Election news digest 13, 8-14 April 2009

Contents:

Indonesia’s Elections: A Stage-Managed Affair [7 April]
While the local and international media write effusively about the flourishing of democracy in the world’s largest Muslim nation, the election is dominated by many of the same right-wing parties and political figures that operated under the Suharto dictatorship prior to 1998. While the election is not the foregone conclusion that polls were under Suharto, onerous restrictions continue to apply. With the exception of those contesting in Aceh province, parties must meet stringent requirements to demonstrate broad support across the country. Parties defined as Marxist are banned.  [full story…]

Indonesia's Ex-Generals Seek Comeback - By Vote [8 April]
After the fall of president Suharto in 1998, Indonesia's powerful military found itself sidelined by enthusiasm for the nation's nascent democracy. But more than a decade later, many former military officers are again vying for roles in the Indonesian power game - this time via the ballot box.  [full story…]

Also: Militia chief who led E Timor massacres vies to be lawmaker [8 April] [full story…]

Wiranto, Prabowo, Together Again [14 April] [full story…]

International and Local Election-Observer Organizations to monitor Aceh Polls [8 April]
Eight foreign election-observer organizations along with more than ten national and local organizations have already begun monitoring election activities in readiness for Thursday’s event in Aceh Province. [full story…]

Also: IHT in Aceh: Democracy in Indonesia: The Next Test [9 April] [full story…]

Aceh local parties seek full implementation of Helsinki pact [11 April] [full story…]

Aceh Party claims victory [11 April] [full story…]

Scenarios-Possible Investment Outcomes From Indonesia's Polls [8 April]
These elections come at a critical time for the Indonesian economy.  Here are some potential investment implications as a result of possible election outcomes, placed in order of the most likely to least likely based on polls. [full story…]

Voters want more female reps [8 April]
Underrepresented for decades, women candidates received a major boost in their struggle for legislative seats as a survey revealed that 84.5 percent of voters saw women and men as equal in politics. When asked if they supported female candidates, 81.6 percent said yes. [full story…]

Also: JP: Why I will give my votes to woman candidates [8 April] [full story…]

Inside Indonesia: Democracy yes, accountability no?  [April]
Indonesia is now a decade into what is, in demographic terms, the biggest democratic experiment since India became the worlds largest democracy in 1947. There have been few if any greater popular political triumphs in the past decade than Indonesian democratisation.  But democracy is supposed to make leaders accountable. And yet to a remarkable degree, this has not been the case in Indonesia. [full story…]

HRW: Release Election Critics, Investigate Violence [8 April]
The Indonesian government should conduct impartial investigations into pre-election violence and free all peaceful critics arrested in the period leading up to parliamentary elections on April 9, 2009, Human Rights Watch said today. [full story…]

Kontras: Incidents in Papua prior to 2009 elections [9 April]
KontraS regrets the occurrence of several incidents of violence prior to the elections in Papua which have spread a sense of anxiety among Papuan people. The latest was an incident last night when eight students were arrested following an attack on the head office of the police in Abepura and a fire at the office of the Rector of Cenderawasih University in Waena. [full statement…]

Also: TAPOL: Papua violence mars Indonesian elections [9 April] [full story…]

Pre-Election Violence Hits Papua [10 April] [full story…]

Papua Calm After Deadly Incidents [11 April] [full story…]

Jakarta Post editorial: Indonesia Decides Today [9 April]
This will be the third truly free and fair election Indonesia has held since it got rid of dictator Soeharto in 1998 and ushered in a new era of democracy. The consensus nationwide since then is that Indonesia should build this nation ­ in spite of its diversity in race, ethnicity, culture, language and religion ­ on the basis of democracy. Admittedly, we do not yet have a perfect democracy, but as long as each election is an improvement over the previous one, we should be content. After all, we are still essentially experimenting with our democracy. [full story…]

Also: Time to Vote! (inc. polling schedule) [9 April] [full story…]

Economist: Many votes to count [9 April] [full story…]

Jakarta Globe editorial: A Successful Exercise In Democracy [10 April] [full story…]

Washington Post: Indonesia Holds Fast To Secular Politics [9 April]
Most voters in the world's largest majority-Muslim country are expected to cast their ballots for secular parties. As political Islam gains strength globally, it has achieved little electoral success in Indonesia. Though polls show Indonesians becoming more religiously observant in their private lives, surveys also suggest this shift will not translate into significant support for Islamist politics in parliamentary elections Thursday or in presidential elections scheduled for July. [full story…]

FT: Indonesian president wins voters’ approval [9 April]
Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono received a strong endorsement on Thursday after his Democrat Party almost tripled its support to win the most votes in the parliamentary election while the two other big parties lost ground, according to three surveys using a statistically representative selection of results. [full story…]

Also: Calls to oust Kalla after poor showing [12 April] [full story…]

Internal Rifts Broaden At Golkar, PPP [13 April] [full story…]

‘Golden Triangle’ Tantamount To Break Up [13 April] [full story…]

Hundreds of irregularities in Indonesia vote: official [11 April]
Indonesia's general elections have been marred by hundreds of complaints about irregularities, officials said Saturday, raising questions about the legitimacy of the vote in some areas. [full story…]

Also: Elections seriously flawed [12 April] [full story…]

Rivals Rally Against Yudhoyono [13 April] [full story…]

Exit poll finds many voters confused by voting system [14 April] [full story…]

Commentary: Indonesia, a democracy teetering toward a police state [11 April]
By and large, these elections have reaffirmed Indonesia’s claim as the world’s third largest democracy.  As always, somebody has to spoil the day, and this time, of all people or institutions, it’s the National Police — the very force that is supposed to ensure the elections proceed in a democratic, free and fair fashion.  [full story…]

Also: Asian Human Rights Commission: Unjust Democracy [9 April] [full statement…]

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Indonesia’s Elections: A Stage-Managed Affair

World Socialist Web Site (wsws.org) Published by the
International Committee of the Fourth International (ICFI)
April 7, 2009
John Roberts and Peter Symonds

Indonesia’s 170 million voters are due to vote in national parliamentary elections on April 9 that will set the stage for presidential elections in July. While the local and international media write effusively about the flourishing of democracy in the world’s largest Muslim nation, the election is dominated by many of the same right-wing parties and political figures that operated under the Suharto dictatorship prior to 1998.

While the election is not the foregone conclusion that polls were under Suharto, onerous restrictions continue to apply. With the exception of those contesting in Aceh province, parties must meet stringent requirements to demonstrate broad support across the country. Parties defined as Marxist are banned.

For the presidential election, the rules have been further tightened. A candidate must have the endorsement of 20 percent of parliamentarians elected in this week’s election or a party that gained at least 25 percent of the popular vote. The requirement ensures that there will be at most four candidates—all from the political establishment.

In all, 38 parties have qualified to stand for the parliamentary elections. Voting is first-past-the post and to win any seats a party must gain 2.5 percent of the national vote. Another six parties are running in Aceh where a peace deal in 2005 that ended a long running separatist insurgency allows for parties that are based only in that province.

The election in Aceh is taking place under a heavy security presence, which is to be boosted by an additional 1,000 soldiers and 260 national police. A string of shootings and grenade attacks have taken place this year, including on the offices of Partei Aceh, the political vehicle of the Free Aceh Movement
(GAM).

Three parties dominate the national stage. The Democratic Party formed by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono just prior to the 2004 elections is in the lead. A poll by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) last month put support for the party at 26.6 percent, up from 24.3 percent in its previous survey. At the 2004 election, it won just over 7 percent of the vote.

The Democratic Party is heavily reliant on the present popularity of the president, which, according to the same poll, stands at 52.5 percent compared to just 18.5 percent for Megawati Sukarnoputri, his main rival. Yudhoyono, a Suharto era general, was Sukarnoputri’s chief security minister before quitting her administration in 2004 and running in the country’s first direct presidential election.

Yudhoyono has significant backing in ruling circles in Indonesia and internationally as a result of his free market agenda. He came to power in 2004 declaring that his administration would be “pro-growth, pro-poor and pro-employment” and announced a series of measures designed to boost foreign investment and assist
businesses. A gathering of foreign chambers of commerce and industry in Jakarta last month gave Yudhoyono a public vote of confidence, promising to continue investing.

The Indonesian economy has been hit by the global recession but not to the same extent as some other Asian countries, which are more heavily dependent on exports. Indonesian exports in value terms declined by 36 percent year-on-year in January and the central bank is predicting an overall fall of 25 to 28 percent
for 2009. Economic growth is falling from 6.1 percent in 2008 to an expected official figure of around 4 percent.

Yudhoyono has been able to make limited concessions to voters. Falling oil prices have allowed the government to reduce fuel prices. Previously, cutbacks to state subsidies had led to higher energy prices and growing popular discontent. The administration has also given a pay rise of more than one third to government employees to offset rising prices and promised a $6.1 billion stimulus package, mostly in the form of tax cuts.

While he attempts to maintain a democratic façade, Yudhoyono retains intimate ties to the Indonesian military (TNI). At the time of Suharto’s fall, Yudhoyono was in charge of the military’s political and social affairs section and was thus centrally involved in propping up the junta. After 1998, he, like other generals, suddenly became a proponent of reformasi. As coordinating security minister under Megawati, he was
responsible for ruthless crackdowns on separatist movements in Aceh and Papua.

The US backed Yudhoyono as means of renewing ties between the American and Indonesian militaries under the guise of the bogus “war on terrorism”. Shortly after he was installed as president, Washington overturned a ban on the training of Indonesian officers, imposed after the military’s massacre of pro-independence protesters in East Timor in 1991. While a peace deal was struck in Aceh in 2005, the military has continued its abuses in West Papua under Yudhoyono.

In large measure, Yudhoyono’s ratings in opinion polls are by default—many voters simply see no alternative. Megawati and her Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P) were deeply discredited by her period in office from 2001 to 2004. She and her immediate predecessor—Abdurrahman Wahid—were widely blamed for the continuing high unemployment and deteriorating living standards that followed the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, which devastated the Indonesian economy.

While Megawati and Wahid were promoted as “reformers” after Suharto’s fall, their chief role was to bring the reformasi movement under control and to ensure that the state apparatus, including the military, remained intact. The British-based Economist magazine aptly described their function this week: “Blink, and reformasi looks less like the revolution it seemed to herald and more like a tactical manoeuvre to help the old Jakarta elite to cling to power.”

Far from reformasi producing any major reforms, the political party of the Suharto regime—Golkar—and generals such as Yudhoyono were able to repackage themselves. Suharto and his close cronies were not convicted for any of their many crimes. Although Golkar’s support has dropped from 21.6 percent in 2004
to 13.7 percent, it remains the third major party contesting this week’s election.

The three main parties—Democratic, PDI-P and Golkar—have no fundamental differences. While claiming to be “pro-poor” and concerned about the plight of working people, all have backed the pro-business agenda implemented over the past five years by Yudhoyono. Golkar leader Jusuf Kalla has been Yudhoyono’s vice
president. Other Golkar figures have been prominent in the cabinet. While nominally in opposition, the PDI-P has raised few objections to government policy.

Not surprisingly, the election campaign has been characterised by handouts, cheap glitz and empty promises. The Economist described “a carnival of democratic competition: flag-waving, horn-honking processions; television-advertising blitzes; mass rallies with a few speeches, gifts of free T-shirts, 20,000
rupiah notes ($US2) and, most important, singing and dancing.” It went on to declare that “the absence of political debate... is also dispiriting”.

Commentary on the election has been focussed mainly on speculation as to who will emerge as the main contenders in the presidential poll. Yudhoyono is yet to decide who will be his vice-presidential running mate after Kalla declared his intention to stand for the presidency himself. All the other parties have begun manoeuvring behind the scenes to sound out possible alliances to meet the strict requirements for a presidential nomination.

Possible allies include the Islamist-based Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) which won more than 7 percent of the vote in 2004 and a large number of seats in Jakarta. The party was initiated by former student activists and attracted significant support among young middle class Muslims alienated by the major parties. While it attracted more than 100,000 to a rally in Jakarta last week, its support has stagnated as its elected members at the national and provincial levels are increasingly viewed as part of the political elite.

Two other former Suharto-era generals have formed their own political parties. Prabowo Subianto, the divorced husband of one of Suharto’s daughters, established the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) last year. His billionaire brother Hashim Djojohadikusimo has funded a lavish advertising campaign and handouts to voters. Prabowo was head of the notorious Kopassus special forces that were responsible for some of the regime’s worst crimes, including arbitrary arrests and the killing of political opponents.

Wiranto, who was head of the armed forces at the time of Suharto’s fall, has formed the Peoples Conscience Party. He was Golkar’s presidential candidate in 2004 but was eliminated in the first round of voting. Wiranto was in charge of the military when it backed violent attacks by various pro-Indonesian
militias against independence supporters in East Timor in 1999.

One indication of widespread popular disaffection is the rising number of undecided voters and those who intend not to vote. Known in Indonesia as golput—literally white paper, the rate of voter abstention rose from just 5 percent in 1999 to 25 percent in 2004. Pollster Indo Barometer estimates the golput rate could
be as high as 40 percent in this week’s election.

Whatever the outcome of the parliamentary elections, the presidential poll in July is far from clear. As the full impact of the global economic crisis results in job losses, rising unemployment and poverty, the widespread alienation could soon turn to anger, upsetting all of the behind-the-scenes machinations currently underway.

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Indonesia's Ex-Generals Seek Comeback - By Vote

South China Morning Post
Wednesday, April 8, 2009

After waiting in the wings, Indonesia's retired military officers are seeking a new kind of power in tomorrow's
elections, writes Fabio Scarpello

After the fall of president Suharto in 1998, Indonesia's powerful military found itself sidelined by enthusiasm for the nation's nascent democracy.

