A Stable Government [2 March]
The Jakarta Post speaks with Saiful Mujani, executive director of the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), a poll survey firm, about the country's political landscape ahead of the upcoming elections. [full story…]

Voices From The Provinces: Maluku [2 March]
Reuters 'Voices from the provinces' series takes a look at what some of the 170 million voters in different parts of Indonesia think about the political parties, the election issues and economic conditions. [full story…]

Also: W Java [9 March] [full story…]

Reading A `Surya Paloh Factor' in Golkar [2 March]
Jusuf Kalla faces a dilemma in deciding whether he should declare himself a presidential candidate for the Golkar Party.  The roots of this dilemma are to be found in the specific power relations that prevail in the Golkar Party.  The question is whether Golkar has lost its unifying factor since the Suharto regime fell in May 1998. [full story…]

Also: The ‘Golkar Dilemma [2 March] [full story…]

Many 'problematic' areas in 2009 Elections [3 March]
As many as 82,206 polling stations have been classified as rawan (problematic), according to Coordination Minister for Politics and Security, Widodo AS. The number of police used to guard security during the elections will be 371,614, while the number of TNI [army] troops will be 24,260. [full story…]

23 Parties Join Forces To Fight Election Limits [4 March]
Undeterred by a series of court-issued setbacks for independent candidates and small parties, 23 political parties have established a group to fight a Constitutional Court ruling that upheld a threshold for parties to make it into the House of Representatives. [full story…]

Party Pledges Against Graft Pointless: ICW [4 March]
An anticorruption declaration signed last week by all of the political parties running in the  legislative elections amounts to nothing without the action to support it, says Indonesia Corruption Watch. [full story…]

UNDP Supports Women’s Representation in Politics [4 March]
The United Nations Development Program, or UNDP has swung in behind efforts to increase the number of women in the House of Representatives by providing $1.5 million to $2 million for a
public-awareness program aimed at electing more females. [full story…]

Link Between Thefts and Need for Campaign Funds Suspected [4 March]
In the past few weeks, the media has reported a spate of stories concerning candidates in the upcoming legislative elections being suspected of involvement in various thefts. Suspicions that the pressing need to fund political campaigns were behind the crimes arose after one of the arrested legislative candidates admitted that he wanted to use the money from his crime to fund his campaign. [full story…]

Aceh: Press Release by Civil Society Organisations Common Front (Posko) 2009 Election Watch [4 March]
On 2 March, hundreds of flags of Acehnese political parties  were pulled down by troops of the Koramil, Simpang Keuramat, North Aceh.  The action by the TNI (Indonesia Army) in removing the attributes of the political parties is a violation of the Acehnese people's civil and political rights and a violation of elections laws. [full story…]

Also: Aceh Party Angered by Army Interference in Elections [5 March] [full story…]

Soldiers Jailed for Removing Party Flags [6 March] [full story…]

Golkar: Electoral Strength and Dilemma [5 March]
It is predicted the Golkar Party will have difficulty meeting the target to garner 30 percent of the votes in the 2009 elections with its electoral strength showing a decreasing trend. But as the support for Golkar decreases, the support for the Democrat Party is likely to rise significantly. Why has this happened? [full story…]

Indonesia's 'Year Of Voting Frequently' About To Kick Off [5 March]
It's one of the biggest and most convoluted democratic exercises on earth, and it's about to happen on Australia's doorstep: Indonesia's 'Year of Voting Frequently'. About 170 million Indonesians will go to the polls at least twice in 2009: next month, to elect a parliament, and again in July, to elect a president. The presidential poll will likely lead to a run-off between the top candidates, to be held in September.  [full story…]

Pre-Election Politics in Aceh: Trust Remains a Problem [6 March]
Differing opinions about the presence of ex-GAM members in the political process, the existence of local parties, and the escalation of violence are causing apprehension in the run-up to the general elections on 9 April.  [full story…] 

Also: No US Observation Teams To Monitor Election In Aceh [9 March] [full story…]

Is GAM Real, or a Nonentity? [13 March] [full story]

Grenade explosion injures five in Aceh [13 March] [full story…]

Concerns Over Poll Logistics in Papua [7 March]
Despite calls from Papua Governor Barnabas Suebu for immediate government aid to ensure that election logistics are in place in time for the legislative polls, the General Elections Commission, or KPU, said that everything was under control. [full story…]

Parties fail to report on funding [9 March]
Bawaslu, the election supervision agency, is very concerned about the lack of information about the funding of political parties for their election campaigns.  The information required includes identifying the source of the money, how the money is to be used and the balance at the start of the campaign. Only one of the 38 parties, Partai Bintang Reformasi (Star Reform Party) has provided information about the source, but failed to comply with all the requirements set. [full story…]

Also: Political Party Finance Reports ‘Not Realistic’ [11 March] [full story…]

Brimob deployed in Papua, Maluku and Aceh for elections [10 March]
Plans by the National Police to provide additional security during the legislative and presidential elections have already swung into action in regions that have seen periods of local conflict in recent years. [full story…]

Also: Police Told to Bump Up Security For Elections in Unstable Provinces [12 March] [full story…]

Papuans rally in call for a referendum [11 March]
Leaflets distributed to the public at a rally calling for a referendum on Papua's right to independence said that the forthcoming elections were not a solution for Papua. The leaflets were emblazoned with the slogan: Freedom Yes, General Election No.  Speakers also criticised the candidates in the 2009 elections because they would not change anything.  Several Golkar flags were pulled down.  [full story…]

Also: Boycotting the Elections is No Solution [12 March] [full story…]

The Rise of the Democratic Party in a Scarcity of Political Plenty [12 March]
So much to choose from, so little choice. When Indonesians flock to the polls in the April 9 legislative elections, their ballots will in effect start shaping the presidential election.  Polls suggest that the Democratic Party of President SBY is riveting voters away from other parties, secular and nationalist alike, and quadrupling their returns. [full story…]

Time is Running Out: Jakarta Post editorial [13 March]
The legislative election is less than a month away. However, there is not yet a guarantee that the election will be smooth, let alone be on time. Up to now, there are two minor but crucial steps that the General Elections Commission (KPU) has yet to completely settle ­ the availability of ballot papers across the country and the practical method of casting the votes. [full story…]

Handouts Kick Off Indonesian Election Campaign [14 March]
For many Indonesian villagers, the first signs that an election is around the corner are the posters, colourful flags and bunting affixed to every structure in their neighbourhood. The second is a visit from a party official offering money, food and other benefits in exchange for their votes.  This is part of the phenomena of money politics that extends from small handouts to poor villagers to a slew of bribery and corruption scandals that have hit the national legislature. [full story…]

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EU Monitors Ready For Indonesia's Aceh Vote

AFP
March 1, 2009
JAKARTA

A European Union delegation visiting Aceh said Sunday the EU was ready to send electoral observers to the Indonesian province's poll next month.

"I think observers are important to monitor elections in Aceh, to support a sustainable peace process," said EU parliamentarian Hartmut Nassauer, on a visit with other members of the European parliament and Commission.

"We hope that (upcoming) elections in Aceh will be held in fair, free and without intimidation and hope that police can secure the process of election in the province," he told reporters.

The deal between Aceh rebels and Jakarta -- which was reached in the aftermath of the 2004 Asian tsunami -- ended nearly three decades of separatist conflict that cost around 15,000 lives.

It brought former rebels into power in local government and allowed the establishment of provincial political parties, but unemployment is high and foreign aid money is running out after the tsunami rebuilding effort.

The province on the northern tip of Sumatra island saw a spate of low-level political and criminal violence, including kidnappings, shootings and grenade attacks on Aceh's party offices.

Aceh will choose a new provincial parliament on April 9, when legislative elections are held across Indonesia.

"The (European) Commission has said that we are ready to send observers to Aceh but we're still waiting for the invitation from the (Indonesian) government," Nassauer added.

Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said during a recent visit to Aceh that foreign monitors would be allowed into the province to observe the polls and report on any intimidation or violence.

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Major Parties Should Form Alliance For A Stable Government

The Jakarta Post
Monday, March 2, 2009

Indonesia will hold its legislative and presidential elections on April 9 and July 8 respectively this year. Around 38 political parties will compete to win seats at the regional and national legislative bodies while observers have speculated at length about who will generate enough political support to vie for the presidential position. The Jakarta Post' s Dicky Christanto spoke with Saiful Mujani , executive director of the
Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), a poll survey firm, about the country's political landscape ahead of the upcoming elections. Below are excerpts from the interview:

Question : There are 38 political parties and six local parties competing in the upcoming legislative elections at the regional and national levels. What chance do old parties have over newer ones?

Answer : My prediction is that the Indonesian people will only choose 10 political parties at the most. They will ignore the rest because they are not familiar or comfortable with them. Up to this point, I think, brand awareness still plays a significant role in determining whether a political party will get votes or not. For most people, their choice follows a simple logic: they only vote for parties they are familiar with. The 1999 and 2004 general elections showed that only one-third of all political parties managed to garner any votes at all.

Which parties do you think can attain significant vote numbers in the upcoming elections?

Well, most of them are more-established players such as the Golkar Party, Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), Democratic Party, the National Awakening Party (PKB), the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and the National Mandate Party (PAN) plus two or three newcomers. For this year's elections, it seems that two newly established parties - the People's Conscience Party (Hanura) and the Greater Indonesian Movement Party (Gerindra)- will join the more established parties grabbing at a lot of votes, thanks to their massive campaign activities which have been going on since last year.

According to the latest LSI survey, Hanura and Gerindra will each collect at least five percent of votes in the upcoming elections.

With such a number of votes, will both parties determine the course of the country's political process?

Both parties will have an impact in the sense that they will likely attain quite a significant number of votes for a first-time party. However, they will not earn enough to influence the formation of government in the post-election political process. Thus, I strongly suggest they consider this year's election success a long-term investment and learn some lessons for the future.

How about the competition among major parties?

Our surveys have shown that old parties, such as PDI-P and Golkar, will garner 17 percent and 16 percent of total votes respectively. Both parties will get less votes than in the 2004 elections when they achieved 18 percent and 21 percent respectively.

The surveys have suggested that President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party will see the most improvement, with estimates it will earn 20 percent of the votes, a giant leap from seven percent in the last elections.

Meanwhile the rest of the old parties, such as PAN, PKB and PKS, will most likely remain stable by securing seven to nine percent of votes.

The Democratic Party, PDI-P and Golkar will be the three most dominant parties.

How can the Democratic Party secure so many votes?

Well, at this point, I must acknowledge that there is no stronger presidential candidate than the incumbent Yudhoyono. In the absence of an alternative candidate, many people believe they have to entrust the current President and his party with the responsibility of running the country once more. This explains why the surveys suggest the Democratic Party will win the elections.

What do you think are the chances of a political coalition being formed based on the results obtained from surveys?

If the government is to run smoothly, there is not really any other option than for the three major parties to form a solid alliance. Maybe they could ask one or two middle-ranked parties to join the group so they could form a truly united new government. And for the rest of middle-power parties, they could form an opposition alliance to voice alternative policies.

So, despite of lack of fresher figures, I think this year's general elections will offer Indonesia a chance to experience greater political stability if the three biggest parties can form a coalition.

