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Contents:
One Winner, Many Losers [16 April]
No surprises are expected when the results of Indonesia’s election is announced. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is the undoubted winner. His Democratic Party almost tripled its vote from the last election in 2004 to take first place among the 38 contesting parties with a preliminary 20.5%. Golkar, led by Jusuf Kalla, the vice-president, and the largest party in the old parliament, is one big loser, with 14.5% (down from 21.6%). So is the opposition Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, or PDI-P, of Megawati Sukarnoputri, a former president, also with 14.5% (18.3%). [full story…]
Also: Insight by Jusuf Wanandi: SBY Gains Wider Support: What Will Happen Next? [16 April] [full story…]
Claims Millions Missed Vote [16 April]
A group of senior Indonesian political leaders say last week's general election was marred by widespread fraud and administrative errors. The group, led by presidential hopeful Megawati Sukarnoputri, says the organisation of the polls was the worst since Indonesia moved to democracy a decade ago. Now a group of activists are threatening to take the government to court unless it calls fresh polls for the millions of voters they say missed out. [full story…]
Also: Civil Lawsuits Against Govt, KPU Begin Pouring In [17 April] [full story…]
Nightmare Scenario: A Constitutional Cisis [18 April] [full story…]
Slow Vote Count Exposes KPU's Poor Performance [21 April] [full story…]
Tempo editorial: After a Bad Election [21 April] [full story…]
Indonesia’s Flourishing Democracy Farish A Noor [17 April]
Perhaps in the end this is what a mature democracy looks and feels like; where people can vote freely and live in a country with a free press and open society without fear of being attacked or arrested according to the whim of a despot. The other leaders of ASEAN should take note, and give Indonesia the respect it deserves. For in this corner of Southeast Asia at least, democracy is growing fast and will blossom soon. [full story…]
Also: Indonesia: Unlikely Champion [17 April] [full story…]
ST/McBeth: Democracy Despite The Flaws [18 April] [full story…]
Indonesia's Muslims Position for Power [17 April]
Despite a fall in the overall vote for Islamic and religious inspired parties from 38 percent in 2004 to about 28 percent in 2009, and negative comments in the press, a cluster of Islamic parties are positioning to join the emerging Indonesian governing coalition for the next five years. [full story..]
Also: Islam, Democracy and the 2009 Elections [21 April] [full story…]
Kalla's VP Candidacy Gains Support [18 April]
A move to keep the duo of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Vice President Jusuf Kalla has gained further ground as Golkar Party leaders agreed to let its provincial chapter heads select the running mate for Yudhoyono in the July election. [full story…]
Also: Just Say ‘No’ to Kalla, PKS Tells SBY [18 April] [full story…]
The Week In Review: No Sleep For Kalla [19 April] [full story…]
U-Turn Of A Reformist, Megawati Sukarnoputri [18 April] [full story…]
The Thinker: SBY Needs to Wipe Slate Clean for Poll [20 April] [full story…]
Tempo editorial: Pondering Political Partners [21 April] [full story…]
Prabowo strengthening his bases [18 April]
Retired general Prabowo Subianto, former special forces chief and now leader of the up-and-coming Gerindra party, talks to The Straits Times in an exclusive interview on why his is a party to be reckoned with. [full story…]
Aceh Party’s Victory Offers Hope, Concern [18 April]
Former separatist combatants have managed to transform the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) into a major local political force after last week's legislative elections. Early official results of election vote counts show that the Aceh Party (PA), established by former rebels, secured a majority of votes in the country's westernmost province. [full story…]
Economist: In The Mix; SBY Reform Hope Have Not Improved Greatly [21 April]
Exit polls from the April 9th parliamentary elections suggest that Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Indonesia’s president, has enjoyed mixed fortunes. Mr Yudhoyono’s party, the Democratic Party (PD), has done much better than at the last elections in 2004 and may be able on its own to nominate him as a candidate in the presidential election due in July. But the PD has not done as well as recent opinion polls suggested. If Mr Yudhoyono goes on to win the presidential election, he will have to manage another unwieldy coalition, limiting his scope for economic reform. [full story…]
Book review: An Insiders Look At Golkar’s Ups And Downs [19 April]