But more than a decade later, many former military officers are again vying for roles in the Indonesian power game - this time via the ballot box.

Hundreds of former officers have shed their uniforms for political colours and will be seeking election in tomorrow's nationwide polls, raising concerns about their motives and goals.

Dewi Fortuna Anwar of the Centre for Political and Regional Studies said people should be alert, but not alarmed. "Previously, the TNI's [military] political involvement was institutionalised, but now it is on an individual basis. It is quite different," she said.

Retired officers brought with them a professionalism often lacking among civilian politicians, but they also brought a mindset that might lead to impatience with the democratic process, she said. "If too many of them are elected to parliament, there is a risk that this mindset could influence the overall political culture."

Bantarto Bantoro, director of the Institute for Defence and Security Studies, said former officers had every right to take part in the election, but they must demonstrate they had left their militarist outlook behind. "They have to show commitment to the reform agenda, which includes reform of the TNI."

He also called for monitoring anyone who might try to exploit the presence of former officers in parliament. "There are many people who seek support from these ex-military figures, possibly including the current military leadership."

TNI chief General Djoko Santoso recently raised eyebrows for a politically laden comment made to the Kompas newspaper, where he warned that the elections would be fraught with threats that could "disturb national stability". Among these threats, he indicated the presence of too many political parties, a long
campaign period and too many candidates.

His comments were interpreted as a sign of the difficulties by the TNI to disengage fully from the political process.

Defence Minister Juwono Sudarsono has, however, said that the military is committed to helping establish good governance based on democratic principles.

"It means the military's role must be decreased, while civilians must be given broader ones through non-governmental organisations, political parties, local governments and police departments," he said.

Tapol, a UK-based organisation that monitors human rights in Indonesia, says the influx of retired officers in the election is the third wave of military involvement in politics.

Their political aspirations later re-emerged with the Golkar party, established to counter the growing  influence of the PKI, the Indonesian Communist Party.

Golkar became the political machine of Suharto after he seized power in October 1965.

"For more than three decades, Suharto then presided over a military dictatorship whose key doctrine was dwifungsi, or dual function, which granted the military the right to play a role in politics. Soldiers were not allowed to vote, but generals were allotted up to 100 seats in the national and regional parliaments," Tapol writes.

Among the main parties, former officers have a secondary role in Golkar and in former president Megawati Sukarnoputri's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, but they maintain a stronger presence in President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party. This party is chaired by retired colonel Hadi Utomo and sees retired major general Nur Aman and retired police commissioner general Nurfaizi sitting on the board.

Former officers are also present in the Islamic parties, especially in the Star Crescent Party, which has three on its board.

Some generals, such as Wiranto and Prabowo Subianto, have established their own parties as a platform for presidential ambitions.

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Militia chief who led E Timor massacres vies to be lawmaker

South China Morning Post
Wednesday, April 8, 2009

The former leader of a pro-Jakarta civilian militia in East Timor has rejected claims he still has links to Indonesia's military as he seeks election to "serve the people".

Eurico Guterres, a Catholic living in Kupang, the capital of East Nusa Tenggara, the province that includes West Timor, is vying for a seat in the national parliament under the banner of the National Mandate Party (PAN), a moderate Muslim party.

He was head of the Aitarak militia during East Timor's vote for independence in 1999. On April 17 that year, he went on national television to incite thousands of militiamen to kill pro-independence supporters, and was a key figure in massacres in which more than 200 people were killed.

"I want to fight for the aspirations of people in East Nusa Tenggara. This province is one of the poorest and least successful in the country, and I want to help change that," he said of his bid for politics. "Improving education and health care are my priorities."

He said he had accepted PAN's request to join it because it was a "nationalistic party". He claimed that he had funded his campaign by taking a loan against his house.

Throughout 1999, he engaged in many acts of violence, while staying in touch with top Indonesian military officials. He was very close to the army's Kopassus chief, Prabowo Subianto, who was accused of running "terror squads" in East Timor and is now a presidential hopeful leading the Gerindra party.

Fabio Scarpello

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Wiranto, Prabowo, Together Again

The Jakarta Globe
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Markus Junianto Sihaloho & Muninggar Sri Saraswati

Wiranto and Prabowo Subianto, two former New Order generals who had been engaged in their own personal cold war since the fall of dictator Suharto, announced on Thursday the formation of a joint team involving a total of 23 political parties to investigate alleged election irregularities and fraud.

It was one of the few public meetings between the pair in 11 years. In 1998, Wiranto, who is now the chairman of the People’s Conscience Party, or Hanura, was the head of the Indonesian military, while Prabowo, who now chairs the advisory board of the Great Indonesia Movement Party, or Gerindra, commanded the Army Strategic Command.

Exactly what happened in 1998 remains unclear, but after a power play for control of the military, Wiranto became minister of defense in the cabinet of former President BJ Habibie, while Prabowo was dismissed from the military, though never jailed, for the abduction of 24 prodemocracy activists in 1998. Thirteen
of the activists are still missing.

Now presidential candidates from their respective parties, the two met to form the investigative team to probe the controversial final voter list irregularities and to end the “political oligarchy” led by incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, also a former general whose Democratic Party won a
major victory in the April 9 legislative elections according to quick counts.

“The incumbent says ‘continue’ [the government’s policies]. How can we allow the continuation of poverty in this country?” said Prabowo, who was accompanied by senior party members, including former top intelligence official Muchdi Purwoprandjono, who was recently cleared of charges that he ordered the murder of Munir Said Thalib, a prominent human rights activist.

Prabowo, the former son-in-law of Suharto, said a new political power was needed to compete with the status quo group and to ensure fairness during July’s presidential elections. “We, particularly Hanura and Gerindra, have reached a deal to support change. The deal includes 23 parties and other groups,” he said.

The meeting between Prabowo and Wiranto, whom human rights activists want to try for alleged human rights violations during Indonesia’s withdrawal from East Timor in 1999, followed a meeting between Gerindra and 22 parties on Sunday to discuss the election irregularities.

Wiranto said that Hanura and Gerindra had agreed to form the joint team, which would include a legal department and a secretariat, to examine possible irregularities and alleged fraud during the elections. “We will not hesitate to settle this issue legally. We will conduct a movement to reveal what happened,” Wiranto said.

While Wiranto and Prabowo have spoken rarely since the New Order regime, they have not engaged in open conflict either.

Both Wiranto and Prabowo later attempted to run for president in 2004 by attempting to secure the chairmanship of the Golkar Party. The contest was won by Wiranto but he lost in the first round of the presidential elections. Prabowo, for his part, has rarely been seen in public since.

Wiranto said that there was nothing extraordinary in his meeting with Prabowo. “I wonder why people make a fuss about my meeting with Prabowo. I think this is something usual. We fight for change in this country. We need a [new] national economic policy. Hanura and Gerindra fight for that change,” he said.

Prabowo agreed, saying the meeting was a common occurrence, as Wiranto was his former superior.

Wiranto would not rule out the possibility of Hanura and Gerindra forming the basis of a coalition to contest the presidential elections. “Hanura and Gerindra fight for the same political aims, only with different vehicles. So don’t be surprised if we meet to unite our spirit and strength.”

Regarding the brouhaha about the final voter list used for last week’s elections, Constitutional Court Chief Mahfud MD said that political parties would have to settle disputes at the District Court level, not the Constitutional Court. “We could only hear disputes linked to the elections results. For administrative cases, they could go to the District Court,” he said.

The Constitutional Court could not annul the elections result either, but it may change the elections results from the General Elections Commission if political parties could prove that the results were not accurate.

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International and Local Election-Observer Organizations to Monitor Aceh Polls

The Jakarta Globe
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Nurdin Hasan

Banda Aceh. Eight foreign election-observer organizations along with more than ten national and local organizations have already begun monitoring election activities in readiness for Thursday’s event in Aceh Province.

The Deputy Chief of the Aceh Independent Commission on Elections, Ilham Syahputra, said in Banda Aceh on Tuesday that the foreign agencies had not sent many observers.

“The European Union only assigned three observers, and they won’t do a comprehensive monitoring of the election like they did during Aceh’s 2006 gubernatorial election, for which they sent 82 observers.

“This time they will only conduct surveys, though they might come to all the districts and municipalities.”

The head of the European Union team of experts, Vic Butler, said that the team’s mission was to collect information on the election as well as monitor the process, without releasing any statement to the media. They would report their findings to the European Commission in Brussels and the European Union office in
Jakarta.

The other foreign observers represented the Carter Center; the US and Australian embassies; the International Republican Institute; the International Foundation for Electoral Systems; the Asian Network for Free Elections Foundation; and the National Democracy Institute.

Ilham said that in addition to the foreign observers, seven national agencies had obtained General Elections Commission, or KPU, permits to monitor the election in Aceh.

They are the Independent Election Monitoring Committee; Lembaga Survey Indonesia, an independent polling agency; Institute for Social and Economic Research, Education and Information; Garda Santri Nusantara Election Monitoring, an organization of students of Islamic boarding schools; the election watch
committee of the Alumni of Muslim Students Association; and the Public Issue Network.

Six Aceh-based organizations are also involved in election monitoring, namely the Aceh NGO Forum; Community for Aceh Resources Development; Pidie Jaya branch of National Youth Committee; Titian Keadilan, a non-governmental organization; Association of Student Bodies and Youth Groups; and Atjech
Security Group.

In the run-up to the election, Aceh, Indonesia’s western most province — which has enjoyed less than four years of freedom from armed conflict between government security forces and guerillas from the Free Aceh Movement, or GAM — has seen a mounting number of acts of violence, including assassinations,
grenade attacks, terror and intimidation.

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Democracy in Indonesia: The Next Test

For 3rd vote in 10 years, a million candidates and a still-fragile peace

International Herald Tribune
Thursday, April 9, 2009
Peter Gelling, International Herald Tribune

Banda Aceh, Indonesia: -- Indonesians head to the polls for the country's third parliamentary election in 10 years Thursday in what is expected to be a largely peaceful affair for the world's third largest democracy.

The only exception is in the northernmost province of Aceh, where attacks on supporters of the leading local party and mutual suspicion between former independence fighters and the military are threatening a still-fragile peace.

By most accounts, democracy is flourishing in Indonesia, no small feat considering its history of political violence and the turmoil that followed the downfall of Suharto, the country's longtime authoritarian ruler, in 1998. Indonesians have mostly embraced the democratic process, and an energetic press faces few restrictions.

The parliamentary election Thursday is the first in which Indonesians will vote directly for a candidate rather than a political party. It is seen as an important gauge of the country's democratic reforms since the ouster of Suharto.

More than 38 political parties are vying to win at least a fifth of the 560 seats in the national Parliament or 25 percent of the popular vote, which under new election laws would allow them to put forward a candidate to challenge the incumbent, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, in the presidential election in July.

Mr. Yudhoyono and his Democratic Party are widely expected to come out on top in both the parliamentary and presidential elections. But it is not clear if he will be able to win by enough to avoid forming an unstable coalition government. Mr. Yudhoyono was forced to partner with the Golkar party, Suharto's former political vehicle, in order to take the presidency in 2004.

"If he does as well as everyone expects he will in the parliamentary polls, he will be very confident heading into presidential elections and will be able to choose an independent as his vice president, someone as committed to reform as he is," said Mohammad Qodari, a political analyst and pollster. "He is understandably reluctant to pair up with another political party. He always felt he was held back by his partnership with Golkar."

Mr. Yudhoyono, a former general, is the country's first directly elected president. He is credited with helping to stabilize the economy, which has so far weathered the global financial crisis more successfully than any of its regional counterparts. Mr. Yudhoyono's administration has pushed through free-market reforms that have encouraged more foreign investment in a country long considered risky.

His administration has also made strides, though sometimes slowly, in routing endemic graft by establishing an independent court specially tasked with prosecuting corruption cases.

The elections are a huge undertaking for this mostly Muslim country of 240 million people sprawled out over hundreds of far-flung islands, and problems are nearly inevitable. Some 170 million registered voters are expected to choose among 11,000 candidates for the national legislature and about one million candidates for provincial and local legislatures.

During gubernatorial elections in East Java earlier this year, investigators found that voter lists included children, the dead and the fictitious. Election monitors said they were concerned about similar fraud in the national elections.

Also, of about 550,000 polling stations across Indonesia, many had not received ballots a day before polls opened. Still other polling stations reported ballots being destroyed amid heavy rainfall over the last few weeks. A new system for punching the ballots is also expected to cause confusion.

There will be a massive security operation to keep the peace on election day, though only in Aceh, where a surge in violence has taken place in recent months, and in the remote province of Papua, where security officials say there might be problems.

It is in the days and weeks following the election that officials worry disputes could lead to nationwide instability, demonstrations or even violence. Already, several major parties have said they would consider rejecting the results due to the pre-election chaos.

''This could easily turn into a national brawl,'' said Mr. Qodari, the political analyst and pollster. ''There will almost surely be challenges from the losers on both the local and national level. We are all going to court after this election. Let's hope it doesn't spill into the streets.''

Aceh, where local parties will for the first time compete for local seats against the more established national parties, is possibly the region with the greatest potential for instability.

The Free Aceh Movement fought for independence for nearly 30 years before it signed a peace agreement with the Yudhoyono government in 2005, months after the massive tsunami and earthquake that killed 170,000 people in the region.

A central element of the peace deal is the right to establish local political parties.

In the months leading up to the election, dozens of grenade attacks, shootings and other forms of intimidation have been directed toward the Aceh Party, the political vehicle of the former rebels. Five Aceh Party officials have been shot dead by unknown assailants, one as recently as April 4.

''I am, of course, nervous. For instance, I try not to travel the streets late at night,'' said Oki Tiba, a candidate for the Aceh Party. ''The peace here is still tenuous and I worry if the police don't solve these crimes, the peace could be in jeopardy.''