It's hard to contemplate PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri mending relations with Yudhoyono. The PDI-P is likely to secure less votes than in the past two elections, meaning Megawati could be replaced as head of the party. If somebody outside the Soekarno family takes over the PDI-P, then a coalition with the
Democratic Party could be possible.

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Indonesian Elections-Voices From The Provinces: Maluku

Reuters
March 2, 2009
AMBON, Indonesia

Indonesia holds parliamentary elections on April 9 and presidential elections on July 8.

The latest opinion poll shows President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, known by his initials SBY, and his Democrat Party in the lead, ahead of former President Megawati Sukarnoputri.

Our 'Voices from the provinces' series takes a look at what some of the 170 million voters in different parts of Indonesia think about the political parties, the election issues and economic conditions.

The province of Maluku, in eastern Indonesia, has a population of about 1.4 million scattered over several hundred islands and for centuries was famous for its nutmeg and cloves.

Some parts of the province, which has a large Christian population, were hit by separatist, communal, and religious tension after former President Suharto stepped down in 1998. A peace pact was signed in 2002 and, while there has been sporadic violence since then, the area remains relatively peaceful.

* La Tuju, 45, sells shoes at Mardika market, Ambon

'My income is unsteady, it depends on when people buy for the new school term, so my income can be more than 200,000 rupiah ($16.70) a day, but normally it is less than that.

'During SBY's leadership, security is good, the economy is quite good even though basic foods are expensive.

'I don't know yet (which party to vote for). For president I will still vote for SBY. First, because he guaranteed security, second, because corruption can be eradicated.'

* Novry Komul, 20, runs a water taxi, Galala

'My income is quite good, on average 85,000 rupiah a day in take-home pay.

'Security has been good during SBY's government. The economy is also good.

'I will choose the Democrat Party because it is a nationalist party, and besides, one of my relatives is also their candidate for parliament. But for president, I will choose Megawati because I like Megawati. I would rather have a woman as president than a man.'

* Marthin, 24, sells watches and mobile phones, Batu Merah

'Business is good in Ambon because of the high purchasing power here, but it was a bit slower at the end of the year, maybe people were scared to come to the shopping plaza because we had some violence here.

'I am not going to choose a political party because their vision and mission are not really clear and their candidates are not really qualified. I will still choose SBY because his government has made progress.'

* Oni Kaisupy, 30, motorbike taxi driver, Batu Merah

'My income as a motorcycle-taxi driver is only enough for a meal. Security is good but life is tough as the cost of basic things is too high.

'I will vote for Golkar because they have been around a long time and have more experience. Why choose a new party?

'I will still choose SBY (as president) because he can guarantee security.'

* Vera Gommies, 35, sells meat-ball soup, Kudamati

'My income from selling meat-ball soup is sometimes sufficient, sometimes not.

'Security is quite good but economic conditions are quite hard, and basic foods are very expensive.

'I will vote for PDI-P because when Megawati was in power the economy was quite good. I will choose Megawati, first because she is a woman and second because the economy will be better.'

(Reporting by Febian Filiph; Writing by Telly Nathalia; Editing by Sara Webb and Ed Davies) ($1=11975 Rupiah) Keywords: INDONESIA ELECTIONS/VOICES

(sara.webb@thomsonreuters.com; Reuters Messaging: sara.webb.reuters.com@reuters.net; +62 21 384 6364)

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Indonesian Elections-Voices From The Provinces: W Java

Reuters
March 9, 2009
BANDUNG, Indonesia

Indonesia holds parliamentary elections on April 9 and presidential elections on July 8.

The latest opinion poll shows President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, known by his initials SBY, and his Democrat Party in the lead, ahead of former President Megawati Sukarnoputri.

Our 'Voices from the provinces' series takes a look at what some of the 170 million voters in different parts of Indonesia think about the political parties, the election issues and the economic conditions.

West Java province, the most populous with 41.48 million people, is one of the main rice-growing areas, producing 10.12 million tonnes of unmilled rice in 2008, or 17 percent of Indonesia's total. About 27 percent of the labour force work in the agricultural sector.

Bandung, the provincial capital which is 125 km (78 miles) from Jakarta, was known as the Paris of Java during the Dutch colonial era. The governor of West Java is from the Prosperous Justice Party, while the mayor of Bandung is from Golkar party.

'I plan to vote. I understand from television how important it is to vote in the election because one vote can change everything. Every single vote counts. I have my choice but I won't tell. It's a secret.

'The current government is excellent in tackling corruption but prices of basic essentials are increasingly expensive. Five years ago I needed 50,000 rupiah ($4.17) to buy 25 kg of rice. Now, I have to pay 150,000 rupiah to buy the same amount.

'Under Suharto the situation was better. Back then, when the government had debt, they did not ask the people to think about how to pay the loan. But now, whenever the government gets a loan, they want us to also think how to repay it. I want to vote because I want change.'

* Murdiyono, 67, grows flowers, Pangalengan

'I am not going to vote because I don't see any politicians that are credible.

'Politicians only care about fighting to get power and be corrupt. No matter what we say, nothing is going to change.

'Business is now getting more difficult because everybody is dishonest and corrupt, creating unhealthy business conditions.

'Suharto was much better. He had a good strategy for the short term, medium term and long term, ensuring development.'

* Rosidin, 27, sells salted fish, Gegerkalong market

'I haven't decided whether to vote or not. It's difficult now because there are so many parliamentary candidates. But I want change because I have already seen the current government's performance.

'Now, it's difficult to earn money, and since prices of basic essentials are expensive, we spend the money even faster. I get about 50,000 to 100,000 rupiah from the sales of salted fish every day. That's enough.

'I hope the new government cares more about the people, and that they are not corrupt. I hope they can lower the price of fresh fish and rice.'

* Mamat Rachmat, 55, sells porridge, Gegerkalong Hilir

'Selling porridge now is hard. In the past, I could sell between 3.5 to 5 kilograms of chicken rice porridge, but now I sell on average 2 kilograms.

'Not only are there many other porridge vendors, but rice is also expensive now.

'I will vote because casting a vote is also a religious duty. I will vote again for Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. I think we should give him more time to continue his programme. It's like building a house. If you keep changing the foundations of the house, you won't finish building it.

'Yes, the Suharto time was better. But he was so corrupt. SBY has the courage to fight corruption. This is important because we have huge natural resources but no one can manage them the right way.'

* Dedi Suwarno, driver, Rancamaya village

'Voting is not going to change things. Everything is still the same. Even now, it's getting difficult to make money. I make between 500,000-600,000 rupiah a month. That is enough.

'I think I will vote for the current president. It's useless to vote for a new president because nothing will change anyway.

'I just hope everything will be easier with the new government.
Rice should be available at an affordable price.'

For a table of opinion polls, please click on.

($1=11,995 Rupiah)

(Reporting by Fitri Wulandari; Editing by Sara Webb)

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Reading A `Surya Paloh Factor' in Golkar

The Jakarta Post
Monday, March 02, 2009
Fachry Ali , Jakarta

The Jakarta Post's editorial on Feb. 23 depicts the dilemma of Jusuf Kalla in the Golkar Party today. Thirty-three provincial leaders from the Golkar Party visited his official residence demanding that he declare himself a presidential candidate for the party. For Kalla, a realistic politician, it seemed this fait accompli was unexpected.

Responding to this dilemma, the Post raised the question: "Will Vice President Jusuf Kalla remain the running mate of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono or will JK challenge SBY in the July presidential election?" While I believe no one is able to give the exact answer, the roots of Kalla's dilemma must be found in the specific power relations that prevail in the Golkar Party.

Since its rebirth in the early years of the New Order era, Golkar had functioned as a breeding ground for the new Indonesian elite, in terms of both politics and economics, under the tight control of former president Soeharto. The basic question since the regime fell in May 1998 is whether Golkar has not lost its unifying factor.

Instead, how the elites it bred enjoyed their freedom from Soeharto's control, while at the same time possessing formidable political and economic resources they had accrued during the three decades of the New Order era. For, in a national situation where material well-being was scarce, these elites faced no difficulties in adjusting themselves to the new environment.

The post-Soeharto Golkar Party, therefore, was not only glutted with well-to-do and agile politicians, but also independent people answerable to no one.

As a result, this party served only as a loose conglomeration of notables, each with his or her own aspirations, desires and ambitions. Because each of them was endowed with material wealth, they were automatically able to finance their own political projects.

It can be understood then, if the chairman of Golkar acted merely as a primus enter pare (first among equals) - and thus had no thorough command over these notables. As a consequence, although it officially appeared as an organization, the structure of power relations within Golkar's elite circle was more horizontal than the vertical in nature.

It is in this context that Surya Paloh's position deserves special attention. Having carved a political career in the Golkar Party in his early years in Medan, Paloh impressed the powerful Jakarta military-based group by establishing the FKPPI, a communications forum for the children of retired army personnel in late 1970s. He then became a young entrepreneur, owning a catering company, Indocater. Early in the 1980s, he realized his deep and long-time dream of publishing a newspaper, Prioritas.

It was curious that, although listed as a member of Jakarta's elite inner circle and a close friend of Soeharto's sons, especially Bambang Trihatmodjo, Prioritas unhesitatingly criticized the New Order policies, which finally led to it being banned. But he refused to succumb by obtaining another a publication permit letter (SIUP) for Media Indonesia.

His newspapers ownership expanded ever larger to local papers in Aceh, Medan, Palembang, Padang, Lampung and Manado – although the Lampung Pos is the only one to survive.

When, between 1996 and 1997, he succeeded in establishing the first Indonesian news television channel, MetroTV, Surya Paloh's public influence arrived at an unassailable point. In this position, the fall of the New Order regime was a declaration of his freedom from the previous political patronage.

It was with this full-fledged independence he re-entered the Golkar Party in 2004 through its Bali congress. Being second to no one, Paloh exerted his personal influence within Golkar. With a notorious lack of an ideological base, this party stood on no solid foundations, running in accordance with the improvised ideas of its elite.

A seasoned political activist, Paloh wasted no time, injecting the party with a "morbid program", organizing mass rallies with the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) in Medan and Palembang, and publicly stating that both parties spoke the same language.

This flirting with the PDI-P is an open expression of Paloh's personal independence. For in playing political games, he is always in a position of nothing to lose.

More importantly, however, this maneuver marks his opposition to the Yudhoyono-Kalla pairing - who, in fact, are governing Indonesia based on the support of the Democrat and Golkar parties.

It remains to be seen how this story will end. But, last week's visit by 33 provincial leaders from Golkar, demanding Kalla declare himself a presidential candidate, shows, for the time being, the "victory" of Surya Paloh.

The writer is the Jakarta-based director of the Institute for the Study and Advancement of Business Ethics (LSPEV Indonesia).

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The `Golkar Dilemma'

The Jakarta Post
Monday, March 02, 2009
Sunny Tanuwidjaja , Jakarta

The Golkar party poses a dilemma for those who consider courting Golkar to support their presidential bid, including for President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY). On the one hand, Golkar is currently the biggest party in parliament, the winner of the 2004 legislative election, and will certainly gain a significant number of votes in the 2009 elections. And, as a political party, Golkar can also be considered to have the most
solid party organization.

However, the problem with Golkar is that its success in the legislative election cannot be used to measure its success in the upcoming presidential election. The loyalty of Golkar's voters is to the party, but not to figures.

In the 2004 presidential election, Golkar had Wiranto as their candidate in the first round and then supported Megawati Soekarnoputri in the second. However, as survey results have shown, a significant number of Golkar voters did not choose Wiranto or Megawati. Instead, many voted for SBY.

A survey conducted by the CSIS in May 2008 reveals that compared to other big parties such as the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the Democratic Party (PD) or the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), Golkar is the least capable in transferring party support to their presidential candidates.

While the majority of PDI-P voters support Megawati, PD voters support SBY, and PKS voters support Hidayat Nur Wahid for president, support from Golkar voters is spread equally among several individuals such as SBY, Jusuf Kalla (JK), Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X and Megawati.

Those who want to court Golkar to support their presidential bid should rethink their decision if their goal is merely to gain Golkar's voters support.

Another consideration in taking on Golkar as a coalition partner is to get a stable government after the election. However, we all know how fragile a coalition is in a multiparty presidential system.

Taking Golkar as a coalition partner to win the presidential election could be very costly for any presidential  candidate. For example if SBY is to take a Golkar candidate as his coalition partner to win the presidential election, he must offer a significant number of Cabinet seats and other forms of side payments considering the size of Golkar.

And considering the cost and benefits of having Golkar as his coalition partner, SBY and his campaign team have a number of possible scenarios of legislative election results to consider. These are: Both PD and Golkar perform well; only one of the two performs well; or both fail to perform as expected.

If both parties perform badly, both parties will certainly maintain the incumbent pair because the pair is their best bet to win the presidential election. If both parties perform well, SBY will have the freedom to choose a less costly running mate considering that SBY is already a popular choice among many Golkar voters. And, adding JK as his running mate might not get him a significant number of additional votes from Golkar voters.

If PD performs well but Golkar underperforms, SBY has even more leverage and incentive to find another stronger running mate. Again, in this case SBY will lean towards parting with JK because leaving the incumbent vice president out will not cost him many votes from Golkar supporters.

What will certainly push SBY towards choosing JK as his running mate is if PD underperforms, and Golkar comes out victorious in the legislative election.

Up to now, the upcoming presidential election has been fairly predictable. There will be two front-runners: SBY and Megawati. The third and probably the fourth presidential candidates are still unclear, but many expect they will not pose a real challenge to the two main front runners. The questions are who will be the running mates of these two front runners, and will there be any candidates that can challenge them.

From survey results, popular vice presidential candidates are

JK, Hidayat Nur Wahid, Sri Sultan and Prabowo Subianto. The last two, however, have strongly signaled their unwillingness to run as vice president. This makes JK and Hidayat the two strongest candidates for the vice presidency.

If we use counterfactual assumptions, we can ask what will happen if the two popular vice presidential candidates run together as a pair. Surely the two front runners will have to find other figures that are fit and willing to become running mates. This will not be easy, but surely the combination of JK and Hidayat could create some distraction to the two front runners, and even pose a real challenge.

Hidayat, with his loyal PKS voters, and JK with his Golkar party organization could certainly make the presidential election more exciting. The question is whether Golkar will be willing to take the chance to partner with PKS, which has (or is perceived to have) a different if not conflicting ideological and political
orientation to Golkar. This is risky but the payoff might be worth it.

The writer is a researcher at the Politics and International Relations Department at CSIS Jakarta, and is currently a PhD Candidate at Northern Illinois University.

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Many 'problematic' areas in 2009 Elections

SINDO
March 3, 2009

As many as 82,206 polling stations have been classified as rawan (problematic), according to Coordination Minister for Politics and Security, Widodo AS. Of these 61,705 have been classified as Rawan I, and 20,501 have been classified as Rawan II.

They could be 'rawan' be because of the danger of fighting between supporters of different candidates or between groups  affiliated with one or other of the parties.Another factor could be that by exploiting certain national issues, conflicts could occur. Other issues were the decision to split up regions or the consequences of the global economic crisis.

Widodo said the number of police used to guard security during the elections will be 371,614, while the number of TNI [army] troops will be 24,260. In addition, there would be 1,223,272 'linmas' personnel [This is a new abbreviation and as yet unknown to this translator. 'Mas' probably stands for masyarakat/society, but we are unsure of what 'lin' stands for].

[This comes to a total of 1,619,146 personnel to guard the polling stations.]

He said that an Agreement has been concluded with the army and the police, as well as independent institutions connected with running the elections. He hoped that all these efforts would ensure that the elections run smoothly, in accordance with the principles of democracy.

He said there were three security operations: one will take the form of open and concealed operations (sic), one to safeguard the logistical requirements, and one to safeguard the candidates.

The objectives were prevention, detection and upholding the law, to ensure that conditions during the elections were under control.

'If the political atmosphere  intensifies, this is something quite understandable and can be controlled,' he said.

On the same occasion, the Chief of Police, Police General Bambang Hendarso Danuri, said that his forces were ready to safeguard the elections. Those polling stations that have been classified as 'rawan' would be given special attention, working together with the TNI and 'linmas'. He also said that none of the polling stations in Aceh have been classified as 'safe'. All  polling stations there have been classified as 'rawan' which means that the focus on security would be intensified there.

A member of the Electoral Commission, the KPU, said that this classification of polling stations means that further discussions will need to be held between the TNI and the police to reach a better understanding of what is meant by 'rawan'.

He accepted that the TNI and the police were in a better position to determined the level of security in any particular region, which is why the KPU believes that it is very important to work closely with these two institutions.

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23 Parties Join Forces To Fight Election Limits

The Jakarta Globe
Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Undeterred by a series of court-issued setbacks for independent candidates and small parties, 23 political parties have established a group to fight a Constitutional Court ruling that upheld a threshold for parties to make it into the House of Representatives.

The court recently rejected a request filed by 11 parties regarding the parliamentary threshold clause in the 2008 Election Law.

The parties established the group during a closed discussion in Jakarta on Tuesday in part as a reaction to the court’s ruling.

The law stipulates that a political party must win more than 2.5 percent of the total votes to receive seats in the House, and political analysts have predicted that only around ten of the 38 parties eligible to run in the national legislative elections will actually make it into the House.

The Court also recently ruled that independent candidates would not be allowed to run in the presidential election. Instead, a candidate must be nominated by a party or coalition of parties that had won 20 percent of the seats in the House or 25 percent of the popular vote to be eligible to run in the July presidential poll.

Oesman Sapta, chief of the Regional Unity Party said that participants created a team to hammer out an agenda for the group. The group is slated to reconvene on March 6.

Asked if the group might itself become a political coalition, Oesman said there had been no talks to that effect, adding that such talks might weaken the group’s resolve to press their agenda.

The group discussed staging a rally to target the General Elections Commission, filing a complaint with the Judicial Commission and suggested a potential boycott of the 2009 elections.

Former State Secretary Yusril Ihza Mahendra, who served in Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s cabinet and is a notable member of the Crescent Star Party, added to the chorus of voices saying the threshold clause effectively shut out small parties.

The meeting was also attended by the chairman of the Indonesian Workers and Employers Party, Daniel Hutapea, and Marhaenism Indonesian National Party chairwoman Sukmawati Sukarnoputri.

Also on hand were representatives of the Democratic Renewal Party, the Patriot Party, the Freedom Party, the Prosperous Peace Party, the Republican Party, the Sovereignty Party, the Labor Party, the Functional Party of Struggle and the Vanguard Party.

Antara, JG

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Party Pledges Against Graft Pointless: ICW

The Jakarta Globe
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Nivell Rayda

An anticorruption declaration signed last week by all of the political parties running in the legislative elections amounts to nothing without the action to support it, Indonesia Corruption Watch said on Tuesday.

“Parties need to disclose their sources of funding [for the elections], which would show that they are transparent and conforming to the standards of good governance,” said Adnan Topan Husodo, a political analyst with ICW. “That is more important than the signing of any declaration.”

On Feb. 25, representatives from all 38 national political parties participating in the April 9 polls met at the Corruption Eradication Commission, or KPK, headquarters to sign pledges against graft and put eradicating corruption at the top of their respective political agendas.

Adnan said if parties failed to disclose the nature of their funding, politicians running for seats in the House of Representatives could easily resort to corruption.

“In a way, parties are investing in corruption,” Adnan said. “The parties promote corrupt politicians who in turn find kickbacks and bribes from companies and label them as donations.”

A number of recent KPK cases have revealed staggering corruption within the House, though only nine lawmakers have been charged by the graft-fighting body. The cases have implicated legislators in demanding money to pass legislation or interfering in tender processes.

Adnan said parties that failed to take action against corrupt legislators should have been banned from next month’s elections. He said the lack of consequences for graft suspects was a glaring sign that parties were not committed to eradicating corruption.

“Right now [politicians] are only required to show letters of good behavior from the police,” he said. “These politicians must disclose their wealth before they are allowed to run, and graft suspects should not be allowed at all.”

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UNDP Supports Women’s Representation in Politics

The Jakarta Globe
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Camelia Pasandaran

The United Nations has swung in behind efforts to increase the number of women in the House of Representatives.

The United Nations Development Program, or UNDP, said on Tuesday it would provide $1.5 million to $2 million for a public-awareness program aimed at electing more females.

Irman Lanti, UNDP election program manager, said female candidates could not expect to compete fairly without help. “Many Indonesian women have not got the same opportunities as men to contest in the political world,” he said. “That’s why we need affirmative action.”

The Constitutional Court recently ruled that the candidates receiving the most votes were entitled to legislative seats, regardless of gender. This was in contrast to the previous system in which political parties receiving the most votes then decided which of their candidates would take the actual seats. The previous “half-open” system in the Election Law required that at least one of a party’s three winning candidates in an
electoral region be female.

Women’s groups fear their representation will be further diminished in the House, or DPR.

Irman said the funds would be used to increase awareness of the female candidates.

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Link Between Thefts and Need for Campaign Funds Suspected

The Jakarta Globe
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Muninggar Sri Saraswati

In the past few weeks, the media has reported a spate of stories concerning candidates in the upcoming legislative elections being suspected of involvement in various thefts.

Suspicions that the pressing need to fund political campaigns were behind the crimes arose after one of the arrested legislative candidates admitted that he wanted to use the money from his crime to fund his campaign.

In past elections, voters chose the political parties they wanted to be represented by and then the party filled seats at the legislative from its own list of priority candidates. Parties, therefore, helped with most of the candidate’s campaign funding.

This year, candidates have to individually scramble to get the highest number of votes to get a seat in the legislative, forcing them to do whatever was necessary to raise money for their campaigns.

“Our electoral system has now become very liberal. It takes a lot of money to finance the campaign, which must be taken care of by the individual candidates,” said Bima Arya Sugiarto, director of political consulting agency Charta Politika.

Based on his experiences as a political consultant, Bima explained that a candidate could spend up to Rp 2.5 billion ($207,500) to campaign in one electoral region.

“Some candidates may say they only spend Rp 40 million in one electoral region, but it takes billions to finance the whole campaign up until election day,” he said.

The candidates could spend as much as they wanted because there was no legislation requiring them to report their account to the General Elections Commission, or KPU, a requirement imposed on political parties only, Bima said. “This is a fatal loophole that we must fix,” he said.

Erlangga Pribadi, a political expert from the state Airlangga University in Surabaya, East Java Province, agreed, adding that with the lack of such a ruling, “we’ll never know where the money they use came from.”

He said that such crimes were the logical consequences of the high cost of political campaigning as competition was now more on an individual basis.