Despite several arrests, the police have remained quiet about who might be behind the attacks. As a result, Banda Aceh is awash in rumors, conspiracy theories, suspicion and paranoia.

Aceh Party officials are careful not to accuse anyone of the attacks publicly, but there is no doubt among the party's rank and file that the military is to blame. Many in the military suspect that the former rebels still harbor hopes for independence and regard Aceh Party success at the polls as a potential threat to national unity.

Others, however, think the attacks amount to personal vendettas among former rebels playing themselves out in the months before elections.

''It's difficult now to analyze who is responsible for the terror and intimidation of the Aceh Party. It could be anybody with any reasons, including personal business,'' said Jafar, 38, a humanitarian worker in the capital, who like many Indonesians goes by one name.

''But one thing for sure is it leads to tension and is disrupting the peace here,'' Jafar said. ''I hope people can
keep a cool head during and after the elections.''

A report by the International Crisis Group in March found little chance of a return to armed conflict in Aceh in the short term. But if the underlying mistrust between the military and the various groups representing the former rebels is not addressed, there could be serious problems in the long term, the report said.

''Getting through the election with a minimum of violence is the short-term goal,'' Robert Templer, the group's Asia director, said in a statement. ''The longer-term objective should be to bolster the peace, but both sides will have to make concrete steps to address problems in their own ranks before any confidence-building measure will work.''

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[Comment: It is of course predictable that local parties would win big support in elections for local assemblies. The problem is that local parties only exist in Aceh. Above all, they are lacking in West Papua where national parties have, during the election campaigning, shown little, if any, attention to conditions in West Papua. TAPOL]

Aceh local parties seek full implementation of Helsinki pact

The Jakarta Post
April 11, 2009
Alfian

BANDA ACEH

Three local Acehnese parties likely to take easy victories in Thursday's legislative election are seeking the full implementation of the Helsinki peace agreement and the settlement of unresolved human rights abuses that occurred during nearly 30 years of bloody conflict.

The peace pact was signed by the government and the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) in 2005 to end the 29-year conflict which claimed more than 2000 lives. The parties claim points within this pact and the 2006 Aceh administration law have not yet been fully implemented, affecting democracy and people's welfare in the area.

The Aceh Party (PA), the Acehnese People's Independent Aspiration Party (SIRA), and the People's Aceh Party (PRA) have all claimed victory in the legislative polls and said that if they gain greater power at the provincial and regency levels they will argue for the pact to be rolled out in full.

The peace agreement stipulates that Aceh should have its own authority in dealing with domestic affairs, with the exception being international relations, defense and security, monetary and fiscal affairs and judicial and religious affairs. Those must remain under control of the central government.

Adnan Beuransyah, spokesperson for the Aceh Party, told The Jakarta Post recently that the terms on power between the provincial administration and the central government were still unclear.

"According to the MOU, all business and investment permits are supposed to be issued by Aceh authorities, but in reality, the current conditions are no different from the past," Adnan said. He claimed permits in two sectors could only be issued with approval from the central government, and this had hampered the inflow of foreign investment to the province and the planned development of Sabang into an international free port.

Adnan said the MOU also stipulated that 70 percent of oil and gas revenue from Aceh would go to the province while the remaining 30 percent would be directed to the central government. "Up until today, there has been no external audit on oil and gas revenues. Aceh has never known how much revenue actually comes from oil and gas exploration."

Vice governor Muhammad Nazar said there were numerous unresolved problems regarding the peace pact which needed to be settled.

Also chairman of the patron board of SIRA, Nazar said to date the regional government had not been involved in calculating the revenue from oil and gas reserves.

SIRA will be seeking a review of the fiscal relationship between the province and the central government in terms of the exploration of natural resources, and will argue that the provincial government should play an active role in calculating the government's revenue from the provincial mining sector.

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Aceh Party claims victory

The Jakarta Post
April 11, 2009

BANDA ACEH: The Aceh Party, established and fully supported by former members of the Free Aceh Movement (GAM), claimed a victory in the legislative election on Thursday.

"Our internal quick count found that the Aceh Party has secured 70 percent of votes for the provincial legislature," the party's spokesman, Adnan Beuransyah, told reporters on Friday.

Adnan said the Aceh Party also dominated the vote in 23 cities and regencies in Aceh, with votes ranging between 50 and 70 percent.

"We even won in Bener Meriah regency which is not one of our strongholds . This victory shows that our party has secured the trust of the Aceh people."

The quick count also shows that President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party had won the majority of votes, up to around 20 percent.

"Aceh people give credit to Pak SBY for his role in bringing peace to Aceh," Adnan said.

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Scenarios-Possible Investment Outcomes From Indonesia's Polls

JAKARTA, April 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia holds parliamentary elections on April 9. The outcome will determine who runs in the more important presidential poll on July 8 and influence how Southeast Asia's biggest economy performs in the next five years.

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democrat Party is in the lead in the opinion polls, but it may still need the support of other parties in parliament. Yudhoyono himself is well ahead of his main rival, Megawati Sukarnoputri, for the presidency.

These elections come at a critical time. Bank Indonesia has forecast GDP growth of 3-4 percent in 2009, slowing from last year's 6.1 percent expansion and below the 6 percent needed to create jobs as more people enter the workforce.

To counter the impact of the global economic crisis, which has hit the rupiah currency and stock market, the government launched a 73.3 trillion rupiah ($6.5 billion) fiscal stimulus plan, partly funded by global and domestic bonds. Here are some potential investment implications as a result of possible election outcomes, placed in order of the most likely to least likely based on polls.

DEMOCRATS LEAD BROAD ALLIANCE, YUDHOYONO RE-ELECTED

Expect business as usual, with relatively slow progress in terms of key reforms.

Yudhoyono is a consensus-seeker. During his first term, when his Democrat Party won 7.5 percent of the votes and had a small number of seats in parliament, he had to rely on other political parties for support and appointed a rainbow cabinet of diverse political interests.

That often hampered his reforms, with his main partner, the Golkar Party, resisting efforts to shake up the overstaffed and inefficient civil service.

If Yudhoyono relies on Golkar again, he may find it hard to overhaul the bureaucracy and push ahead with big infrastructure projects. Improving infrastructure such as roads, ports and power plants is key for cutting business costs and lifting efficiency. But if Yudhoyono relies on an alliance of Islamist parties, they are likely to push for more nationalist policies, including fixed prices, subsidies and limits on foreign investment.

This is the scenario the markets appear to be pricing in for now, so there would be little impact on the rupiah, bonds, and stocks if this turns out to be the outcome.

DEMOCRATS WIN BIGGEST NUMBER OF SEATS, YUDHOYONO RE-ELECTED

A strong showing by the Democrats in parliamentary polls, and a Yudhoyono victory in July would allow the president to take a far more decisive line than in his first term, relying perhaps on just one or two coalition partners.

Investors want decisive government, and a clear win by Yudhoyono and the Democrats would give him a mandate to make more sweeping changes in the civil service, judiciary, military, and police, and to pursue his fight against corruption.

The issue here is whom Yudhoyono picks as his vice president and whom he chooses for the key ministerial posts of finance, economics, energy and mines and state-owned enterprises.

If Yudhoyono's Democrats do well in the parliamentary polls and he doesn't need to rely on the support of other parties, he could pick Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, a reformer popular with investors, to be his vice president.

While investors might prefer to have Indrawati still in charge of economics and finance, as vice president she would probably continue to want to keep a close watch on those portfolios and pick another technocrat as her successor.

A Yudhoyono-Indrawati team would probably also put a more foreign investor-friendly technocrat in charge of the important energy and mines ministry, which has failed to attract enough investment, and in charge of state-owned enterprises where privatisation and efforts to improve efficiency have stalled.

That scenario would surprise on the upside: expect the rupiah to firm against the dollar, Indonesian bond spreads to tighten, and a bounce in the stock market.

PDI-P/GOLKAR FORM COALITION, MEGAWATI WINS

To many investors this is the worst-case scenario: given the history of both parties, it would probably mean more emphasis on traditional money-politics and an end to further reforms.

As president from 2001-2004, Megawati Sukarnoputri disappointed on the reform front, while her husband, the wealthy businessman Taufiq Kiemas, was regarded as being far too closely involved in government affairs.

Golkar is also close to many of the leading business groups and includes several very wealthy businessmen in its top levels.

So a combination of the two parties would probably fail to address conflicts of interest between politicians and their business interests, creating a far-from-level playing field and deterring investment at a time when Indonesia desperately needs capital.

Expect the rupiah to find a new low, bonds to sell off, and stocks to tumble as investors pull out. One possible bright spot: a very weak rupiah might be a plus for exporters.

WILD CARD WIN

Suharto-era ex-generals Prabowo Subianto and Wiranto have formed their own political parties, Gerindra and Hanura. While the polls show both polling well behind Yudhoyono and Megawati, each could form a coalition with several smaller parties and run for president.

Analysts consider this the most worrying outcome, given the human rights track records of both men, and regard it as highly unlikely. It would herald a return to Suharto-style rule. Expect panic-selling across the asset classes.

(Writing by Sara Webb; Editing by Jerry Norton)

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Voters want more female reps

The Jakarta Post
April 8, 2009
Adianto P. Simamora

Underrepresented for decades, women candidates received a major boost in their struggle for legislative seats in Thursday’s polls, a survey revealed on Tuesday.

The survey, conducted by Indo Barometer in early March, involving 1,200 respondents in 33 provinces, revealed that 84.5 percent of voters saw women and men as equal in politics. When asked if they supported female candidates, 81.6 percent said yes.

Using multistage sampling, the survey stated a margin of error of 3 percent.

“But most respondents didn’t agree with women candidates receiving special treatment,” Indo Barometer executive director Muhammad Qodari said on Tuesday.

Qodari referred to special treatment in the light of a recently annulled stipulation in the election law that had required parties to allocate at least 30 percent of their legislative seats to women.

University of Indonesia political expert Ani Soetjipto said the results of the survey had given women’s rights defenders new hope in their quest to improve women’s representation in government.

However, Ani said, the biggest challenges women candidates face are from their political parties, not from the general public.

“Resistance against women taking positions in legislative bodies comes from political parties, because many of them have no internal policies to support women legislators,” Ani said.

Earlier, the coordinator of the Civil Society Alliance for the Revision of Political Laws, Yuda Irlang, predicted that only a few women candidates would secure seats in the House in the incoming polls.

“I think it will be a miracle if more than 68 women legislators gain seats as in previous elections,” Yuda told a recent discussion sponsored by the Women’s Empowerment Movement Foundation and the Association of Independent Journalists in Jakarta.

Most women candidates had neither experience in promoting themselves nor adequate budgets to organize campaigns, Yuda said.

“Women candidates, just like men, have been forced by their constituents to provide money to them,” Yuda said, adding that male candidates usually had more access to funds than their female rivals.

The new election mechanism would hamper women candidates from winning seats — even if they secure enough votes, she said.

“Many dedicated and intellectual women candidates come from small parties which will find it difficult to meet the 2.5 percent parliamentary minimum,” Yuda said.

Only parties that fulfil the threshold will be able to gain house seats.

The Constitutional Court ruling which introduced the open election system (whereby candidates with the most votes win seats), has exacerbated the situation because the onus has been shifted onto individual candidates to garner support for their election campaigns.

“But women candidates will still have opportunities to win seats in provincial or regional legislative councils,” she said.

Women candidates will also have to deal with women voters.

“We discovered this trend in a simulation, where women were more likely to pick men over women for their representatives,” Yuda said.

“This is because many people don’t realise the important role women legislators can play.” Jurnal Perempuan Program Manager Aquino W Hayunta said

Indonesia could emulate countries like Sweden and Rwanda, which had found that electing more women in parliament served them better than governments in other countries. (naf)

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Why I will give my votes to woman candidates

The Jakarta Post
April 8, 2009
Endy M. Bayuni

The general election is just a day away and I have yet to make up my mind about which party and candidates will earn my votes. One thing I am certain is that I will cast all three ballot papers Thursday for women candidates, whichever party they represent.

I will be voting in my neighborhood in South Jakarta and the choices available are: One of 164 candidates fielded by 38 political parties to represent me at the House of Representatives; one of 40-plus candidates for the Regional Representatives Council; and one of a few thousand candidates for the Jakarta Legislative Council.

The 20-day campaign period failed to impress me as I have not been persuaded one way or another. Talking to friends, neighbors and colleagues at work, it appears that I am not the only one in this state of confusion at this very late stage of the election period.

We are what political pundits call the swing voters, whose ballots are up for grabs every five years. Going by the surveys, their number is quite significant. The Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in its survey in February said as many as 50 percent of respondents had either not made up their mind, or that if they had, they could still change their decision come Election Day.

Presumably some of these had been persuaded after the open campaign period which ended Sunday, but I doubt if their number was significantly large if we observed the way the campaign was waged. If anything, many people were persuaded not to vote for this or that party because their campaign rallies, and the traffic congestion they caused, as it may have really inconvenienced them.

It is also almost certain that some of these undecided voters have made up their mind to vote with their feet, taking advantage of the extended weekend holiday which stretches from Thursday, and Good Friday to Saturday and Sunday. I hear there are some attractive holiday packages in recession-hit Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia, besides the normal domestic tourist destinations like Bali and Yogyakarta.

Whoever in the National Election Commission (KPU) picked April 9 for balloting day is an idiot. If voter turnout is low, as KPU fears, they only have themselves to blame. They should know better that between voting in an election, which is voluntary, and taking a long break with the family, most people would go
for the latter.

No such luck for me since my work keeps me from leaving town.

That is why I am determined to use by ballot papers wisely, and make a little difference to the outcome of this election. I have no real party preferences but I have eliminated a few for ideological reasons and those that are too small to really matter. My attention now turns to picking candidates from among the short-listed parties.