But Fahry Ali, a political researcher with the state Indonesian Institute of Sciences, dismissed the connection.

“I think the crimes have nothing to do with having to get the most number of votes. I think, they commit crimes just because they are like that, like thieves.”

He said the cases should be seen in the same light as legislative candidates being caught taking illicit narcotics or engaging in extra-marital affairs.

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Press Release by Civil Society Organisations Common Front (Posko) 2009 Election Watch

On 2 March 2009, hundreds of flags of Acehnese political parties  were pulled down by troops of the Koramil, Simpang Keuramat, North Aceh

The action by members of Koramil of the TNI (Indonesia Army) in Simpang Keuramat, North Aceh in removing the attributes of the political parties is a violation of the Acehnese people's civil and political rights and a violation of the elections.

Situation according to the law

Law No 10, 2008 on the Elections stipulates that  three state institutions shall play a role and co-ordinate their law enforcement activities: Pawaslu, the supervisory election body in the regions, the Indonesian Police and the Attorney-General's Office. There is no place for the Indonesian Army (TNI) to play a role unless there is a specific request from the Indonesian Police.

The above provisions were corrected interpreted by the Chief of Staff of the Indonesian Army, General Agustadi Sasongko Purnomo, at a meeting that took place on 17 February 2009 at the office of the KNPI in North Aceh when he stated: 'Security is in the hands of the police, whereas soldiers are kept at a third remove because conditions in Aceh are conducive.

Moreover, according to the criminal code, an incident that harms the interests of one of the parties involved should be regarded as a criminal act. Article 101, para 1-5 of the Law on the Election states that political parties are entitled to use a variety of campaign objects. No other bodies can take action except for those designated by law to regulate party attributes.

The action taken by the Indonesian Army is in violation of Article 102, Para (2) of the Election Law which states: 'The Goverment, Provincial Governments, District Governments, Sub-district Governments, Village Administrations and the Indonesian Police Force are prohibited from taking any actions that favour or harm any of those taking part in a campaign.'

In view of the above, Faisal Hadi, speaking on behalf of Posko in Safeguarding Human Rights for the 2009 Elections reached a 'Common Understanding' that the arguments offered by the Commander of Koramil, North Aceh to justify the action taken by his troops is a grave error because the Republic of Indonesia is a state based on the rule of law and moreover has laws and regulations regarding the running of the elections. 'In view of all this, the action taken is illegal and an arbitrary use of power in violation of the law.'

Faisal also said that it was to be hoped that the officers and men of the Indonesian Army would not disregard the commitment of the Commander of the TNI that the Army would preserve is neutrality.

Asiah Uzia, also speaking on behalf of Posko said that actions undertaken by the forces of law and order must uphold the principles of justice and proportionality, and that the above action was in the nature of collective punishment which was militaristic which should not be undertaken under democratic conditions.

Banda Aceh, 4 March 2009

Translation by TAPOL
Comment by TAPOL: It should be borne in mind that Aceh is the only province in the country where local parties are permitted to take part in elections, in according with the Special Autonomy granted to Aceh in 2005.

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Aceh Party Angered by Army Interference in Elections

The Jakarta Globe
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Nurdin Hasan & Markus Junianto Sihaloho

Indonesian soldiers who pulled down the flags and banners of political parties in Aceh earlier this week had no authority to do so and might have committed legal violations, a local election supervisory committee, or Panwaslu, said on Wednesday.

Syamsul Bahri, the chairman of North Aceh’s Election Supervisory Committee, said his office would initiate an investigation after receiving complaints that banners of the Aceh Party — one of the six local parties vying in the elections in Aceh — were being torn down in the Simpang Keuramat subdistrict of North Aceh
district.

“If the result of our probe suggests it was a criminal conduct, then we will hand the case over to the police,” Bahri said, adding that the election law did not give the military the right to take down any political party banners.

Soldiers from the Simpang Keuramat Military subdistrict on Monday night allegedly took down hundreds of banners belonging to the Aceh Party, a local political party founded by former guerillas of the now disbanded Free Aceh Movement, or GAM.

Aceh Party’s North Aceh chapter spokesperson, Dedi Safrizal, said a party leader, Muhammad Dahlan Ishak, tried to stop the soldiers’s actions to no avail but recorded the incident on his cellphone camera.

“The video recording will be used as the evidence in our report to the General Election Supervisory Committee,” he said.

“We have told all Aceh Party members to keep calm. We will obey the law and will still abide by the Helsinki MoU,” Dedi said, referring to the peace pact signed by the government and the GAM leadership in August 2005 that ended almost three decades of violent separatist conflict in Aceh.

The Military chief’s assistant for operations, former Aceh military commander, Maj. Gen. Supiadin, defended the soldier’s actions.

He said all party leaders in Simpang Keuramat subdistrict had signed an agreement in a meeting that if the banners of any one party were removed by someone without permission from that party, then all parties’ banners would be taken down.

Supiadin said the meeting was attended by the Simpang Keuramat subdistrict chief, the local police and military commanders, and the representatives of the participating parties, except the Aceh Party.

He said a report was later received saying that 20 Democratic Party and 10 Golkar flags had disappeared, and accordingly the military to took down all party flags in the area.

“Everyone [in Simpang Keuramat] had agreed that if a party’s banner disappeared, then other parties’ banners, no matter who the perpetrator, must be taken down too,” Supiadin said in Jakarta.

However, Syamsul said his committee had never been invited to the alleged meeting.

“Such agreement [to take down parties’ banners] is not regulated under the General Election Law and cannot overrule a higher law,” he told the Jakarta Globe.

Dedi and the Simpang Keuramat subdistrict chief, Ilyas, both denied any agreement had taken place.

Ilyas said a meeting of party leaders had taken place but it was only briefing on the election law, how people should use their voting rights and the importance of maintaining peace.

“There was no agreement about flags,” Ilyas said. “Only Panwaslu has the authority take down flags and banners if they consider it a violation.”

Meanwhile, Aceh Military commander Maj. Gen. Soenarko was quoted by the state-run Antara news agency as saying in Banda Aceh that his soldiers might have violated the law.

“Whatever the reason, taking down political party flags is wrong and beyond the authority of the TNI [the Indonesian Armed Forces],” Soenarko said.

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Soldiers Jailed for Removing Party Flags

The Jakarta Globe
Friday, March 6, 2009
Nurdin Hasan & Markus Junianto Sihaloho

Six soldiers were handed light prison sentences on Thursday as a disciplinary measure for pulling down the flags and banners of political parties in the North Aceh district.

Lt. Col. Yusep Sudrajat, commander of the North Aceh Military District, said that while subdistrict military commander Second Lt. Inf. Erwin Saputra was given only a strong reprimand, six of his subordinates were each sentenced to 10 days in prison.

The verdicts were decided in a brief military trial held in the district headquarters.

The soldiers from the Simpang Keuramat Military subdistrict were accused of taking down on Monday night hundreds of banners belonging to the Aceh Party, a local political party founded by former guerillas of the now disbanded Free Aceh Movement, or GAM. Yusep said that although the soldiers were found guilty of
pulling down the party’s flags, their action was not aimed at discrediting any particular party.

“They did it because some flags belonging to the Golkar and Democratic parties were missing,” he said.

The Military chief’s assistant for operations, former Aceh military commander Maj. Gen. Supiadin, defended the convicted soldiers’ actions, saying all party leaders in the Simpang Keuramat subdistrict had signed an agreement that if the banners of one party were removed without permission from that party, then all parties’ banners would be taken down.

But the Aceh Party’s North Aceh chapter spokesman, Dedi Safrizal, and the Simpang Keuramat subdistrict chief, Ilyas, both denied that such an agreement existed.

Syamsul Bahri, the chairman of the North Aceh Election Supervisory Committee, or Panwaslu, said on Thursday that Panwaslu would still look into the incident.

Meanwhile, Yusep assured that no military units based in Aceh had any intention of attacking any political party, stressing that the military should remain politically neutral during the election season.

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Golkar: Electoral Strength and Dilemma

The Jakarta Post
March 5, 2009
Hanta Yuda AR

It is predicted the Golkar Party will have difficulty meeting the target to garner 30 percent of the votes in the 2009 elections, at least according to several poll results.

In December 2008 the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) indicated that support for the Golkar Party had dramatically decreased to 13.3 percent, while support for the Democratic Party (PD) experienced a significant jump, to 23 percent. The position of Golkar is still below that of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), who has 17.7 percent.

Golkar’s electoral strength is showing a decreasing trend. In the 1997 election, the last election of the New Order era, Golkar won an absolute victory, with 74.1 percent of the vote. In the 1999 election, Golkar’s vote dropped dramatically to 22.3 percent of the vote.

Golkar’s percentage decreased yet again in the 2004 legislative elections, with only 21.5 percent of vote, while the PDI-P garnered 18.5 percent and Democratic Party (PD) 7.4 percent. As indicated by the LSI’s survey results of 13.3 percent, Golkar has fallen into a danger zone; it could go from having the status of a major political party to being just a medium-sized contender. (It is important to note however, that the LSI is
also working for a major political party.)

One interesting phenomenon is that as the support for Golkar decreases, the support for the Democrat Party is likely to rise significantly. Both parties are in fact governing parties. The Golkar Party is led by the Vice President, which suggests that the Democratic Party is more appealing than the Golkar Party. Why has this happened?

If the government is considered successful, the popularity and the reelection chances of President Yudhoyono will increase, and this will have a positive impact on the perception of the Democratic Party: Its popularity will also increase.

Meanwhile, Golkar will not necessarily get maximum sympathy from the people, perhaps because of the strategic position of Yudhoyono, which is considered greater than that of Jusuf Kalla and the Golkar Party.

However, if the government is considered to have failed, the Golkar Party will still be directly affected. This is because the public cannot simply set aside the reality that Jusuf Kalla is the Vice President and his party supports the government: This could cause trouble for Golkar. Public support for the Golkar Party is not only influenced by external factors like the government’s popularity, but is also influenced by internal factors. There are two potential threats from inside the Golkar Party.

First, the potential fractionalization among the elite. The fractionalization could undermine the solidity of the party, making it susceptible to internal conflicts, which would be counterproductive for Golkar in the 2009 election.

Second, the pattern of undemocratic practices and aspirations. The Golkar Party still selects its leaders, especially the candidates for regional heads, on the basis of their economic contributions. On the other hand, the intervention of party officials from the central board (DPP) is still strong. The selection process of regional leaders does not apply transparent democratic principles; it still depends heavily on the desires
of the party elite rather than those of the constituents.

There are two possible scenarios for the Golkar Party in the upcoming elections.

First, a fall in the number of votes in the legislative elections would have an impact on Jusuf Kalla’s leadership of the Golkar Party. Kalla would be perceived as the one most responsible for the defeat of Golkar. If this happens, the political bargaining power of Golkar in the presidential election race would decrease. Jusuf Kalla could benefit from this, as he could still run as a vice presidential candidate.

Second, if the number of votes exceed that of the 2004 elections or reach 30 percent, the party would nominate its own presidential candidate, it could not simply nominate a vice presidential candidate, as this would undermine its political prestige.

By strengthening the demand for Golkar to nominate its own prominent figure as a presidential candidate and not just a vice presidential candidate, this victory would create a dilemma for Jusuf Kalla. The popularity and electability of Jusuf Kalla are still in doubt; he may not be strong enough to compete with the other candidates.

Golkar’s political strategy to overcome the political competition will be severely tested. The Golkar Party, which is ideologically a center party, has two strong competitors: The PDI-P and the Democrat Party.

It is unlikely Golkar can obtain 30 percent of the vote. It seems more plausible that it will maintain the same number of votes as in 2004. In addition, Golkar’s electoral strength will also depend on the perception of voters, which is closely related to their strategy and the innovation of the image projection of the party. Without political innovation, the voters will have difficulty distinguishing the Golkar Party from other political parties.

The writer is a political analyst and researcher at the Indonesian Institute, Jakarta.

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Indonesia's 'Year Of Voting Frequently' About To Kick Off

AAP
March 5, 2009
Adam Gartrell, South-East Asia Correspondent

JAKARTA, - It's one of the biggest and most convoluted democratic exercises on earth, and it's about to happen on Australia's doorstep: Indonesia's 'Year of Voting Frequently'.

About 170 million Indonesians will go to the polls at least twice in 2009: next month, to elect a parliament, and again in July, to elect a president.

The presidential poll will likely lead to a run-off between the top candidates, to be held in September.

Incumbent Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono - SBY to most Indonesians - is the frontrunner, despite a tough four and a half years in the job.

The former military general has had to deal with the 2004 tsunami and other natural disasters, terrorist attacks and the ongoing fight against militant Islamists, the scourge of political and judicial corruption, and myriad economic woes.

While often criticised as indecisive, he remains very popular.

"He's riding high in the opinion polls," says Indonesia expert Damien Kingsbury, of Deakin University.

"And as long as he doesn't make any mistakes, one would have to think he's in with a good chance."

Australian foreign policymakers, from Prime Minister Kevin Rudd down, are quietly hoping Kingsbury's right.

Australia's relations with Indonesia have never been better.

Rudd has forged a close relationship with Yudhoyono. As he delighted in pointing out last month, he met with his Indonesian counterpart no less than seven times last year.

"We've now entered that into the Guinness Book of Records under the bilateral relations heading," Rudd quipped.

Yudhoyono is a cleanskin, he's competent and he seems genuinely committed to democracy. He's a cautious reformer, but a reformer nonetheless.

He hasn't won the war against corruption, but he has made headway. Similarly, he hasn't won the war against terrorism, but it has been several years since Indonesia suffered a major attack.

Australian policymakers are not alone in their admiration of Yudhoyono. American and European governments will also be hoping for a Yudhoyono win, Kingsbury says.

"Yudhoyono is not perfect, but he is head and shoulders above the rest of the field," he says.

The rest of the field is, well, colourful.

Megawati Sukarnoputri, the former president and daughter of Indonesia's founding father Sukarno, is SBY's main rival.

Ibu Mega, as she's known, was Indonesia's leader for three years before SBY trounced her in 2004.

She insists she brought stability to Indonesia as it emerged from the authoritarian Suharto years. In reality, she was a do-nothing leader who had a frosty relationship with John Howard's Australia.

"Mega's biggest problem is she is just not a good administrator," Kingsbury says.

"Some people have suggested she is not very bright, but be that as it may, she is not a good administrator."

Two controversial former military strongmen have also thrown their hats into the ring.

Former armed services chief and accused human rights abuser Wiranto is one. In 2004, a UN-backed special tribunal issued an arrest warrant for Wiranto for his alleged role in the violence that surrounded East Timor's 1999 vote for independence.

The other is Prabowo Subianto, Suharto's son-in-law. But there's some baggage there too.

Human rights groups want Prabowo indicted for atrocities committed in East Timor by Indonesia's shadowy and controversial special forces unit, Kopassus, which he commanded.

Critics have also accused Prabowo of involvement in torture, murder and kidnapping in Indonesia during Suharto's final year in power.

Given their chequered pasts, Australia would find it difficult to deal with a President Wiranto or Prabowo. Any Australian government that got too cosy with either man would face criticism.

SBY could also face a challenge from his vice-president, Jusuf Kalla.

Kalla, chairman of Suharto's party Golkar, is obviously gearing up to run, but has not yet officially declared himself a candidate.

Kalla is a more attractive candidate, but his tilt is unlikely to be successful. For one thing, he is not Javanese. Most of Indonesia's leaders come from Java, Indonesia's most populous island, but Kalla comes from Sulawesi.

Kingsbury, for one, believes this is an almost insurmountable obstacle for Kalla.

The April elections will decide which of these contenders can actually run for the top job.

In the past, Indonesia's elections have been little more than personality contests - who looks and sounds the best, who has the best slogans, who can stage the biggest, most colourful rallies.

This year's elections are shaping up a little differently. Candidates are, more than ever before, talking about issues. They must, more than ever before, present plans and policies.

In large part, SBY is responsible for this shift.

In 2004, many Indonesians supported SBY because he came across as the candidate with the most substance, particularly next to Megawati, who ran a superficial campaign.

This time around, other candidates are trying to rise to SBY's game. The economy, naturally, is figuring as a big issue.

Terrorism, on the other hand, is not. With Indonesia attack-free for four years and the Bali bombers executed, terrorism is barely rating a mention.

But Indonesia is taking seriously the possibility of violence during the election season. The government will mobilise 1.4 million soldiers, police and other personnel to maintain security and guard polling stations.

Indonesia's troubled Aceh province is of particular concern.

Three Acehnese political figures have already been murdered in the run-up to the poll, threatening a fragile peace brokered in 2005 that ended a deadly 30-year separatist conflict.

All three murdered men were members of Partai Aceh, the political wing of GAM, the guerrillas who fought Jakarta for independence.

International Crisis Group expert Sidney Jones says it's unclear who killed the men. But whatever the truth, many Acehnese believe the Indonesian military is to blame, a perception that could lead to an escalation of the violence.

"I'm worried about the level of tension now," Jones says.

"I think a lot depends on the behaviour of both sides."

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Pre-Election Politics in Aceh: Trust Remains a Problem

The Jakarta Post
March 6, 2009
Hotli Simanjuntak, BANDA ACEH

Op-Ed

This is a story of two brothers who have different interests and differing views on former combatants of the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) affiliated with the Aceh Transitional Commission (KPA), an organization which coordinates ex-GAM fighters in a legitimate and government-recognized forum.

The older brother considers the existence of GAM ex-combatants and the KPA in Aceh as something normal, in view of their guerrilla struggle for freedom from Indonesia, sacrificing their wealth and lives, and sometimes those of civilians unrelated to the conflict.

For him, it is only natural for Aceh people to give special status and treatment to ex-GAM members as a community different from the rest of local society.

In brief, the peace and special autonomy manifested through the special governance today would not have been achieved in Aceh without guerrilla warfare.

The younger brother, however, is not so inclined to accept the presence of ex-GAM combatants in society, particularly in the business in which he is engaged.

In the construction business, where he operates as a small-scale contractor, he frequently has to pay a special fee for the project to the KPA. Unless the fee is paid, sometimes amounting to 30 percent of the project value, his job may not proceed smoothly.

Such things have been widely complained about by construction businessmen in the process of post-tsunami rehabilitation and reconstruction in Aceh.

The imposition of this fee, which in the regional term is called "nanggroe tax", is even believed to create an unfavourable investment climate in the province. Quite a number of investors have chosen to withdraw due to the tax.

The differing opinions about the presence of ex-GAM members are observed more seriously in the parties that had opposing ideologies during the period of conflict. The Indonesian Military (TNI) seems especially unwilling to accept the legitimacy enjoyed by ex-GAM members.

There has apparently been some feeling of envy at the special place given to GAM, through the KPA, in Aceh society.

Organizationally, the ex-GAM members' association in the form of the KPA, which has obtained legitimacy from the government through the Helsinki Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), is regarded as something unwarranted. It's like raising a tiger in one's home."

Besides, the clause in the Helsinki MoU, stipulating that the former GAM armed struggle is to be transformed into political struggle by setting up local parties, has caused apprehension among many circles, particularly ultra-nationalists based in the capital city.

At present, the dominant local party of ex-GAM combatants is the Aceh Party. In reality, the existence of this party is indeed dominating, covering even the remote parts of the province, as if no other local parties nor national parties would rival it in winning the hearts of Aceh people.

Apart from the 34 national parties, six local parties will be competing in the general elections scheduled for April 2009.
While in the other Indonesian regions their populations will only elect members from 34 parties, in Aceh there are 40 parties for local people to choose from.

On every occasion, GAM figures have always declared that the political struggle they are waging today is within the Unitary State of the Republic of Indonesia (NKRI). And this is final.

Despite the affirmation by the KPA and the Aceh Party that this party adopts the Pancasila state ideology and is based on the 1945 Constitution to dispel suspicion, still they are not yet fully trusted.

Lately, the public has been worried by the escalation of vio-lence in the days approaching the general elections. In adition, the TNI, with its ostensible inter-vention in security matters by capturing former GAM followers, is described by some circles as overreacting.

In a period of no less than a month, the Aceh populace has been shocked by various acts of violence like murder, bombing, arson and destruction of party symbols.

Media reports show from January to the first week of February 2009, 11 terror cases mostly affected the Aceh Party: bombing (2), symbol destruction (4), office burning (1), shooting (2), party executive killing (1), the KPA secretary murder in Batee Iliek, Bireuen, and a murder attempt.

Five cases concerned other local parties like the PRA, the SIRA, the PBA and the PAAS. Terror also spread to national parties: a bomb blast in the Golkar Party's Bireuen office and stone hurling at a Democratic Party member's home.

The helplessness of the police in the recent cases of hostility is closely connected with the capability of the terrorizing groups to launch their well-planned, neatly organized and systematic action.

This causes deep public anxiety over the likely emergence of seeds of new conflict in Aceh.

The fear is further worsened by the appearance of the media as a means by which the competent authorities in Aceh interpret the cases arising in society. This certainly results in confusion, rather than illumination, leading to an atmosphere of public tranquility.

It is important to note the terror perpetrators in Aceh are groups with fixed targets, that operate via a cell system and are present in all parts of the region. These trained groups apply common methods, like bombing, as well as killing, kidnapping and intimidation, as a way of provoking other parties, thereby creating horizontal conflict.

Apart from that, they also launch provocation in certain areas by aiming at the Aceh Party - as they want no legislative control by this party - and finally, they recruit civilians to back their field operations, like those taking place in Central Aceh and Southeast Aceh.

These are potential areas to counter the Aceh Party's movement, with the support of rumors about Aceh Lauser Antara (ALA) and Aceh Barat Selatan (ABAS) provincial splits.

However, some circles are also convinced that the urge to spread terror in Aceh will not work following the emphasis made by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono that there will be no more military zones (DOM) and military operations in post-MoU Aceh.

The President's hope that Aceh people will not revert to their past notions of a referendum or freedom is expected to neutralize and console those who remain suspicious of the presence of ex-GAM members through their local parties. NKRI is final in Aceh.

Will the general elections in Aceh run peacefully? Will peace in Aceh be preserved in spite of Indonesia's future president? These questions remain a mystery to the Aceh population as well as the Indonesian nation.

The credibility of the nation in the eyes of the world will be at stake unless the answer is positive. Let us see what is going to happen.

The writer is a journalist of The Jakarta Post.