I recognize one or two candidates from this short list, but they are old party hacks who have passed their use-by dates. My attention has thus turned to women candidates, taking the advice from friends in women groups.

I agree that women, who account for more than half of the Indonesian population of around 240 million, are still grossly under-represented in politics. Currently, only 11 percent of the 550 members of the House of Representatives are women.

Here are some interesting facts I gathered from listening to women candidates and women organizations in pleading that voters go for women candidates on April 9.

Women politicians are not as corrupt as their male counterparts. We have not heard of any women politician convicted for corruption. One woman who went to jail for high profile corruption scandal last year was a political lobbyist, so she doesn’t count

Women politicians are most likely to understand better and be more sensitive than their male counterparts about social issues such as education, health, family problems, and poverty When dealing with tensions and conflicts or even wars, women politicians are less likely to be gung-ho and macho than male politicians. We are all too familiar with the failures of the government’s security approach to just about everything. Rather than solving problems, they perpetuate them. Sending women to the legislatures may see a more humanistic and developmental approach to the nation’s problems.

Women are more picky when it comes to money, and this is good when it comes to scrutinizing the government budget. I know this from personal experience. My wife handles our household finances. Even President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has Sri Mulyani Indrawati as his finance minister.

Some may argue that the reason why there are no women politicians convicted for corruption was because their number is still too small. But to me, that is all the more reason why we should give women a chance to manage affairs of state. The current legislatures, dominated by men, are just filled with scandals.

The only question that remains for me before I go to the polling station on Thursday is which women to vote for in the three legislatures. I am sure I will figure it out by the evening, either with the help of Google, or from making a few calls, and make my informed choices.

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Democracy yes, accountability no?

Inside Indonesia
Issue 96, April-June 2009

Voters have done everything they can for democracy. The same cannot be said for elites
Dan Slater

Indonesia is now a decade into what is, in demographic terms, the biggest democratic experiment since India became the worlds largest democracy in 1947. Like India, Indonesia has defied the condescending but common conceit that democracy can only work in the West, or in the wealthiest of countries. Once again, the world has witnessed the capacity of an ethnically diverse and broadly impoverished electorate to seize its democratic opportunity with sociable enthusiasm turning out in massive numbers; eschewing partisan conflict and violence; and rejecting the most extreme and intolerant electoral contestants. There have been few if any greater popular political triumphs in the past decade than Indonesian democratisation.

Of course, no one can seriously believe that democracy produces all good things. Democracy does not promise to erase all or even most political and economic problems, and it has surely not done so in Indonesia. All that democracy promises is: (1) the opportunity for ordinary citizens to choose the leaders who they believe will address those problems with the most vigour, intelligence, and integrity; (2) the opportunity to replace leaders who fail to address those problems with new leaders who appear likely to do better; and (3) the expectation that those leaders will be prevented from wantonly abusing their powers of office during the long spells between elections. In three words: choice, removal, and constraint.

Or try just one word: democracy is supposed to make leaders accountable. And yet to a remarkable degree, this has not been the case in Indonesia. To be sure, the democratic institutions that can constrain executive power and bring officeholders to account, such as courts of law and anti-corruption commissions, typically take time to develop. Their weakness in Indonesia is partly a function of democracys newness. But the institutions that allow citizens to select and remove their leaders are not supposed to develop under democracy; they are supposed to define democracy. Elites accountability to voters has not proven elusive because democracy is new, but because elites have actively strived to elude it. Although the introduction of direct presidential elections in 2004 has restored the accountability of elites to voters to some degree, these modest gains are fragile in the extreme, and could easily vanish after the 2009 vote. The popular triumph of democratisation remains in very real danger of being snatched away by the machinations of political elites obsessed with evading accountability and preventing even the possibility of their own removal and replacement.

Cartel
How have Indonesias elected politicians eluded accountability? In the period 1999-2004, they did so by constructing a full-blown party cartel. As in economics, the essence of a cartel in politics is that all major players collude rather than compete. To be more precise, Indonesian party leaders realised they could collude after competing in elections. After Abdurrahman Wahid was elevated to the presidency in 1999, and again after Megawati Sukarnoputri ascended the political pinnacle in 2001, every single significant political party gained a share of executive power, through seats in the cabinet. Everyone was in, and no one was out. Without a viable opposition, Indonesian voters were on the verge of being denied the effective power to replace their elected leaders in the 2004 vote. No meaningful opposition between elections, no meaningful voter choice during elections.

But direct presidential elections changed the game, if not the players. They gave Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) and Jusuf Kalla (JK) the opening to bolt their leading positions in the cartelised cabinet and challenge Megawati for the presidency, even without the endorsement of a major party. SBYs Partai Demokrat gained over 7% of the parliamentary vote, as did the PKS, the only party of any consequence who Megawati had not included in her kabinet gotong-royong. Indonesian voters thus managed to strike a small blow for accountability in the parliamentary elections of 2004, despite Megawati and her allies best efforts to make such an outcome impossible. The Indonesian voters then bloodied the cartels nose again in the 2004 presidential vote, replacing the aloof and unresponsive Megawati with SBY in a landslide.

Since her resounding defeat at the hands of the SBY-JK duet, Megawati has kept her PDI-P out of the cabinet. She has proudly proclaimed that the PDI-P is now an opposition party and, on occasion, behaved accordingly. Fearful of losing a rematch to Megawati in 2009, SBY has governed with a greater sense of urgency and responsiveness than Megawati did during the cartelised period from 1999-2004.

Opposition?
Accountability secured? Far from it. While direct presidential elections disrupted Indonesias party cartel, they did not destroy it. As one of the most prominent veterans of Megawatis cartelised cabinet, SBY was always an unlikely candidate to dismantle it. Instead, he included every party except Golkar, the PDI-P, and PPP in his initial cabinet including the PKS, which was tempted out of active opposition with three cabinet ministries and then he went to work. PPP was quickly lured out of its momentary lapse into an oppositional stance with an offer of three cabinet seats. Golkar was sucked back in next, as SBY doled out five cabinet posts after Vice President Kalla toppled Akbar Tandjung as Golkar leader. A subsequent revolt erupted against Megawati within the PDI-P, led by cartel veterans Laksamana Sukardi and Arifin Panigoro. Their sanctimonious claims to be trying to restore democracy to their party rang rather hollow, considering that they clearly wished to bring the PDI-P back into the patronage-rich executive, denying their entire country a democratic opposition in the process. Since Megawati was the only party leader both strong enough to repel such a challenge, and spiteful enough to refuse to join SBYs new government, the PDI-P has become Indonesias only party in opposition.

Yet a party in opposition is not exactly the same thing as an opposition party. Rather than serving as a consistent and substantive critic of the SBY government in the run-up to the 2009 elections, Megawati and her cartel-crafting husband Taufik Kiemas are working feverishly to position themselves atop a refashioned party cartel anchored in a renewed PDI-P/Golkar alliance after the elections conclude. Poll data suggest they will probably fail. But the deeper point is that no one can vote for the PDI-P this April with confidence that they are voting for political change of any sort. There is still essentially no way to cast an effective vote against the party cartel.

Whether Indonesia will have a viable political opposition after the 2009 election is entirely out of the hands of Indonesian voters. Todays cartel minus one could easily once again become a cartel in full. If this indeed occurs and recent talk of an impending rapprochement between SBY and Megawati threatens to heal the only rift that currently prevents it Indonesians will continue to enjoy democracy, but not accountability.

Think Thaksin
Even if this scenario is avoided, there is a second threat to accountability that cannot be ignored. Imagine that SBY is reelected in another landslide. Under presidential electoral rules, he would be in a position to stop sharing power with everyone, and begin refusing to share power at all. Think of President Wahids bid to escape democratic constraints in 2000-2001, but this time with a president enjoying an enormous popular mandate and far greater support in parliament. Think Thaksin; think Estrada; think Fujimori. SBYs powerful and enduring ties to his party allies make such an outcome unlikely, if much too easy for comfort in a structural sense. In the longer term, if the cartel is indeed restored in full after the 2009 vote, the big danger is that voters will increasingly come to resent an unresponsive and unaccountable parliament, and ultimately accept a strong-armed, populist leader with no commitment to democratic institutions of constraint as their next president. At the risk of sounding alarmist: think Prabowo.

Of course, Indonesia is by no means condemned to relive either the cartelised sclerosis of the Megawati years or the presidential domineering of the Wahid years. The solution, as I see it, is for the next president to craft the kind of koalisi terbatas, or limited coalition, that SBY originally promised back in 2004. Indonesia needs a governing majority, not governing unanimity. But the problem is that voters have little leverage to ensure that they will enjoy the same kind of effective choice in the next democratic elections as they enjoyed in their first, a decade ago. Elites can simply choose such a new coalitional path unfortunately, it is elites alone who currently have this power to choose.

So to conclude: if forced to fill out a report card on Indonesian democracy after ten years, I would eagerly give Indonesias voters an A. They have done everything in their power to sustain and strengthen their fledgling democracy. But the same cannot be said for Indonesias political elites. I would give them nothing better than a C a C for cartel.   ii

Dan Slater (slater@uchicago.edu) is assistant professor of political science at the University of Chicago. His earlier writings on accountability in Indonesia can be found in Indonesia and Social Analysis.

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Indonesia: Release Election Critics, Investigate Violence
Arrests, Problems in Aceh and Papua Mar Pre-Election Period
 
Human Rights Watch

(New York, April 8, 2009) The Indonesian government should conduct impartial investigations into pre-election violence and free all peaceful critics arrested in the period leading up to parliamentary elections on April 9, 2009, Human Rights Watch said today.
 
Forty-four political parties will compete in the nationwide elections for seats in the House of Representatives, the House of Regional Representatives, and provincial and local parliaments. Of the parties, 38 are national. The remaining six are local parties in Aceh, in northern Sumatra, that were established after the Helsinki peace agreement between the Indonesian government and the Free Aceh Movement in August 2005.
 
The government should carry out serious investigations into the pre-election violence, no matter where the evidence leads, said Brad Adams, Asia director at Human Rights Watch. No one should be complacent and say that Indonesia is a big and unstable country where election violence is inevitable. No human rights abuses are inevitable.
 
Since January, five politicians from the Aceh Party, the political party of the Free Aceh Movement, have been killed. In the most recent case, on April 4, two unidentified gunmen shot in the chest Muhamad Jamil, Aceh Party head in the town of Langsa. The partys offices have been bombed, and Indonesian soldiers have taken down some of their flags.
 
In Papua, students have held peaceful rallies against the elections in Nabire and Jayapura, instead calling for a UN-organized referendum on the future of Papua. On April 6 in Nabire, the Indonesian police shot at demonstrators, seriously wounding four students. On April 3, Indonesian police raided the compound of the Papua Customary Council in Jayapura, arresting 15 students there and two others in Jayapura seaport. The police also arrested three students in Wamena. The students had been camping at the Papua Customary Council compound since November 2008.
 
The police have charged three of the Jayapura students Musa Tabuni, Serafin Diaz, and Yance Motte with treason and incitement. The three face a maximum penalty of life imprisonment.
 
The Indonesian government should free all peaceful critics and activists immediately, said Adams. To jail people for criticizing the elections makes a mockery of democracy.

For more Human Rights Watch reporting on Indonesia, please visit:
http://www.hrw.org/asia/indonesia

For more information, please contact:
In London, Brad Adams (English): +44-7908-728-333 (mobile)
In Washington, DC, Sophie Richardson (English, Mandarin): +1-202-612-4341; or +1-917-721-7473 (mobile)
In Jakarta, Andreas Harsono (English, Indonesian): +62-815-950-9000 (mobile)

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Incidents in Papua prior to 2009 elections
Avoid Conflicts and Halt Repression against Civil Society

KONTRAS: COMMISSION FOR THE DISAPPEARED AND VICTIMS OF VIOLENCE

Press Release
9 April 2009

[Translated by TAPOL]

KontraS regrets the occurrence of several incidents of violence prior to the elections in Papua which have spread a sense of anxiety among  Papuan people. The latest was an incident last night when eight students were arrested following an attack on the head office of the police in Abepura and a fire at the office of the Rector of Cenderawasih University in Waena.

The police declared that the conflict in Papua would be subject to special handling during the election period. However a number of incidents have occurred. Such special treatment should not lead to acts of violence and violations of human rights.

KontraS has received the following reports of recent incidents:

• On 7 April: The arrest of Markus Haluk, secretary-general of the Leadership Council of the Association of Students from the Central Highlands, on charges of spreading information and provocation for calling for a boycott of the election in Papua.
• On 8 April: The killing of three members of the public in Wamena, with two others critically injured and now being treated at Wamena Hospital
• On 8 April at 11pm, rumours circulated that a member of the police force had been stabbed by an unidentified person near Youfeta Market, Abepura. In response, the police conducted sweepings of everyone along the main roads.
• On 8 April at 1.30am, a group of unidentified people attacked the head office of the police in the vicinity of Abepura and one person was shot dead.
• On 8 April at 2.30am, the Rector’s Building at Cendrawasih University was burnt down by unidentified  people. Police conducted sweepings which resulted in the arrest of eight students at the Minmin Students Mess, one of whom sustained gunshot wounds.

 

The 2009 elections represent a step in the direction of democratisation. Although they have been involved in a number of conflicts, the people of Papua are entitled to enjoy a time of peace during the period of the elections.

We call on all sides to exercise restraint and avoid the use of violence. At the same time, we call on the security forces, in particular the police, to uphold professional standards and respect the human rights of those people who are critical of the 2009 elections. We are very much afraid that excessive behaviour by the police which has been part of the problem in Papua up until the present has been incited by provocative actions by outside elements.