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No US Observation Teams To Monitor Election In Aceh : Ambassador

The Jakarta Post [website]
March 9, 2009

The United States ambassador to Indonesia Cameron Hume says his country would monitor the process of the general election in Nangroe Aceh Darussalam informally, and not send special teams of observers to the province.

After a closed meeting with Aceh deputy governor Muhammad Nazar, Hume said his office would assign officers from the Sumatra consulate to monitor the election process scheduled for April 9.

"We will continue to monitor the conditions throughout the election period although we won't deploy special teams," Hume said on Monday as quoted by Antara state news agency.

Previously, the European Union (EU) had said it would dispatch special teams of observers, pending invitation from the Indonesian government. (ewd)

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Is GAM Real, or a Nonentity?

The Jakarta Post
March 13, 2009
Aboeprijadi Santoso

Op-Ed

Whether or not the former rebel Free Aceh Movement (GAM) still exists seems a question many consider no longer important. However, in the heat of the election campaign now sweeping over Aceh, its implications are serious.

Perceptions may turn out to be a crucial factor when the ideas involved carry symbolic significance and become articles of faith. The GAM and the meaning of the acronym, represent for the GAM a sacred icon they want to preserve. For the Indonesian military, quite the opposite, the idea represents separatism -
the antithesis of their very mission of maintaining the unitary state of Indonesia.

The GAM, mindful of Acehnese identity, wishes to remain loyal to what they perceive as Aceh's and GAM's history. So its symbolism will remain, despite the fact that the Helsinki agreement leaves no space for a separate Acehnese state.

The Helsinki MOU allows the GAM to legitimately remain in existence, even though it is now stripped of its independence aspirations. Nothing in the MOU suggests that it is no longer relevant or indicates that it should be dissolved.

The Indonesian delegation to the Helsinki process in 2005 correctly understood this; they never questioned it. As the process drew to a close in July 2005, I recalled asking one key delegate, Sofyan Djalil, what was going to happen to the GAM. He said he left the matter wholly up to GAM leadership.

As the implementation of the MOU proceeded, however, the Aceh Monitoring Mission (AMM) tried to push GAM leaders to dissolve the movement, to no avail.

Problems arose as the GAM, now represented by several bodies, groups and individuals, won the 2006 local elections. They were mainly represented in the Aceh Transition Committee (KPA) and the Aceh Party (Partai Aceh) while GAM leadership remains in Sweden. Individual GAM members have since been split in
different factions, but most remain loyal to GAM leadership, the KPA and the Aceh Party.

There are different factions and perceptions as well in Jakarta. Nationalist legislators and (retired) military officers have always been very suspicious of the GAM. They made noise about the continuing existence of the GAM and rejected the name "Partai GAM". A political party, they said, cannot, at the same time, be a movement (yet now there is a party which is also a movement or gerakan i.e. the Greater Indonesia Movement Party or Gerindra).

In reality, their greatest fear concerns the "M" (for merdeka or independence) of the GAM and its alleged "hidden agenda". This writer has noted in discussions with local officers and Jakarta politicians a strong presumption that the GAM will use its democratically won political victory as a future basis to demand
a referendum.

Hence, they feel as if they had been cheated when GAM leaders won the governorship and many district chief positions in the 2006 elections. Now they say we should be worrying about the GAM dominating the 2009 local legislation.

Sidney Jones, International Crisis Group's senior adviser has pointed out the great sensitivity to the symbolism that explicitly links the Aceh Party, the GAM and its aged leader Hasan di Tiro.

Military officers may have different styles of responding to the political development, some by being politically correct and, at the other extreme, some by shouting - as has been quoted by many - that "the Helsinki MOU is the greatest lie in Indonesian history". The latter is worrying and needs correction.

Such responses may be just different styles of the same basic proposition based on their training and historic experience. "State sovereignty" is a sacred concept in pre-colonial kingdoms and in independent Indonesia. When it comes to it, the presence of alien forces and the role of foreigners are taboo.

And its consequences are severe: First, the Dutch attempt in the 1940s to regain Indonesia incited the war of independence; second, the United Nation's role to resolve the East Timor issue and hold a plebiscite in 1999 ended in a bloody conflict.

Now it seems the Helsinki MOU is yet again seen as "foreign intervention". Some have urged that consultation on the MOU and foreign election observers are no longer necessary.

Amid the election campaign, paranoia has led to terror and xenophobia aimed at preventing GAM representatives' victory. There have been about 20 incidents targeting the KPA and the Aceh Party. So far, no suspects have been arrested, but the series of assaults appeared systematic as it, up to last year,
targeted vehicles and offices only, but since January, has victimized GAM leaders, as in Bireuen and Ujung Kalak, West Aceh.

Given the rising tensions, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and the visiting Aceh peacemaker former Finnish president Martti Ahtisaari were clearly forced to issue a stern warning against such attempts to subvert the peace process.

On the GAM side, there is no question of the popularity of the Aceh Party. But its dominance has often been used to intimidate other parties. The KPA and the Aceh Party are worried about the apparent persecution, but they too - like those who denigrate the Helsinki MOU - need to behave.

The GAM and "nationalist" officers, each from their opposite points of view, treat GAM symbolism as opposite articles of faith. Both should be reminded that they are bound to implement the Helsinki pact which respects democracy.

While the "nationalist" view on GAM's predicament remains as paranoid and confusing as this saying suggests, Cut Farah, reflecting ex-GAM combatants' views, made it clear that the GAM - i.e. its armed movement - "now no longer exists as it now strives toward democracy based on the Helsinki MOU".

In other words, whatever the nature of the GAM, it is the KPA and the Aceh party that actually operate on the ground.

None of this violates the Helsinki MOU, but only if and when the pact is fully implemented, may the GAM's existence logically no longer be relevant.

The writer is Radio Nederland Jakarta correspondent.

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Grenade explosion injures five in Aceh

The Jakarta Post
March 13, 2009
Hotli Simanjuntak

Violence erupted again in Aceh ahead of next month's legislative elections, after a grenade was thrown at a coffee stall, injuring five people.

The attack took place late Wednesday at the Integration Coffee Shop at the Alue Kala intersection in Lhokseumawe, 180 kilometers southeast of provincial capital Banda Aceh, said Lhokseumawe Police chief Sr. Comr. Zulkifli.

"Two unidentified men on motorcycles threw a grenade last night at a coffee stall owned by an Aceh Party official," he said.

He identified the five injured victims as Muhammad Raden, 32, Munawir, 30, Muhammad Ombin, 37, Syukri, 28, and M. Amin Gadeng, 50.

Local resident Razali said the attack occurred while the men were watching TV.

Sporadic violence and intimidation, ranging from bombings, abductions, confiscation of political party flags, and vandalism of party banners, to the killing of party executives have escalated ahead of the approaching elections in Aceh.

Sociologist George Junus Aditjondro said the recent violence could imply intelligent operations involving members of the military who were uncomfortable with political developments in the province.

Following the devastating 2004 earthquake and tsunami, an agreement between the government and the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) in 2005 ended a three-decade war separatist struggle.

Several former GAM members won local elections, running as independent candidates.

"There's a fear within the military and ultranationalists in Jakarta that Aceh will seek independence again if a local party, most likely the Aceh Party, wins the next elections," Aditjondro said at a seminar here Wednesday.

Aceh is the only province allowed to have local parties, as part of the agreement signed in Helsinki, triggering similar requests elsewhere.

Aceh now has six local parties, including the Aceh Party, contesting the April 9 elections. The Aceh Party was set up by former GAM leaders.

Also on Wednesday, two businessmen were kidnapped in a village by three gunmen in East Aceh district, Agence France-Presse reported local police chief Ridwan Usman as saying.

International Crisis Group security analyst Sidney Jones said that after a spate of murders of former rebel fighters earlier this year, she was convinced the province was on a "collision course" with renewed conflict.

But she said the recent appointment of a well-respected police chief, as well as visits in February by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Finnish peace negotiator Martti Ahtisaari, had helped calm tensions.

"Both of those visits, particularly President Yudhoyono's, seemed to have a direct impact on the behavior of both sides," she said Wednesday, referring to the former rebels and the Indonesian Military presence in  Aceh.

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Concerns Over Poll Logistics in Papua

The Jakarta Globe
Saturday, March 7, 2009
Camelia Pasandaran & Christian Motte

Despite calls from Papua Governor Barnabas Suebu for immediate government aid to ensure that election logistics are in place in time for the legislative polls, the General Elections Commission, or KPU, said that everything was under control.

“The distribution of ballot papers to all Papua districts is almost done,” KPU member Abdul Aziz said on Friday. “Only a few remaining areas are left, such as Waropen, because ballots for the district were sent by mistake to West Papua [province].”

He said that the smooth running of the election was the responsibility of the District Election Commissions, or KPUD, and if they encountered difficulties, they could ask for additional help from the government or the Indonesian Armed Forces.

The Ministry of Home Affairs last week issued a regulation that all provincial governments should allocate enough money from the regional budget to assist in the distribution of election materials.

“There are still more than 30 days to go [before the elections],” Aziz said. “I’d guess delivery of materials from the district to the polling stations shouldn’t take longer than ten days.”

Aziz also played down concerns about the required revisions to the final voter list, which contains at least 127,000 ‘ghost voters’.

“There will be a problem if voters are left unregistered. [To deal with the problem] we just need to make sure ballot paper numbers correspond to the number of real voters.”

Speaking earlier on Friday, Governor Suebu appealed for government help to ensure election materials reached remote and inaccessible areas.

He feared that without government support, deliveries to sub-district levels would be delayed.

“Logistics are tough in Papua Province,” Suebu said. “Some 70 percent of the trip requires air lifts, while the rest is delivered by land, sea and river.”

He asked the KPU to intensify the spread the information about the 2009 polls. “To be honest, Papuans only have a limited awareness about the elections.”

He also hoped that KPU would immediately appoint an Election Monitoring Committee at a sub-district level to ensure an honest, safe and fair election.

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Parties fail to report on funding

SINDO
March 9, 2009
Abridged translation by TAPOL

Bawaslu, the election supervision agency, is very concerned about the lack of information about the funding being used by the political parties for their election campaigns . A member of Bawaslu said  the information required includes identifying the source of the money, how the money is to be used and the balance at the start of the campaign.

Only one of the 38 parties, Partai Bintang Reformasi (Star Reform Party) has provided information about the source, but failing to comply with all the requirements set.

The situation is very worrying, bearing in mind that the deadline for this information is 9 March, while the law on the elections stipulates that parties that fail to comply could be disqualified from participating in the election. He urged the parties to submit the required information, otherwise all their hard work will have been for nothing.

Bawaslu has asked the KPU (Electoral Commission) not to allow extra time for parties to supply the information after the expiry date. The parties were given plenty of time to do so, from June last year until March 2009.

However, the secretary-general of the PDI-P, Pramono Anung, denied that they had failed to supply the information, claiming that they did so  as far back as August 2008. It was regrettable, he said, that Bawaslu had not checked their information.

The party with the largest budget is Gerindra (the party of Prabowo), with a budget of Rp.15,694,721,000 (at Rp 10,000 to the US dollar, this amounts to over one million dollars). Partai Demokrat's budget at Rp 7,074 billion is less than half that amount, while Hanura comes next with Rp 5 billion.

A member of Indonesia Corruption Watch said this just proves that parties are failing to provide the necessary information. 'It's not only the amount that is required but also the source of the money which is needed to show whether the party has obtained more than the permitted amount (from a single source) according to the law, which is a criminal offence.

The law stipulates that contributions from an individual should not exceed Rp 1 billion. while contributions from companies or other bodies should not exceed Rp5 billion.

[COMMENT: Since the information was released on 9 March, the expiry date, the law would seem to mean that all the parties registered to participate should be disqualified and there would be no election at all! We can only assume that there will be a flurry of activity by all the parties to provide the necessary information in the course of the coming week. The figures given reveal that it is Prabowo's party that is more flushed with cash than any other party; as reported earlier, he is waging an all-out effort to win millions of votes from peasants. TAPOL]

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Political Party Finance Reports ‘Not Realistic’

The Jakarta Globe
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Muninggar Sri Saraswati

Campaign finance reports filed by the political parties contesting next month’s legislative elections have raised more questions than answers, observers say, leaving many to wonder how parties funding nightly television advertising spots might have so little money to their name.

All political parties participating in the April legislative elections have submitted financial reports, but the reports only include the balance of the party’s campaign fund accounts — not the sources or uses of the funds.

Ray Rangkuti, the director of Civic Circle of Indonesia, or Lima, said on Tuesday that without this information, the reports meant little.

“The bank account details of the parties raise questions,” he said. “How could a party that only has several hundreds of millions of rupiah in its account explain how it funded its television ads that were worth billions?”

The General Elections Commission, or KPU, released the account details on Monday.

The amounts held by the bigger parties varied widely, with the Golkar Party claiming to have a miniscule Rp 156.3 million ($13,025), compared to the Democratic Party’s Rp 7.02 billion and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle’s, or PDI-P, Rp 1 billion. The Great Indonesia Movement Party, or Gerindra, reported having the deepest pockets, with Rp 15 billion in its bank accounts.

Those parties have been running TV ads since last year.

Jeirry Sumampow of the People’s Voter Education network called most of the bank account details “not realistic,” blaming them on “weak regulations.”

“The KPU is not firm enough to uphold the regulations and require the parties to make sufficient reports,” Jeirry said.

While the election law outlines only minimal requirements for financial reporting, KPU regulations require more robust disclosures, including the names and addresses of donors and the amount of each donation. Both Ray and Jeirry agreed that the parties worried only about breaching the law, treating the KPU
regulation as a mere afterthought.

KPU member I Gusti Putu Artha acknowledged that the KPU would not force political parties to provide complete financial statements before the elections. “They only have to submit the reports on campaign fund spending 15 days after the election day.”

Ray, of Lima, was skeptical this was sufficient. “Certainly, the parties would not breach the law,” he said of the recently submitted reports. “But here we are relying on the parties’ goodwill.”

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Security Beefed Up in Time for Elections

Jakarta Globe
March 10, 2009
Farouk Arnaz

Plans by the National Police to provide additional security during the legislative and presidential elections have already swung into action in regions that have seen periods of local conflict in recent years.

More than 600 Mobile Brigade, or Brimob, officers normally based in Depok near Jakarta have been deployed recently to Papua, Maluku and Aceh.

National Police Chief Gen. Bambang Hendarso Danuri said on Monday the officers would remain there until Oct. 20, the date on which the newly elected president and vice president were scheduled to be inaugurated.

He said the police had classified polling stations in the three provinces in the “prone to conflict” category, meaning each would be secured on polling day by at least two police officers and four local civilian police auxiliaries. “We are not underestimating the situation in those provinces,” Bambang said.

The police would remain particularly alert to any possibility of a terrorist threat during the elections, Bambang added.

“Do not give them any chance to strike, that’s the key,” Bambang said. “There are several places in Indonesia where we still have our best men stationed in order to catch terrorists.”

Insp. Gen. Saleh Saaf, head of the National Police intelligence unit, said the reason some polling stations were categorized as “prone to conflict” was based not only on security concerns, but also because they were located in remote and inaccessible areas.

“In relation to Ambon and Papua, we already have experienced how tough it is to get the election logistics in place there,” he said.

Papua Governor Barnabas Suebu recently appealed for government help to ensure election materials reached remote and inaccessible areas, fearing that without government support, deliveries to the subdistrict level would be delayed.

In Papua Province, some 70 percent of election materials such as voting papers and polling booths must be delivered by air, while the rest are delivered by land, sea and river.

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Police Told to Bump Up Security For Elections in Unstable Provinces

Jakarta Globe
March 12, 2009
Muninggar Sri Saraswati

The Indonesian police should be on alert for possible elections-related conflict in regions that have witnessed “particularly bitter” local election disputes or regions that have proposed new administration divisions, an analyst suggested on Wednesday.
The National Police headquarters recently dispatched more than 600 Mobile Brigade, or Brimob, officers to Papua, Maluku and Aceh provinces, all of which have experienced internal conflicts in the past.
The additional officers are stationed in the regions until Oct. 20, the scheduled inauguration day for the newly-elected president and vice president, as police predict possible tensions in those regions.
Sidney Jones, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group’s Asia Program, said police should pay particular attention to East Java and North Maluku provinces, where there have been disputes in gubernatorial elections.
“These regions in particular deserve a lot of attention because of the possible leftover conflicts,” she said on Wednesday, but added that any disputes there would be unlikely to spur widespread violence.
The East Java gubernatorial elections fell into dispute after candidate Khofifah Indar Parawansa lost to Sukarwo by a slim margin. After months of legal rows in the Constitutional Court, Sukarwo was named the East Java governor, to the dismay of Khofifah’s supporters.
In North Maluku, the gubernatorial elections were marred with violence on the streets. It took more than a year before the elected winner of the elections was announced.
Apart from those two regions, Jones mentioned Tapanuli, a regency in North Sumatra which has demanded that it become its own province.
Tapanuli was thrust into the national spotlight recently when supporters of a new breakaway province mobbed North Sumatra council chairman and Golkar councillor Abdul Aziz Angkat during a violent protest. Abdul died shortly thereafter.
Jones said the region was worth monitoring, as the Tapanuli issue had religious overtones that could potentially lead to broader communal conflict.
Many people had assumed that Christian politicians were the driving force for the establishment of a Tapanuli province, Jones said. Radical groups such as Hizbut Tahrir Indonesia had then seized upon those religious tensions, she said.
Jones lamented the fact that this year’s elections would likely have fewer monitors — both international and domestic. Monitors, she said, are crucial to 
maintaining public trust and granting legitimacy to the electoral process.
Some small parties have raised concerns over their inability to deploy their own monitors for the election-related activities, Jones said.
Disputes over such processes had incited the problems in East Java and North Maluku, she 
added.
However, Jones believed that technical issues would not influence the result of the elections.

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Papuans rally in call for a referendum

Cenderawasih Post
March 11, 2009
Abridged translation by TAPOL

Several hundred Papuans, rallying in the name of the National Action Committee of the West  Papuan People took to the streets in Jayapura on Wednesday, calling for a referendum on Papua's right to independence.

Among the crowd were students, elderly people and a number of women. They marched to the office of the DPRP, the Papuan regional council, in a rally led by  Victor Yemo and Markus Yamo, coordinator from Manokwari.

They carried banners bearing the following: Review the 1969 Act of Free choice, Release all Political Prisoners Unconditionally, Special Autonomy is treachery and Referendum Now!

Leaflets distributed to the public said that the forthcoming elections were not a solution for Papua. The leaflets were emblazoned with the slogan: Freedom Yes, General Election No.

A representative from Bird's Head described Indonesia as the worst human rights violator of all. He said Special Autonomy (OTSUS) had brought no improvements. A woman speaker spoke on behalf of the resistance army, TPN. She said they were fully committed to Papua's struggle for independence which, she was confident, would soon arrive.

One young speaker who said that he was from Timor Leste, said that Timor supports Papua's struggle.

Speakers also criticised the candidates in the 2009 elections because they would not change anything. They said that OTSUS had failed to protect the rights of the indigenous people of Papua in health and education, and were only sending more and more troops to Papua. They criticised members of the DPRP for failing to improve the situation and said that they had caused many horizontal conflicts. There were also calls for the elections to be boycotted.

Speeches at the rally continued for three hours. As part of an action to condemn the political parties, six GOLKAR flags were pulled down and trampled underfoot, then left by the roadside.

Several of the speakers drew attention to Indonesia's presidents, saying that from the days of Suharto, through to Habibie and Megawati, conditions for Papua were very bad. It was only the presidency of Gus 
Dur that had come like a breath of fresh air and he alone had refrained from condemning the use of the Papuan flag.

After rallying at the office of the provincial goverment, a small delegation was able to meet John Ibo who heads the local government for ten minutes. After the meeting, the large crowd dispersed peacefully.

The chief of police of Jayapura, Roberth Djoenso, said that in preparation for the rally, two special units had been located to the area. The police had also conducted raids in Taman Imbi, Jayapura, Entrop South Jayapura on the evening before.

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Boycotting the Elections is No Solution

Cenderawasih Pos
March 12, 2009
Item slightly abridged in translation. TAPOL

The call made during a rally by the National Action Committee of the West Papuan People during a demo at the office of the DPRP earlier this week, which included a call to boycott the election has provoke responses from a number of political parties.

Paskalis Kosay, deputy chairman of the West Papua branch of GOLKAR, described this as nothing more than an expression of the political dynamics in Papua and everyone is entitled to do that. 'If there is a boycott that will just be local here in Papua. The organisation of the election is already very advanced and (a boycott) will have no effect, even for the parties themselves. It depends on people whether they want to boycott and they shouldn't disturb thse who want to vote.' Furthermore, he said, boycotting the election wont guarantee that there will be a resolution of the Papuan question. The Papuan question is a national problem, he said.

As regards the calls being made for a referendum, Kosay said this was an expression of society's dissatisfaction with the way OTSUS (Special Autonomy) is being implemented. 'The rights of the indigenous people are not being properly accommodated as a result of which people haven't experienced any improvements in the their living conditions.'

Yanni, chairman of the regional branch of Partai Bintang Reformasi 
(Star Reform Party) also thought that boycotting the election will change nothing in Papua. 'It could even make things worse and be harmful for us,' he (she?) said. 'I therefore think it is better for people to use their vote which could be very important for Papua for the next 5 years.' As for having a referendum,  Yanni said that it was necessary for  the government and the legislature to correct themselves and decided how to do better so as to ensure that the people's aspirations about their conditions can be realised.

Dr John Manansang, chairman of Partai Nasional Benteng Kerakyatan Indonesia (National Fortress Party of the Indonesian People) described the call for a  boycott as not being 'very mature' but it was the right of anyone (not to vote). He said that during the next month, he hoped that people will think hard about where Papua is going.' This demands make us realise what we thing about Papua's future and to think about what best needs to be done  for the welfare of the Papuan people.'

But he nevertheless felt that a boycott was not a wise thing to do. He also wondered why peole were calling for a referendum. OTSUS has been in force for eight years but people see it as a failure in that it has not answered the aspirations of the Papuan people. Although, he said, the annual OTSUS budget had been going up every year, people dont see any changes in their living conditions. 'The Papuan people are not prosperous, instead things have got worse, and we should ask ourselves why this is,' he said. If people want independence, the government and the DPRP will have to deal with this, and one way would be to persuade 
the candidates to struggle for the aspirations of the people.