In particular, we request that the additional forces for the army and police as instructed by the chief of police of Indonesia  should not lead to the conflict spreading and there should be no further acts of violence. In addition, we urge that these events should not result in further acts of repression against the people in general.

Jakarta, 9 April 2009

Indra Fernida A, Deputy Coordinator

Syamsul Alam Agus
Division of Politics, Law and Human Rights.

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Papua violence mars Indonesian elections

TAPOL press release

9 April 2009 -­ At a time when the international media is focussing on today’s Indonesian elections, little attention had been paid to the deteriorating human rights situation in West Papua.  TAPOL is calling for an end to the violence and for the Papuans’ democratic rights to freedom of expression, association and assembly to be guaranteed. 

Papuans have been arrested for attending mass gatherings, and three men are to be charged with subversion. Most alarming of all are police shootings of demonstrators and raids on offices of the Dewan Adat Papua (Papuan Customary Council) involving notorious Brimob police special forces.

In campaigning for the elections, several Indonesian political parties have held rallies attended by tens of thousands of people in a number of cities in West Papua. These rallies have proceeded without interference.

But last week, Papua police chief, Drs Bagus Edokanto, issued a warning against the staging of mass meetings that were critical of the elections and were calling for a boycott. He mentioned in particular the National Alliance of the People of West Papua (KANRPB) as likely to be ‘dealt with’ by the police.

Regardless of these threats, a few days ago hundreds of people attended a rally in Nabire convened by the National Committee of West Papua (KNPB). Speakers at the rally expressed support for a newly-established organisation, the International Lawyers for West Papua. The police opened fire on the rally and nine people were injured, including a 10-year old boy.  Fifteen people attending the rally were arrested and later subjected to ‘intense interrogation’ according to the local daily, Cenderawasih Pos.

The police had earlier raided the office of the KNPB. Banners and Morning Star flags were confiscated and the police alleged that they had discovered firearms.

On 3 April, according to a report by the Gereja Kristen Injili (GKI - Evangelical Church), several police units, including Brimob raided the Dewan Adat Papua (DAP) office in Jayapura. During the raid, a computer was destroyed after the hard disk had been removed. A number of documents were seized and other office equipment was trashed. The police claim to have confiscated two firearms from the office, accusing two women there of being the owners of the firearms.

According to the GKI, one of those arrested was Dina Wandikbo. She described how she had been held at gunpoint in the street by a man while on her way from the DAP office to buy food. He told her to return to the building and fetch a bag lying under a table. Fearing for her life she did so, but because the bag was heavy, she asked her sister to help her carry it out. After leaving the office, the two women were accosted by a Brimob officer who threatened them at gunpoint and told them to let go of the bag.

With their hands bound, the women were taken to police headquarters along with 13 others from the office and held overnight. They were later released and ordered to report regularly to the police.  They were accused of possessing the firearms that had been found in the DAP office.

Many arrests have been made at meetings and rallies organised by West Papuan organisations. While most have been released, three men are now ‘suspects’ and will face serious charges: Mako Tabuni (also known as Musa Tabuni), Serafin Diaz, and Yance Motte.

The three men will face charges under Article 106 of the Penal Code of makar (subversion), for which the maximum penalty is twenty years imprisonment, and under Article 160 for incitement.  They are accused of pursing the aim of separating part of the territory of Indonesia.

Police chief Bagus Ekodanto said the men had been arrested for their involvement in a demonstration at several locations in Abepura and outside the provincial assembly building (DPRP) in Jayapura on 10 March 2009.  The men had reportedly called for a referendum in West Papua and urged Papuans not to vote in the forthcoming elections.

TAPOL is deeply concerned at these developments, which represent serious violations of the rights to freedom of expression, association and assembly. The raid on the offices of the DAP, along with the accusations of firearms offences, is a clear attempt to undermine the DAP’s long-proclaimed commitment to the ‘Papua Land of Peace’ initiative.

TAPOL calls for:

The Papuan people to be guaranteed their rights to freedom of expression, association and assembly.

The immediate and unconditional release of Mako Tabuni, Serafin Diaz, Yonce Motte and any other Papuans who have been arrested for attending peaceful rallies or meeting.

The Indonesian authorities in West Papua to apologise to the Dewan Adat Papua for raiding its office, to compensate the organisation for the damage caused to its premises, and to allow it to function without interference.

The police to lift the restrictions imposed on Dina Wandikbo and her sister.

The repeal of the 2007 presidential regulation that makes it illegal for Papuans to unfurl the Morning Star flag.

The chief of police to lift his restrictions on the right of Papuan organisations to organise meetings and rallies.

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Pre-Election Violence Hits Papua

Jakarta Globe
Arientha Primanita, Markus Junianto Sihaloho, Putri Prameshwari & Christian Motte
April 10, 2009

Violence marred election day in Papua when police shot dead one person as hundreds attacked a police post and, in separate incidents, three transmigrants were killed by a group believed to be made up of Papuan natives.

Police at 1.30 a.m. Thursday opened fire after finding their post under attack from more than 100 people in Abepura near Papuas capital Jayapura, said Papua Police Chief Bagus Eko Danto.

One man was killed and four others injured, Bagus said.

National Police chief Bambang Hendarso Danuri said the Papua Provincial Police had detained six people as suspects. Police ares also currently questioning eight other people as witnesses, he added.

Bambang said that police and the military would take firm action especially considering the attackers used weapons knives and other traditional weapons as well as molotov cocktails, although he added, without elaborating, that he believed the violence was not connected to the election.

An unknown group also set the nearby Cendrawasih Universitys rectorate building on fire two hours after the first attack, but no one was killed or injured.

Meanwhile, Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal, and Security Affairs, Widodo Adi Sucipto, said in Jakarta that three transmigrants (Indonesians from other provinces) were killed after attacks by an unknown group at four separate locations in in Wamena Jayawijaya district.

Five non-Papuans were attacked by local people at around 8.30 p.m. on Wednesday, Widodo said, adding that the two survivors were in critical conditions and were being treated at the Wamena General Hospital.

'There were indications that a certain group intended to disturb or scuttle the election'

Widodo Adi Sucipto, coordinating minister

Widodo said that there were indications that a certain group intended to disturb or scuttle the election.

Speaking after a coordination meeting in Jakarta attended by the heads of top security and political agencies, Widodo said that the police were still investigating the cases and had not yet concluded whether the violence was linked to the separatist Free Papua Organization, or OPM.

The facts are that security disturbances do exist, and we must investigate them to reveal who the actors are behind the scene, he said, adding that police and the military had beefed up security at strategic sites in Papua.

He said, that based on reports, the incidents did not influence the number of people taking parts in the elections.

National Police spokesman, Abubakar Nataprawira, also said that a police post in Wutung, near the border between Papua and Papua New Guinea, had been attacked by several people armed with firearms, but no one was reported injured.

Despite the escalating security tension in Papua, Gen. Djoko Santoso of the Armed Forces, said that the status of security alertness in Papua will not be raised. Security agencies, he said, preferred to take a soft power approach rather than military one.

Defense Minister, Juwono Sudarsono, has said in the past that the government would not use an iron-fist approach in dealing with separatists but would always try a soft yet persuasive approach through dialogue.

The military ,Djoko has said, believed that separatism can be minimized with a better government approach to Papuan welfare.

In a unrelated incident, two members of the election supervisory committee from the Mamberamo district remained missing after the boat they were using overturned in the Mamberamo river. Three other men on the same boat were rescued.

Human Rights Watch on Thursday called for serious investigations into pre-election violence in Papua and Aceh, two regions which have seen pro-independence sentiments.

Five politicians have been killed in Aceh since January and in Papua, security authorities had shot and wounded four students calling for a UN-organized referendum and later arrested 20 students activists and threatened three of them with treason and incitement, it said in a statement.

On the election front, Papua Governor Barnabas Suebu said that voters at three percent of the some 7,648 polling stations across Papua could not vote on Thursday, adding that he hoped the polls could be conducted Friday.

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Papua Calm After Deadly Incidents

The Jakarta Post
April 11, 2009

JAYAPURA

Papuans celebrated Good Friday peacefully, after a series of violent incidents in Abepura district, Jayapura, marred the previous day’s polling.

Public transportation services resumed operations as normal, while residents flocked to traditional markets, shops and grocery stores.

“This safe and conducive situation has allowed Christians here to conduct Easter mass freely, and followers of other faiths to go about their activities on peace,” local resident Maksimus Solo said as quoted by Antara.

He admitted most residents were gripped by fear Thursday after learning about attacks on security posts and the Abepura Police station, as well as a fire that razed state-run Cendrawasih University.

Unidentified gunmen assaulted the security post at the Skaw Wutung border between Indonesia and Papua New Guinea at 1 a.m. No casualties were reported.

Half an hour later, the Abepura Police station was attacked by about 50 men armed with homemade bombs, spears, cleavers, bows and cassowary bones. Police officers shot into the crowd, killing one attacker and injuring eight others.

At daybreak, the rector’s building at Cendrawasih University, 5 kilometers from the police station, was set ablaze by unknown people. The fire razed documents and badly damaged the building, but claimed no fatalities.

On Wednesday evening, unknown assailants stabbed five ojek (motorcycle taxi) drivers in Wamena, leaving four of them dead [other reports suggest three died. TAPOL] and the fifth in critical condition.

Two hours later, a fuel storage tank at state oil company PT Pertamina’s depot in Biak exploded, killing a bystander.

Papua Governor Barnabas Suebu said the explosion was simply an accident, while the attacks were intended to disrupt the elections in Papua.

The Papuan Church Communion has sent a letter to the governor ahead of Easter to voice its concern over the dire security situation.

“Calamity, disease, accidents and violence never seem to leave our daily lives. Many people live in worry and fear,” the letter, dated April 8 and made available to The Jakarta Post, read.

The communion expressed concern over the arrests of youth activists charged with sedition.

It also questioned an April 3 raid on the Papua Customary Council office, claiming it was done without proper legal basis. Police seized and destroyed equipment from the office and arrested 15 activists over an issue of International Lawyers for West Papua (ILWP) abroad.

Police earlier said the men were arrested for their alleged involvement in a subversion movement.

The arrests continued on April 6 and 7, with dozens of West Papua National Committee activists detained for sedition.

The communion also pointed out the climate of fear spawned by the recent violence in the Tingginambut area, Puncak Jaya regency, which was reminiscent of similar violence around Christmas time in 2006 and 2007 that forced many people to seek refuge.

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Indonesia Decides Today

The Jakarta Post
April 9, 2009

Editorial

It’s decision time for Indonesia. Millions of Indonesians across the archipelago today will go to polling stations to elect their representatives at the national and local legislatures. Their decision will determine the fate of the nation for the next five years and beyond. In July, we will go back to the polling stations to vote for a president and vice president.

Putting aside the figures ­ over 171 million registered voters, about 500,000 polling stations, 44 political parties and over one million candidates vying for more than 50,000 seats ­ this vote is significant for Indonesia in many respects.

This will be the third truly free and fair election Indonesia has held since it got rid of dictator Soeharto in 1998 and ushered in a new era of democracy. The consensus nationwide since then is that Indonesia should build this nation ­ in spite of its diversity in race, ethnicity, culture, language and religion ­ on the basis of democracy.

For 30 years Soeharto tried ruling the country the authoritarian way but in the end the regime became so cor-rupt that all the gains made in economic development were virtually wiped out during the 1997/98 Asian economic crisis.

With the first two elections under its belt, Indonesia has earned the accolade as the third largest democracy in the world after India and the United States.

Among the predominantly Muslim countries, Indonesia is the largest democracy in the world, disproving the widely held belief that Islam and democracy just don’t get along.

Admittedly, we do not yet have a perfect democracy, but as long as each election is an improvement over the previous one, we should be content. After all, we are still essentially experimenting with our democracy.

So what else is new with this year’s parliamentary election, one might ask.

This is the first time voters have had a greater say on who will sit in the legislatures ­ the House of Representatives and the Regional Representatives Council ­ at the national level and the provincial and regental legislative councils. Courtesy of the Constitutional Court, the candidates with the most votes will
take the seats. The court struck out at a clause in the election law that stated the seat should go to candidate at the top of the winning party’s list.

This decision is consistent with the trend of organizing direct elections for president and vice president, provincial governors, regency chiefs and city mayors, which was introduced in 2004.

From this year, voters have the power to directly elect their representatives in the legislatures.

This weakens the hands of political parties but brings together elected politicians and their constituents.

Now, they are more accountable and must ensure their loyalty first and foremost is with the people, and not with their party.

There have been rumors predicting massive protests following the election, especially with problems over the voters’ list, but if we go by the elections in 1999 and 2004, which were also chaotic, things have a way of resolving themselves in Indonesia.

We expect this year will be no different, because at the end of the day, everyone knows that the cost of failure would be horrendous, not just financially, but also in terms of political stability.

Let’s preserve the festive mood, cast our ballots today and accept the outcome, regardless of whether it meets our own expectations.

May democracy march on in this country.

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Time to Vote!

The Jakarta Post
April 9, 2009

JAKARTA/PAPUA/KUPANG/BANDUNG

photo: Tense start: A police officer keeps an eye on ballot boxes to be distributed to polling stations in Banda Aceh, Aceh province, on Wednesday. Security in the restive province has received special attention from the government, following a spate of unresolved attacks on local parties’ leaders.
Antara/Andika Wahyu

Ballots have not reached all remote islands and mountain villages; monitors are lacking at more than 500,000 polling stations to watch out for the feared violations and ignorance of election rules, and poll workers are still receiving last-minute instructions.

Despite all the shortcomings and controversies, more than 171 million Indonesians are set to throng polling stations Thursday.

The eligible voter lists remain a contentious issue, with fears of many nonexistent citizens on the lists.

General Elections Commission (KPU) chairman Abdul Hafiz Anshary has warned the ad hoc elections committee (KPPS) to take stern action by deleting unknown voters from the voter lists.

“If you find ‘unknown’ voters or the names of dead people, just delete them from the lists,” he told KPPS members Wednesday.

He also warned voters to be on the alert for cell phone text messages that urged unregistered voters to take their ID cards to polling stations.

“It is totally incorrect. Unregistered people are not allowed to vote, even if they show their ID cards,” he said.

On Wednesday, KPU members visited several polling stations in the capital as part of theirlast-minute monitoring of elections preparations.

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono held a teleconference Wednesday with the country's 33 governors.

Papua Governor Barnabas Suebu reported a likely election delay in three mountainous regencies, with polling material yet to reach more than 500 polling stations.

The President urged all the governors to safeguard the elections and watch out for violations and cheating. He said law enforcers should take a "zero-tolerance" stance against anyone engaging in acts of anarchy.

April 9 will mark the country's third democratic elections since the fall of former president Soeharto, and the 10th since 1955.

Some 12,000 candidates from 38 political parties are vying for 560 seats at the House of Representatives, with hundreds of thousands contesting legislative seats at provincial, municipal and regency level.

Voters will also cast ballots for members of the Regional Representative Council (DPD).

The results of Thursday's elections will determine which parties are entitled to nominate their own presidential candidate in the July 8 election.

Revelations of fake voters in last year's gubernatorial election in East Java have raised fears of similar "scenarios" playing out elsewhere, in both the legislative and presidential elections.

In Kupang, East Nusa Tenggara, some 20,000 names registered in voter lists were unknown, according to records, officials said.

Several parties have been disqualified from the polls at local levels for various reasons.

In Kupang, hundreds of supporters of the Patriot Party protested its disqualification for failing to submit their financial reports, election commission member M. Qosim said.

sidebar: Polling schedule

April 9 (1 p.m. onward): Vote counting at polling stations

April 10: Start of vote tabulation

April 10­20: Daily update

April 21: Announcement of municipal/regency council members

April 24: Announcement of provincial legislative members

May 9: Announcement of House and DPD members

July 8: Presidential election

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Indonesia's election: Many votes to count

Economist.com
April 9, 2009

THE parliamentary election in Indonesia on Thursday April 9th is the third since the downfall of the Suharto dictatorship in 1998 ushered in an era of genuine as opposed to sham democracy. Like the previous two, this election campaign has been lively, mostly good-humoured and conducted in an environment of great political freedom.

The poll itself is an exercise whose scale and logistical complexity are second only to those entailed by a general election in India. Across more than 900 inhabited islands, 171m voters have registered to vote. They have 38 national parties to choose from, and as many as 1m candidates for the national parliament, known as the DPR, and lower-level provincial and other legislatures.

This is only the start in what may become a three-stage process. Parties, or coalitions of parties, that win at least 112 seats in the 560-member DPR, or 25% of the popular vote, may nominate candidates for the powerful presidency, with elections held in July. If no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote then, a
run-off in September will follow.

For all the vigour—and huge expense—of the campaign, it has not generated the enthusiasm that saw 95% of registered voters turn out for the first post-Suharto election in 1999. In part this reflects the remarkable stability achieved in the country, so soon after the economic meltdown and political chaos surrounding
Suharto’s departure, and the apparent popularity of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who won the first direct presidential election in 2004.

But the loss of zest for politics also reflects some disappointment about the process of democratisation. Indonesia remains dominated by Suharto-era politicians and the parties compete less on policies than on the personalities of their leaders and the quality of the hand-outs they offer to supporters.

Opinion polls suggest many voters have yet to make up their minds but that three parties will emerge as the biggest in the new DPR. The president’s own Democratic Party (PD), which basks in the glow of his own popularity, is expected to double its share of seats to more than 20%. Golkar, the biggest party in the present DPR, had its origins as a vehicle for the re-election of Suharto. The main opposition is the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which is heir to the nationalist movement led by independent Indonesia’s founder, Sukarno, and is led by his daughter, Megawati Sukarnoputri, whom
Mr Yudhoyono replaced as president.

Many of the smaller parties are avowedly Islamist. They are expected to fare worse than in 2004 when they garnered a combined 40% of the vote. But one new secular party, Gerindra, has made a big splash this time. Led by Prabowo Subianto, a former son-in-law of Suharto and once head of a notorious army special-forces unit, it has poured money into television advertising and offers members an innovative freebie. Its
populist, pro-poor message (reschedule Indonesia’s debts and divert the proceeds into public services) has struck a chord.

Nevertheless, Mr Yudhoyono is widely expected to win re-election as president in July or September. This election will help determine the shape of the coalition he leads. It may also present him with a headache. The preparations have been dogged with logistical setbacks and blunders such as inaccurate or undelivered ballot papers. Worse, allegations of large-scale, systematic fraud in an election early this year for a governor
in the province of East Java have paved the way for an expected avalanche of disputed results.

It is a tribute, however, to the roots that democracy has put down in so short a period that in a country with a history of appalling political violence, most observers expect these disputes to be resolved peacefully.

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Editorial: A Successful Exercise In Democracy

The Jakarta Globe
Friday, April 10, 2009

From Aceh in the west to Papua in the east, across 3,000 kilometers and thousands of islands, Indonesians in this vast archipelago exercised their birthright and moral duty on Thursday by voting for their local and national legislative representatives.

Closely fought, but without any major incidents of violence, despite scattered problems in Papua, the elections were a logistical challenge. But once again Indonesians have proven the doubters wrong and shown the world that the nation is now a confirmed member of the democratic club. Indeed, Indonesia is
rightfully and deservedly referred to as the third largest democracy in the world.

The days when Indonesia was ruled by an autocrat and elections were held merely to provide a thin veneer of democracy are a distant memory. Indonesian democracy has developed its own flavor and characteristics, with party rallies taking on a festive air, often involving local celebrities and artists.

That should not, however, mask the fact that underlying the elections are critical issues such as the economy, unemployment and corruption. Many of the candidates have promised to continue the reforms unleashed following the 1998 political and financial crisis. It remains to be seen if these promises will be
fulfilled once they enter the House of Representatives.

Whichever party wins the most seats in the House must continue the reforms, especially against graft. Early quick counts indicate that President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party is on course to win about 20 percent of the votes, with the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle and Golkar rounding out the top three parties. If this pattern holds, Yudhoyono will have to reach across the aisle and build coalitions with other like-minded parties.

Under the current coalition government between Yudhoyono and Vice President Jusuf Kalla’s Golkar Party, Indonesia has prospered and furthered its reform agenda. The government has delivered strong economic growth and brought relative peace and stability to the country. The decades-long civil war in Aceh was brought to a close and sectarian violence in Maluku ended with both sides making peace.

The legislative elections are, of course, a forerunner to the direct presidential election slated for July. If the Democratic Party wins the most seats in the House, Yudhoyono will emerge as the frontrunner for the presidency once again. If his hand is strengthened this time, he could push through economic and institutional reforms at a faster pace.

Through Thursday’s elections, Indonesians have shown not only that they take their civic responsibility to vote very seriously, but that they are also more than capable of making a mature choice. Our people, thankfully, are not easily swayed by cheap gifts and empty rhetoric.

Global and local investors will also be watching these elections closely as they come to decisions about whether it is safe to park their money in this country. They will have been heartened by the peaceful conduct of the elections, but they will be waiting anxiously to see which party comes out on top. Much therefore will depend on the outcome.

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Indonesia Holds Fast To Secular Politics

Islamist Groups Expected to Take Back Seat in Vote

The Washington Post
Thursday, April 9, 2009
Robin Shulman, Washington Post

DEPOK, Indonesia -- Ismi Safeya is a student at an Islamic school who veils her hair for modesty, prays five times a day and is inspired by the idea of a society based on Muslim principles.

But when the 18-year-old casts her vote for the first time in parliamentary elections Thursday, she won't vote for an Islamist party.

"The wisest choice is a government not dependent on Islamic law," she said, acknowledging the religious diversity of Indonesia and arguing that rules must be fair for everyone. "Islam actually guides our lives, but it doesn't seem to be shown in the way we vote."

Like Safeya, most voters here in the world's largest majority-Muslim country are expected to cast their ballots for secular parties. As political Islam gains strength globally, it has achieved little electoral success in Indonesia. Though polls show Indonesians becoming more religiously observant in their private lives, surveys also suggest this shift will not translate into significant support for Islamist politics in parliamentary elections Thursday or in presidential elections scheduled for July.

"More and more young Muslims are interested in basic bread-and-butter issues," said Defense Minister Juwono Sudarsono in an interview in his office in Jakarta, the capital. "Parties that advocate for sharia, or Islamic law, do not get much play."

One of the reasons is that Islamist parties have won local elections in the past. But instead of building strength for the parties' ideals, experiments with Islamic law have produced a backlash. Meanwhile, mainstream parties have co-opted some positions of their Islamist opponents. Religious positions have
seeped into the national consensus, neutralizing them as campaign platforms for the Islamist parties.

"The categories are blurred right now," said Andi Mallarangeng, a spokesman for President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, a member of the secular Democratic Party. "To win, you have to move to the center." The center, he said, fuses moderate Islamic ideals with programs to deliver such economic basics as jobs and food.

"Islamic political parties exist and will always have a niche in this electorate," Mallarangeng said. "But they're not going to dominate."

In the last national election, in 2004, Islamist parties, broadly defined, received about 40 percent of the vote. This time, they are projected to receive only about 24 percent, according to a poll conducted by the Indonesian Survey Institute. Secular parties are expected to win about 67 percent of the vote, although the polls have been off in the past. Not all of the Islamist parties advocate sharia rule, and many are backing away from such platforms.

A big part of the challenge for religious-themed parties is the extraordinary diversity of this archipelagic nation, which is made up of more than 14,000 islands and includes tolerance among its core principles. About 90 percent of people in this, the world's fourth most populous country, are Muslim. But they practice a unique, syncretic brand of Southeast Asian Islam. Traditions include banging a cowhide drum alongside the call of the muezzin to summon people to prayer, a belief in neighborhood spirits and rituals such as one in which new fathers of baby girls dress up as women.

Thursday's elections feature 38 national parties competing for Indonesia's 550-seat parliament, a regional representation council, and provincial, county and city assemblies. Parties or coalitions that get 20 percent or more of the parliamentary seats may nominate a candidate for presidential elections scheduled for July 9.

The campaigns have been going strong for weeks, with processions of activists on mopeds waving banners and chanting party slogans in the streets of Jakarta day and night. Indonesians who show up at rallies often get gifts -- T-shirts, lunches or even 20,000 rupiah notes, worth about $2.

Corruption is the biggest problem Indonesians cite in their government, and in the last election, that was part of the appeal of the religious parties, which are traditionally seen as cleaner. But since then, a few representatives of Islamist parties have been tainted by scandal. Some Indonesians say they are disenchanted this time around and will simply not vote.

"We're so disappointed with the leaders," said Shohib Sirri, 21, a student in the English and letters department at the State Islamic University.

During President Suharto's 32-year dictatorship, which ended in 1998, he drew support from Islamist organizations that helped the government round up suspected opponents. Suharto allowed more freedom for Islamic groups than for political ones, and during his last years in power he helped foster a generation of
Islamist activists, said Zulkieflimansyah, a member of parliament from the Islamic-oriented Prosperous Justice Party.

After the U.S.-backed Suharto fell from power, there was a torrent of repressed political activity, including expressions of radical Islam. The Bali nightclub bombings in 2002, which killed more than 200 people, announced the presence of a violent fringe. Those responsible, from the Indonesian chapter of the
transnational organization Jemaah Islamiyah, a group linked to al-Qaeda, were arrested or went into hiding in the Philippines.

In 2004, a law allowed for local elections, and dozens of communities elected officials who experimented with versions of Islamic law -- from requiring women to wear a head scarf when working in government offices, to preventing women from being outside alone at night.

But when the rules were imposed, people reacted against them. Many Indonesians were repulsed by the arrests of women waiting for rides to work before the evening shifts at factories, or raids on hotel rooms to catch unmarried people together. The Islamist parties began to back down from talk of Islamic law.

"It's not a vote getter," said James Castle, an analyst of Indonesian politics and economics.

But some see a generational divide between younger Indonesians who are prepared to fuse Islamic values with democracy, and older Indonesians who lived most of their lives under Suharto and now seek Islamic law. "If we don't speak about sharia Islam, we will lose our base," said Zulkieflimansyah, who like many
Indonesians goes by one name. He hopes for a country "with democracy in our political system and Islam as our moral code."

Elsewhere, Zulkieflimansyah said, Islamist movements are using violence to protect themselves from undemocratic regimes. "Here it is quite irrelevant," he said. "In Indonesia, the Islamist movements are in government."

Politicians from the ruling party have taken stances designed to curry favor with religious voters, such as backing an anti-pornography bill that was pushed by the Islamist parties and supporting curtailed freedoms of a minority sect of Islam that is not recognized by some religious authorities. Analysts say that Indonesia shares some attributes with Turkey, where a party rooted in political Islam gained national power, only to
experience a setback in recent local elections. Indonesia could also be taking leads from Malaysia, where Islamist parties have not fared well in the past two elections.

"The most important thing is to create jobs and security," said Emy Widijanti, 39, a travel agent, sitting at a table outdoors in a narrow street full of stands selling steaming beef and chicken in peanut sauce. "Indonesia is diverse. Government should protect all religious belief."

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Indonesian president wins voters’ approval

Financial Times (UK)
April 9, 2009
John Aglionby in Jakarta

Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono received a strong endorsement on Thursday after his Democrat Party almost tripled its support to win the most votes in the parliamentary election while the two other big parties lost ground, according to three surveys using a statistically representative selection of
results.