As for Martinus Werimon, chairman of the Papuan branch of Partai Merdeka (Independence Party) he said that the young people should take part in the election. Boycotting the elections wont solve anything, and could only make things worse.' He said that he was one of the Team of 100 which met President Habibie in 1999, when they called for a boycott, but the elections went ahead anyway. In the event, we damaged our own interests because we did not help to decide which candidates to vote for. If we do the same thing again, it means that we are lacking in any wisdom. 'We should call on all Papuans to take part in the elections and use their vote in favour of those Papuans who really want to fight for the aspirations of the Papuan people. 'If people want to abstain, that's okay if there are no candidates who they trust.'

He said that the call for a referendum  was an expression of feelings of dissatisfaction with OTSUS. There have been so many corruption cases with no-one know how the money has been used while in some regions the military were present and intelligence operations were being conducted, all of which has been very upsetting many people.

[Comment:  Whether or not a boycott is justified is for Papuan people to decide but the issue raised by demonstrators earlier this week has provoked a number of very interesting comments which highlight the depth of dissatisfaction felt among senior Papuans who have leading positions in the parties contesting the elections and which were reported at some length by Cenderawasih Pos. It will be interesting to see what the turnout will be on 9 April. Calling for a boycott could have repercussions for those making the call but a low turnout should make those who gain seats in the DPR and who becomes President in October recognise the need to respond to the Papuan call for dialogue which now has the support of Defence Minister Yuwono Sudarsono. TAPOL]

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The Rise of the Democratic Party in a Scarcity of Political Plenty

The Jakarta Post
March 12, 2009
Meidyatama Suryodiningrat, Denpasar, Bali

So much to choose from, so little choice. When Indonesians flock to the polls in the April 9 legislative elections, their ballots will in effect start shaping the presidential election.

The results of the most up-to-date poll released Wednesday by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Jakarta support what other pollsters have already indicated. The Democratic Party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the Golkar Party are likely to overwhelm with up to
half the total votes, with the former holding a significant advantage over the latter two.

All others are distant contenders, unlikely to pose notable resistance.

The particulars of the CSIS survey, conducted in association with the Institute for Social and Economic Research, Education and Information (LP3ES), the University of Indonesia and the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI), also indicate a basic rule of thumb in any election: Campaigns are not a collection of
issues. They focus on a theme and personage.

In the absence of an identifiable theme, voters need a common figure as a focal point for their choice. As the CSIS data shows, nearly one-third of those who opted for the Democratic Party did so not because of the program, but because of the figure behind the party - President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

Similar numbers were also found from supporters of the PDI-P. The presence of chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri held twice the attraction of the party's political platform.

Even though voters will have the choice to directly select legislative candidates, voting behavior is predominantly determined by the party's national figure.

The trend is consistent. In the 2004 legislative elections, more than 50 percent of voters opted to select the party, even though they had the option of choosing an individual candidate.

A study by the Indonesia Survey Institute (LSI) last month found 44 percent of respondents tended to choose the party only, compared to 36 percent who chose candidates, and 12 percent who selected both.

Hence the rarity of a Democratic Party or PDI-P candidate's poster without a montage of either Yudhoyono or Megawati in the background.

This probably explains the phenomenal rise of the Democratic Party and the decline of the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and Golkar.

The Democratic Party is the "new" PKS of the 2009 election, with likely projections suggesting it is riveting voters away from other parties, secular and nationalist alike, and quadrupling their returns.

Riding Yudhoyono's perceived public poise, the Democratic Party has succeeded where the PKS failed to consolidate support in rural areas.

The decision by Vice President Jusuf Kalla to now run as president may have been a consequence of internal political circumstance, but from a campaign strategy point of view, it was a key vote-saving move.

By promoting Kalla's visage, Golkar is galvanizing support for a tangible figure, and more importantly, stealing some of Yudhoyono's thunder by reminding voters that Kalla (and Golkar) too should be credited for the successes of the incumbent administration.

It has been the absence of electable choices, in sea of a dozen self-declared presidential candidates and three dozen parties, which has helped propagate the pro-Yudhoyono wave.

In politics, domestic and international, the prime entities naturally play a balancing role of swaying the balance of power from tipping toward the extremes.

In pre-World War I Europe, it was Britain who swayed the balance of power in the competing rivalries of France and Germany.

In Indonesian politics, it is the established nationalist-secular parties who play that role.

The flamboyant displays of amicability between Golkar and the PDI-P are both a warning and strategic move against the emergence of the Democratic Party as a political powerhouse.

How serious this alliance will be ultimately lies not on Golkar's or the PDI-P's returns on April 9, but on the strength of the Democratic Party in the polls.

A second factor to take into account is Golkar itself. As a political creature, Golkar has always been in government.

In fact, it probably does not know how to be the opposition. Expect the intrigue to continue.

Some have suggested that the most significant number in all polls has been the consistent high number of undecideds, and that half of those who responded for a certain party said their vote could change.

But late-deciding voters will want their vote to matter. Given the predominance of the Democratic Party, the PDI-P and Golkar in the public debate, it is safe to assume that their choice will be shaped by the prevailing discourse.

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Time is Running Out

The Jakarta Post
March 13, 2009
Editorial

The legislative election is less than a month away. However, there is not yet a guarantee that the election will be smooth, let alone be on time. Up to now, there are two minor but crucial steps that the General Elections Commission (KPU) has yet to completely settle ­ the availability of ballot papers across the country and the practical method of casting the votes.

The availability of ballot papers is necessary to ensure that the April 9 election will be held on time and that all the voters will get their ballot papers on election day. Meanwhile, the true and proper method of casting the votes is similarly important to prevent voters from ticking the wrong choice and to avoid invalid votes.

The media have repeatedly reported many cases of damaged ballot papers and the unavailability of ballot papers in some regions. As of the initial March 7 deadline, only 60 percent of ballots for the legislative election have been printed, with some regencies claiming not to have received the ballots despite the deadline.

The local elections commission in Sidoarjo, East Java, recently reported some 1,500 invalid ballots out of a total 1.2 million ballots that the commission received from the KPU. In Banjarmasin, South Kalimantan, all of the 441,585 ballots sent to the local elections commi- ssion were physically damaged, while in Riau, some 64,000 ballots were damaged after the local elections commission office was inundated by floodwater. The
most shocking was the finding of some 2.3 million invalid ballots for the East Jakarta electoral region, delivered with several printing mistakes among other errors.

Beside the unavailability of ballots, the failure of the elections commission to introduce the correct and proper way of casting the votes to the public barely a month ahead of the election will also be a considerable constraint in this year’s election. The number of invalid votes is feared to be high as several simulations have revealed that voters marked their papers incorrectly.

Critics have partly blamed all these poor preparations on the minimal experience of the current KPU members in organizing such a big political event ­ involving some 170 million registered voters spread over 483 regencies/cities in 33 provinces. They said that there should have been one or two of the seven- member KPU who had been involved in the organization of the previous 2004 general election to help ensure the smooth transfer of knowledge to the completely new commission members, at least on how to organize such a huge event.

Knowledge of the election mechanism and regulations is not enough, as members of the elections commission are also required to have knowledge and experience in managing technical and administrative tasks, such as ballot printing and distribution.

We are now still in the preparation stage of the election. Unless it is properly and seriously handled, it will be
difficult to hold the election on time.

Yes, there is still time to settle all these administrative and technical problems. But as time is running out, unless there are crash programs and serious attention paid by the KPU, we may expect a delay in the organization of the election. But that would be the very last resort.

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Handouts Kick Off Indonesian Election Campaign

The Sydney Morning Herald
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Tom Allard In Jakarta with Karuni Rompies

FOR many Indonesian villagers, the first signs that an election is around the corner are the posters, colourful flags and bunting affixed to every structure in their neighbourhood.

The second is a visit from a party official offering money, food and other benefits in exchange for their votes.

For the family of Sumarna and Hani, a young couple from Cikalong Kulon village in West Java, it was an offer of free health insurance that swayed them to sign up for Gerindra, the party of former Soeharto-era general Prabowo Subianto.

"So I gave them a copy of my identity card and now I'm a member. That's it," Sumarna said. Gerindra signed up 15 members of the family in all, giving them a T-shirt and 5000 rupiah (65 cents) as well for their support.

It's a strategy that explains how Mr Prabowo's fledgling party has managed to recruit 11 million members in just a year. But it also points to a wider phenomena in Indonesia: money politics that extends from small handouts to poor villagers to a slew of bribery and corruption scandals that have hit the national legislature.

In nearby Cisarandi village, it's the PKS, the Islamic party that prides itself on its anti-corruption credentials, that has been handing out the goodies. In this case, bags of rice and sugar have been handed out at one quarter the cost an Indonesian would pay at the market.

Suhendi, a social worker who regularly visits the village, says that, as the election date draws nearer, the gifts and disbursements will become more frequent and larger.

"It is a form of compensation for the people from political parties who always abandon them after being elected," Suhendi said.

From Monday, the election campaign formally begins for

Indonesia's house of representatives before polling day on April 9. It is a huge exercise in democracy, Indonesia-style. More than 170 million voters will choose from almost 12,000 candidates from 38 political parties contesting 560 seats.

The house of representatives, or Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat, is an important law-making body but the election results will also have a critical bearing on an even bigger race to be held later in the year, the presidency.

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Partai Demokrat is polling best with about 25 per cent support. Next is the Democratic Party of Struggle or PDI-P, the party of Megawati Soekarnoputri, the former president famous for not returning John Howard's calls.

Golkar, Soeharto's political vehicle and the party of vice-president Jusuf Kalla, is trailing in third.

Even so, as much as a quarter of Indonesia's voters are undecided, which is why the campaign - and the doling out of largesse by parties - is so important. What concerns anti-corruption advocates is that the parliament, at the apex of Indonesia's money politics, will remain populated by members angling for their personal interests rather than that of the public they serve.

"It's very costly to get into the DPR. People tend to invest a lot of money of their own, or they have a lot of money invested in them by donors," said Frenky Simanjuntak, manager of policy and research at Transparency International.

"When they are in parliament, they have the need to recoup or pay back that investment."

Kevin O'Rourke, a political analyst in Jakarta and author of the Reformasi newsletter, sees the money politics in Indonesia as one aspect of the "patronage legacy" from the long dictatorship of Soeharto that ended barely a decade ago. Still, he said Indonesia is improving.

A change to the electoral law means that voters can now choose individuals rather than just a pre-determined list of party candidates. That means politicians in the new legislature should be more accountable to voters, O'Rourke argued.

Kacung Maridjan, a political analyst at the Airlangga University, sees it differently.

He told the Jakarta Post that the new system means that aspiring politicians are turning their attention away from bribing party bosses to now directly "buy" as many votes as possible from constituents.

In the current parliament, nine DPR members have been arrested for corruption. The latest, earlier this month, was Abdul Hadi Jamal, who was caught accepting $140,000 in exchange for his support in awarding construction projects to a businessman. He confessed it's not the first time he has taken a large bribe.

Adnan Topan Husodo from Indonesian Corruption Watch, a non-government group, said the nine arrests are just the "tip of the iceberg". He points to the case where the former central bank governor and other officials were sentenced to prison terms for bribing 52 DPR members.

Yet only two of the DPR members who took the bribes have been arrested. Among those implicated but have not been sanctioned are two members of President Yudhoyono's cabinet.

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