Analysts said that although the Democrat Party, which the surveys said won 20.5 per cent of the popular vote, did not do as well as some opinion polls had suggested, Mr Yudhoyono has reinforced his favourite status ahead of July’s more important presidential election.

Official results are not due for a month but similar “quick counts” in the 2004 general election differed by less than half a percentage point from the official returns.

Running very close for second place in the surveys, at just under 15 per cent, are the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, led by former president Megawati Sukarnoputri, and Golkar, led by Vice President Jusuf Kalla.

In 2004 the Democrat Party won 7.5 per cent of the vote, PDIP 18.3 per cent and Golkar 21.6 per cent.

The three quick counts all predict that nine of the 38 parties will pass the 2.5 per cent popular vote threshold to win seats in the 560-member parliament. Turnout figures were not immediately available.

The only other significant parties that increased their vote in the world’s third-largest democracy are the Prosperous Justice Party, an Islamist party, which came fourth with eight per cent ­ up one percentage point, and the Great Indonesia Movement Party, on 4.5 per cent. The latter is a new party led by Prabowo
Subianto, a former general, son-in-law of the ex-dictator Suharto and presidential aspirant.

All the other Islamic parties, in what is the world’s most populous majority-Muslim country, saw their support slump considerably.

With simultaneous elections for the national regional representatives assembly and provincial and district
legislature, voters were confronted with massive ballot papers.

“There are so many faces it’s a blur,” giggled Astrid Yuspriatmo, as she arrived at her Jakarta polling station to be confronted by a total of 700 names on the three ballot papers.

“Choosing who to vote for is like reading a newspaper,” said Amir, after taking a relatively rapid three minutes to make his selections at a south Jakarta polling station.

The only significant unrest was in the easternmost province of Papua, where police said some 80 people, believed to be members of the poorly-organised separatist Free Papua Movement, mounted seemingly coordinated attacks on several locations, including a university, in the early hours.

Five people were killed in the violence where the attackers were mostly armed with bows and arrows, spears and petrol bombs.

By Thursday evening many parties were already complaining of myriad electoral violations, prompting the spectre of weeks of legal challenges to results.

Presidential candidates can only be nominated by parties, or coalitions of parties, that win 20 per cent of the seats or 25 per cent of the popular vote in the parliamentary election. Several weeks of horse-trading are now envisaged between the leading parties.

While the Democrat Party will almost certainly have exceeded the threshold, Anies Baswedan, a political analyst, said Mr Yudhoyono is likely to want to pick a running mate from one of the larger parties to shore up his parliamentary base.

“SBY doesn’t want someone who has to learn again,” Mr Anies said, using Mr Yudhoyono’s nickname. “And considering Golkar’s slump means it’s unlikely to run its own candidate, I think he may continue with [Mr Kalla]; that’s the most likely choice.”

Mrs Megawati, who lost to Mr Yudhoyono in 2004, has said she wants to run but analysts believe her party’s relatively poor showing may cause her to change her mind. One possibility already being touted is that she will nominate a senior party member to run with Mr Prabowo on an ‘anyone-but-Yudhoyono’ ticket.

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Calls to oust Kalla after poor showing

The Straits Times (Singapore)
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Salim Osman, Indonesia Correspondent

Dismal performance in polls prompts demand for Golkar chairman to be removed

Jakarta - Golkar's poor showing in last week's general election has triggered demands for party chairman Jusuf Kalla to be ousted.

Some party insiders even question whether Golkar should field Mr Kalla as its torchbearer in the July presidential election.

The Vice-President has publicly said that he was ready to challenge President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono instead of running as the President's deputy. But he could be dropped from the race altogether after an early count indicated that Golkar has slipped two places from its No. 1 position in 2004.

'There is a lot of unhappiness with Mr Kalla, that some cadres want him removed next week, not at the next party election in October,' senior Golkar cadre Marzuki Darusman told The Sunday Times.

Even Golkar leaders from Mr Kalla's home province, South Sulawesi, are reviewing their support for the party chairman as the presidential candidate.

Other names have been tossed up, including Yogyakarta governor and Javanese ruler, Sultan Hamengkubuwono X.

Golkar is scheduled to hold a meeting on April 20 to decide on its presidential candidate.

The party garnered 21.6 per cent of the popular vote in 2004 but several quick counts have indicated that the party created by former president Suharto in 1971 could secure only 14.42 per cent of the vote this time.

'The quick counts by various pollsters and the early counts of the election commission have shown more than a five percentage point drop in the party's performance. This is a disaster,' said Mr Marzuki.

Golkar, Indonesia's biggest party with 128 seats in the 550-seat outgoing National Parliament, has been trounced by Dr Yudhoyono's six-year-old Democratic Party, an early count has shown.

Mr Kalla congratulated the President on his party's good performance on Friday.

Ongoing counting by the election commission has shown that the Democratic Party has garnered 21.25 per cent of the vote - a big improvement from its 7 per cent showing in 2004.

Mr Ilham Arief Siraadjuddin, head of the south Sulawesi chapter, said Golkar's dismal performance would make it difficult to field Mr Kalla in the presidential contest.

'Given the present position, we are being realistic,' he added.

Former president Megawati Sukarnoputri's Indonesian Democratic Party - Struggle (PDI-P) is likely to retain its No. 2 position by securing about 14.99 per cent of the vote. It won 18.5 per cent of the vote in 2004.

Party insiders accused Mr Kalla, who became party chairman during the Golkar party election in December 2004, of misleading the party when he promised in February that the party could garner 30 per cent of the popular vote on April 9.

'His overconfidence had led to the complacency in the party and we are paying the cost now,' added Mr Marzuki, a former attorney-general.

Former deputy chairman of Golkar's advisory board Ginandjar Kartasasmita, also blamed Mr Kalla and the people in his circle for the debacle.

'This is not a personal problem,' he said. 'This is about responsibility, dignity and accountability in an organisation.'

Full official results will be out by May 9.

salim@sph.com.sg

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Internal Rifts Broaden At Golkar, PPP

The Jakarta Post
Monday, April 13, 2009
Adianto P. Simamora

The slide in votes for the Golkar Party and the United Development Party (PPP) in Thursday’s polls have exacerbated rifts within the parties.

Senior Golkar members have pointed the finger at party chairman Jusuf Kalla for failing to unite the party to win the elections.

Senior member Pinantun Hutasoit said Golkar leaders, particularly those on the executive board, should take responsibility for the sharp drop in votes for the party in the polls.

“The 10 percent drop in legislative votes is proof of the failure of the Golkar leadership in the elections,” Pinantun, a former executive board member, said as quoted by Antara news agency.

“As a Golkar member, I can’t accept such a result. The central board must take responsibility before the presidential election.”

He added the party needed to reformulate its strategies ahead of the presidential election, including by teaming up with other parties.

Golkar advisory board member Sri Sultan Hamengkubowono X admitted he was not surprised by the decline in votes.

“It was likely caused by the party’s uncertainty over naming a presidential candidate,” he said. He added the uncertainty had caused poor coordination in the field between the central executive board and its provincial boards in facing the legislative elections.

Hamengkubuwono was the first Golkar member to declare his presidential bid.

Golkar has long been under pressure to hold a convention to name its presidential candidate, as it did in the 2004 elections.

Kalla, however, rejected the notion, saying it would only benefit freeloaders within Golkar who wanted to contest the presidency.

Golkar is currently the biggest faction at the House of Representatives, controlling 128 of 550 seats.

As of Sunday, the Center for Vote Tabulation had recorded a total of 1.49 million votes, with Golkar in second place with about 14 percent, and the Democratic Party out in front with 20 percent.

A series of quick counts also put Golkar firmly behind President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party.

Meanwhile, senior PPP members have urged the party to hold an extraordinary meeting to replace chairman Suryadharma Ali, following his failure to lead the party to the targeted 15 percent of votes.

“We want the party to hold an extraordinary meeting to change the leadership of the party,” said PPP deputy secretary-general Lukman Hakim Hasibuan.

According to the Center for Vote Tabulation and quick count surveys, the PPP collected around 5 percent of votes, putting it in sixth place.

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‘Golden Triangle’ Tantamount To Break Up

The Jakarta Post
Monday, April 13, 2009
Adianto P. Simamora

With a string of quick count results showing the Democratic Party winning the election so far, the pride of the “Golden Triangle” coalition is now seriously facing the threat of collapse.

This coalition consists of the Golkar Party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the United Development Party (PPP), the only parties in existence during the Soeharto era. Andrinof Chaniago, a political expert from the University of Indonesia, said Sunday the Golkar Party and the PPP would likely “merge” with President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party for the presidential race.

“No political parties are ready to become the opposition, including Golkar and the PPP. The two parties will coalesce with the Democratic Party,” he said.

“Golkar and the PPP still heavily rely on funding sources from the government.”

PPP chairman Suryadharma Ali met with Vice President Jusuf Kalla, also chairman of Golkar, at the latter’s residence Sunday.

The PPP said as the Democratic Party has secured the most votes, according to the unofficial election tally, it had considered quitting the Golden Triangle coalition.

As of Sunday, the official Center for Votes Tabulation had recorded a total 1.49 million votes, with the Democratic Party taking the lead with around 20 percent. Golkar came second trailed by the PDI-P, with about 14 percent.

The official vote tally will be announced by the General Elections Commission (KPU) on May 9. PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri met chairman of the People’s Conscience (Hanura) Party Wiranto and Greater Indonesia Movement (Gerindra) Party Prabowo Subianto on Sunday. PDI-P chief patron Taufik Kiemas said his party was ready to form a coalition with the two newcomers — Hanura and Gerindra.

Gerindra and Hanura are so far ranked eight and ninth in the election results, with around 4.5 and 3.5 percent of votes, respectively.

Taufik said whether or not a coalition with the Golkar Party was possible would be decided Wednesday.

The PDI-P has decided to nominate its chairwoman Megawati as its presidential candidate, but stated it would not name a vice-presidential candidate until after the elections.

The presidential election is scheduled for July 8, 2009. Only parties or coalitions with a minimum 20 percent of seats at the House of Representatives or 25 percent of the popular vote will be eligible to nominate a presidential candidate.

Earlier, several parties including the Democratic Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) set up a so-called “Golden Bridge” coalition to challenge the Golden Triangle.

Democratic Party executive Anas Urbaningrum has said his party was looking to form a strong coalition at the House, one that could possibly control up to 70 percent of seats at the legislature.

Crescent Star Party (PBB) chairman MS Kaban, who is also the forestry minister, said his party was ready to form a coalition with the Democratic Party.

“The PBB as a political party is ready to continue our coalition with the Democratic Party,” he said to Antara.

Earlier, Yudhoyono floated the idea of a written contract with any political party wishing to form a coalition.

According to all the quick count results, the PBB failed to win the required 2.5 percent of votes to be able to  place its candidates in the House.

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Hundreds of irregularities in Indonesia vote: official

JAKARTA, April 11 (AFP) -- Indonesia's general elections have been marred by hundreds of complaints about irregularities, officials said Saturday, raising questions about the legitimacy of the vote in some areas.

The Election Supervisory Body said it had received almost 400 official reports of irregularities surrounding Thursday's legislative vote, only the third in the country since the fall of strongman Suharto in 1998.

"We have received 378 election violation reports from officials in 28 provinces," Supervisory Body vote-counting chief Wahidah Suaib said.

"The reported cases are mostly about polling stations receiving ballots designated for other stations."

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party won the most votes, according to independent polling agencies, but the final official results are not expected until May 9.

The Electoral Commission was widely criticised for its poor organisation of the poll, with reports of incomplete voter lists and delays in distributing ballot papers across the vast archipelago's 6,000 inhabited islands.

Suaib said most of the problems had appeared in Southeast Sulawesi, Central Java and West Kalimantan provinces.

"Depending on the case, there might have to be a repeat of the vote in some polling stations."

Gerindra, a populist party led by the former head of the notorious Kopassus special forces, Prabowo Subianto, said it would consider calling for a re-vote in some areas.

"There were many double names for voters. There were many eligible voters whose names weren't on the registration lists," party chairman Suhardi said.

"If we find enough proof of violations or mistakes in the procedures in one or more polling stations, then we'll ask for that area to recast their votes."

The People's Conscience Party of former army chief Wiranto also said the election might have to be repeated in the worst-affected polling stations.

"There were many logistical problems. Some of the ballot papers had already been ticked before people actually voted," party official Slamet Rujito said.

The election sets the stage for more important presidential elections in July, in which Yudhoyono is seeking a second five-year term.

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Elections seriously flawed

Articles abridged in translation by TAPOL

SINDO, 12 April 2009

Political observers and NGO activists who are members of Dewan Perubahan Nasional (National Council for Change) say that the 2009 elections were seriously flawed.  Spokesman Chalid Muhammad  said that as a result of technical problems, many voting papers were lost, resulting in the final list of candidates being chaotic.

He said that they regarded the election as flawed also because the government seemed to neglect the electoral processes needed in accord with the principles of democracy.

'This became evident ever since the draft electoral law was submitted to parliament when the government proposed that the DPT (Permanent List of Voters) should be drawn up by the Interior Ministry, without any corrections being made by the Electoral Commission (KPU) and the Interior Ministry.'

The director of Lingkar Madani for Indonesia (LIMA) Ray Rangkuti said that members of the KPU should be replaced in view of the election flaws, in order to safeguard the presidential election later this year..'They are the ones most responsible of all for the chaos during the elections,' he said.

He said that the election could be regarded as having been a failure. The group had discussed the matter and drawn up a number of conclusions for immediate implementation.

DPN has called on all voters who lost their votes to report to the authorities and to call upon the political parties to pay greater attention to people's aspirations rather than to their winning or losing the election.

The Statement of the National Council for Change

The statement of the DPN, which was received separately was signed by twenty activitists, including Ray Rangkuti, LIMA Nasional, Chalid Muhammad Indonesian Green Institute, Siti Maemunah JATAM, Berry Nahdian Furquon WALHI, Edwin Partogi and Indria Fernida Kontras, Asfiawanti LBH Jakarta, Abdullah ICW and nine others.

They agreed on five points for concluding that the elections were flawed:

1.Voters who lost their votes should report to the local police office or other competent authoruty
2.The state must rehabilitate the consitutional right of citizens that had been lost, to allow them to exercise their right to vote.
3. To consider the need to replace the KPU, in order to safeguard the 2009 presidential election and the 2014 elections.
4. Call upon the general public to remain involved in the electoral process and not to be trapped by discussions about the election results.
5. Call upon the political parties to pay closer attention to the people's aspirations rather than being caught up in the sharing out of seats

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Rivals Rally Against Yudhoyono

The Straits Times (Singapore)
Monday, April 13, 2009
Leslie Lopez, Senior Regional Correspondent

Opposition threatens legal action over alleged irregularities in
elections

POLITICAL opponents of Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said over the weekend that they would consider legal action over widespread irregularities in the just-completed parliamentary elections, as they hammered out plans to form a coalition to take him on in the all-important presidential poll in July.

The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the country's main opposition party, and several smaller political organisations headed by prominent former military generals, have alleged that the voters' lists in last week's elections were incomplete and included fictitious names.

In a veiled reference to Dr Yudhoyono's Democrat Party, PDI-P's secretary general Pramono Anung Wibowo told reporters that the national voters' lists were fabricated to benefit 'a certain party.'

'The fraud has inflicted massive losses on other parties and we plan to raise the issue with the Constitutional Court if it remains unresolved,' Mr Pramono said.

'There was widespread cheating but there seems to be a move to ignore the irregularities,' said a senior official of the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) headed by retired general Prabowo Subianto, a likely coalition partner for the PDI-P in the presidential election.

Election Commission officials have yet to comment on these allegations.

Official results of last week's parliamentary contest will only be out by May 9, but highly reliable quick-count surveys by private pollsters showed that the Democrat Party was enjoying a comfortable lead over its rivals, capturing over 21 per cent of the total votes, up from just over 7 per cent in the 2004 elections.

The PDI-P is trailing second with roughly 15 per cent, while Golkar, the country's oldest political organisation, captured about 14 per cent of the sample vote.

The surveys also showed that only six other parties captured the minimum 2.5 per cent of the national vote to secure seats in the 560-member legislature, as stipulated under Indonesia's complex election laws.

Immediately after the elections, PDI-P leader and former president Megawati Sukarnoputri met former armed forces chief Wiranto, who heads the People's Conscience Party (Hanura), for coalition talks.

The former president held a separate session with Gerindra's Mr Prabowo on Saturday.

Mr Taufik Kiemas, Ms Megawati's husband and chairman of PDI-P's advisory board, said a decision on the members of the coalition would be announced as early as the middle of this week.

Apart from Gerindra and Hanura, analysts say the United Development Party (PPP), which quick-count surveys show captured 5.5 per cent of the sample vote, will also join the Megawati-led coalition.

Indonesian law stipulates that candidates vying for the top job must secure the backing of a party or a coalition with at least 20 per cent of the seats in the assembly or 25 per cent of the popular vote.

The PDI-P-led coalition is expected to nominate Ms Megawati as their presidential candidate, and there is speculation that Mr Prabowo is making a strong bid to become her running mate.

But many analysts say that the Megawati-led coalition faces an uphill battle in defeating Dr Yudhoyono, who is seeking another five-year term in office.

Hugely popular among ordinary Indonesians because of his economic reforms, anti-corruption campaign and generous handouts to the poor, Dr Yudhoyono and his Democrat Party are expected to dominate a coalition which is likely to include a clutch of smaller parties, such as the Islamist Prosperous Justice Party
(PKS).

For Golkar, the prospect of being out of the government now looms large. Its chairman, Vice-President Jusuf Kalla, has fallen out with Dr Yudhoyono, and before the parliamentary polls declared he was ready to make a bid for the presidency.

The party's senior leaders are now blaming Mr Kalla for Golkar's dismal performance in last week's elections.

But supporters of Mr Kalla say it was Golkar's internal strife that forced the party chairman to declare his bid for the presidency, and the party should now consolidate around him and preserve the partnership with the Democrat Party.

'The Yudhoyono-Kalla duet should be defended because the coalition of two big parties will make for a strong government,' said Mr Soejatno Pedro, a senior Golkar official from central Java.

Politicians close to Dr Yudhoyono say that the President will declare his coalition partners in the coming week, and they do not discount Golkar being part of his team. Only this time, Golkar will have to play the role of a loyal subordinate.ljlopez@sph.com.sg

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Exit poll finds many voters confused by voting system

The Jakarta Post
April 14, 2009
Adianto P. Simamora

An exit poll has found many voters confused by the ticking system in the elections, causing a huge jump in invalid ballots compared with 2004.

The exit poll, conducted by the Institute for Social and Economic Research, Education and Information (LP3ES), found that about 44 percent out of 469,809 surveyed voters in all districts admitted they faced difficulties with the ticking system used to mark the voters preferences on the ballots.

“We find some 16.5 percent of ballots invalid, far higher than only seven percent in 2004 elections. It diminishes the quality of the election process,” LP3ES researcher Fajar Nursahid told reporters during the presentation of poll results in Jakarta on Monday.

“The total of invalid ballots is also higher than the projected votes won by the Golkar Party or the Indonesian Democratic Part of Struggle (PDI-P).”

Golkar and PDI-P were the country’s two largest parties during the 2004 elections.

The quick count survey by the LP3ES said that the two previously leading parties, Golkar and the PDI-P, had only secured about 15 percent each in the 2009 elections.

The exit poll, held during the April 9 legislative elections, randomly selected the voters and had a margin error of only one percent.

The LP3ES tasked 7,541 volunteers to perform exit polls and to monitor the election process in 1,920 polling stations across the country.

It also carried out quick counts to help determine which parties had secured the most votes in the legislative elections.

The quick counts listed only nine parties out of 38 national parties competing in the elections that would gain the minimum 2.5 percent threshold of votes required to hold parliamentary seats in the House of Representatives (DPR).

The Democratic Party came first with about 20 percent of votes.

Fajar said that about 19 percent of the surveyed voters came to know about the ticking system only on polling day at the polling stations.

“Only eight percent of voters admit getting information about the marking system from political parties or legislative candidates,” he said.

“Most of them know the ticking system from TV stations.”

The 2008 election law says a ballot is considered valid if a voter makes a single mark on the name or number column of the candidate or political party.

The government then issued a regulation-in-lieu-of-law (perppu) allowing voters to mark the party symbol or the candidate’s name to reduce the number of invalid votes.

The KPU also issued a 2009 regulation on the marking system allowing the use of a tick, a cross or by punching a hole in the ballot.

The KPU educated the public on the ticking system. Voters and election committees (KPS) sometimes had different ideas on what to do.

The LP3ES said that 36 percent of the surveyed voters had elected legislative candidates in the elections, but 70 percent of them did not recognize the people they had elected.

It said that abstention rates in the April 9 elections were higher than in 2004, reaching 28 percent, well up on the 13 percent previously.

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Commentary: Indonesia, a democracy teetering toward a police state

Endy M. Bayuni
The Jakarta Post
04/11/2009 10:05 AM 

For all its faults and shortcomings, this week’s legislative elections confirm that democracy is taking root in this country. The scale of the elections is so daunting — 171 million voters, more than 500,000 polling stations, and 15,000 seats at the national and regional legislatures — that something is bound to go wrong here and there. By and large, these elections have reaffirmed Indonesia’s claim as the world’s third largest democracy.

As always, somebody has to spoil the day, and this time, of all people or institutions, it’s the National Police — the very force that is supposed to ensure the elections proceed in a democratic, free and fair fashion.

There was the arrest of two whistle-blowers and the interrogation of journalists who reported their claims of election violations, and there was the arrest of Papuan students a few days ahead of the elections for advocating people boycott the polls, which led to the eruption of violence in Papua on Election Day on Thursday. In February, the East Java Police chief was removed, and his investigation into claims of fraud in last year’s gubernatorial election was virtually halted.

Did Gen. Bambang Hendarso Danuri misread his instruction when President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono appointed him chief of the National Police in September and told him to “secure” the elections? One would assume that “secure” means making sure everyone, without exception, can freely engage in this five-yearly democratic exercise with their constitutional rights fully protected by the police.

From the few incidents we have seen these past weeks (and let’s hope these are isolated incidents) involving the police, the general seems to have taken the word “secure” to mean the use of force, and at times his job was seemingly to “secure” Yudhoyono’s reelection and the victory of his Democratic Party.

The arrest of two whistle-blowers this week may seem small, but it has a much wider impact that would spook ordinary people, and probably even the media.

The two men would not have landed in hot water had the media not spotted the story. They were among tens of thousands of people who, encouraged by the elections supervisory committee, filed a report about campaign violations. In this case, they claimed they saw someone giving out Rp 10,000 notes and accompanying stickers telling people to vote for Edhie Baskoro, the son of Yudhoyono, who is running for a legislative seat in East Java for the Democratic Party.

Their report inevitably attracted media attention more so than the other thousands of claims because of the link to the President. The media posted the news with a rebuttal from Yudhoyono’s camp. One online news portal withdrew the story within hours and published an apology, apparently after some intervention from the presidential palace.

Following this, the journalists involved with the report from three media outlets were interrogated, and soon enough the East Java Police declared their proprietors as suspects in a defamation case against the President’s son, along with the two whistle-blowers. But within hours, the National Police announced the media proprietors were no longer suspects, although the status of the two whistle-blowers remains.
Many observers agree the police were too hasty in launching the interrogation and in arresting the whistle-blowers. The only logical explanation for their behavior is that the police had acted because it affects the son of the President.

Let’s face it, there were thousands of other reports of campaign violations, but the only arrests police made were of these two men? Shouldn’t they have waited for the elections supervisory committee to investigate the report? Or, going by their logic, shouldn’t they have arrested also all the other thousands people who filed reports of violations by this or that candidate and party, for defamation?

And what does this say about future elections, including the presidential election in July? Would people still dare to report campaign violations against the Democratic Party and the incumbent President, knowing that they risk getting arrested? Would the media still freely publish stories of allegations of violations against Yudhoyono and his party after this incident?

The same goes for the arrests of the Papuan students. They were not the only ones who campaigned for people to boycott the elections. Many public figures in Jakarta did so openly, including former president Abdurrahman Wahid. Why were the Papuans singled out?

The National Police has been struggling in the last 11 years to reform its public image, after building its reputation (along with the military) as nothing more than Soeharto’s henchmen for much of the previous 30 years.

It has made some progress, but still has some way to go. The annual survey by Transparency International Indonesia still places the police among the most perceived corrupt institutions in the country, along with the House of Representatives and others.

These incidents are not going the help Gen. Bambang and his force. If anything, he is creating a reputation for himself and the National Police that will grossly undermine their efforts of the last 11 years. The police may be feared, but they are not going to be respected by 
the people.

And as far as Indonesians are concerned, it seems that we may live in a democracy, but one that is dangerously going to be governed like a police state.

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Indonesia: Unjust Democracy

Asian Human Rights Commission Press release
April 09, 2009

As Indonesia takes part in its third parliamentary election under a new order regime, one might be tempted to see it emerging as a modern, democratic state that has overcome its atrocious decades of military rule. But appearances here are deceiving. In 1998 the country started to establish the rule of law and build a plural society based on independent institutions of justice. However since then it has been consistently destabilised by the lack of functioning institutions and the long wait for justice by victims of the past regime.

Years ago President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono declared that his main achievements would be vanquishing corruption and ending the impunity enjoyed by human rights violators. While this month's parliamentary election sets the stage for the presidential election--the country's second--due on July 8, 2009, its election pledges and principles are started to be unmasked as basic populism.

Indonesia remains a place where the killing of human rights defenders and civil society leaders goes unpunished. Five years (or a whole elective period) ago, human rights leader Munir Said Thalib was assassinated. While some of the henchmen involved in his death were convicted--in a queer process that needed a Supreme Court judgement to be reviewed--the main suspects continue to shape political life in Indonesia. Former National Intelligence Agency (BIN) deputy chief Muchdi Purwopranjono was acquitted of the assassination charges in December 2009, not long after two key BIN witnesses withdrew from the case under mysterious circumstances. Muchdi is now acting as vice-chairman of the Great Indonesia Movement Party, which is running in this election. Nobel Peace Prize laureate Jose Ramos Horta named Muchdi in 1999 as one of the generals responsible for the destruction of East Timor.

True justice in Indonesia is elusive. Current election promises to fight poverty and corruption stand starkly against the impunity still on display. Worse than that, direct discussions of issues of human rights and impunity are lacking in the electoral programs. Will this election be a move forward for the re-born democracy, or are indicators pointing to a dip in Indonesia, in terms of human rights, social justice and the rule of law?

The official approach to social unrest, like that in the West Papua region, continues to rely heavily on the military, and the arrest of peaceful public protestors is common. On April 3, 2009, the office of the Papua customary council was raided, with property confiscated and 17 persons arrested by police officers; a tent used by student activists was also burned down. Of those arrested some remain in detention on charges of separatism.

Can a country be called democratic when its civil society actors--its activists, human rights defenders and others--are facing such a situation, and where even the murder of human rights defenders remains unpunished?

The acquittal of Muchdi shows the failure of the justice system in Indonesia, and the shadow of Munir gives witness to the country s downturn. It seems that the reformative spirit of 1998 in Indonesia got lost somewhere along the way. Democracy without rule of law is not a just democracy, and a democratic process that doesn't prioritise justice is hardly an expression of people's power.

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