Golkar’s success in maintaining its supremacy in Indonesian politics one way or another cannot be separated from the leadership of its chairmen. Politik Komunikasi Partai Golkar di Tiga Era (Communication Politics of Golkar Party under Three Different Leaderships) by Rully Chairul Azwar, Golkar’s deputy secretary-general, discusses the different leadership styles of three Golkar chairmen Harmoko, Akbar Tandjung and Jusuf Kalla. The book presents in detail the strategies and maneuvers taken by Harmoko and Akbar Tandjung, in their attempts to maintain
Golkar’s supremacy in Indonesian politics. [full story…]
Also: Analysis-Indonesia's Golkar Bruised But Not Out After Polls [20 April] [full story…]
Jakarta Post editorial: Army Generals Close Ranks [17 April]
It is a rude awakening in politics: Those who voted in the April 9 legislative elections may now find their favorite parties seeking alliances with partners who are not to their liking. Those who voted for nationalist-secular parties such as PDI-P (the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle) may have felt their choices have been spoiled by looming coalitions with two ultra-nationalists clouded with past military abuses. [full story…]
Also: Military Supports Poll Results, Emphasizes Neutrality [20 April] [full story…]
Susilo Could Get First Round Win [20 April]
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is heavily favoured to earn a new term in office as Indonesia’s president, according to a poll by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI). 53 per cent of respondents would vote for Susilo in this year’s election. [full story…]
Tempo: Ghost of Terror Grips Papua [21 April]
In the lead-up to the elections, Papua was hit by terror. The OPM was accused of involvement, but its leaders behind bars deny it. [full story…]
Ani Widyani Soetjipto: Women in Politics [21 April]
For lecturer and activist Ani Widyani Soetjipto, the 2009 legislative elections were a big loss for the women's movement as female candidates, many of them former activists, failed to win seats. [full story…]
Indonesia's Election Results: One Winner, Many Losers
The Economist (UK)
April 16, 2009
The president on course for re-election
JAKARTA -- IN THE week after Indonesia’s parliamentary election on April 9th, the much-criticised election commission tabulated less than 7.5% of the estimated 123m votes cast. But five independent “quick counts”, based on samples of several thousand polling stations, produced almost identical results. So no surprises are expected.
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is the undoubted winner. His Democratic Party almost tripled its vote from the last election in 2004 to take first place among the 38 contesting parties with a preliminary 20.5%. Golkar, led by Jusuf Kalla, the vice-president, and the largest party in the old parliament, is one big loser, with 14.5% (down from 21.6%). So is the opposition Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, or PDI-P, of
Megawati Sukarnoputri, a former president, also with 14.5% (18.3%).
A cluster of Islamist parties saw their combined support slump from 39% to 29.5%. Only the Prosperous Justice Party, or PKS, the most Islamist party, which came fourth with about 8.4%, bucked the trend. Nine parties appear to have passed the threshold of 2.5% of the national vote needed to win seats in the 560-member parliament. These include two new parties, Gerindra (4.5%) and Hanura (3.8%). Their leaders are former generals, respectively Prabowo Subianto and Wiranto.
The election was undoubtedly chaotic with more than 1,000 reported electoral violations, twice the number recorded in 2004. But despite loud, if largely baseless, cries of foul by some losers there is little likelihood the result will be nullified. AFP Yudhoyono holds all the cards
It was striking that popular, which usually also means competent, regional officials did well. In at least three of the 33 provinces, the party of the popular governor not only won but did markedly better than elsewhere. Directly elected local officials seem certain to grow in importance as national politicians.
Attention now turns to July’s election for the powerful presidency. Candidates must be nominated by parties, or coalitions of parties, that won more than 20% of the seats or 25% of the popular vote in the parliamentary election. There could be as many as four pairings (the president and vice-president run as a ticket). But it is hard to look beyond Mr Yudhoyono.
One exit poll of 7,500 voters gave him 42% support, Ms Megawati 13.4%, Mr Prabowo 5.7% and the rest even less. In another poll, conducted in February, Mr Yudhoyono scored 64% to Ms Megawati’s 23% in a head-to-head race.
Mr Yudhoyono’s dilemma is his choice of running mate. He has indicated he wants a strong parliamentary base and so Mr Kalla is the most obvious choice. But Golkar is deeply divided and Mr Kalla’s enemies have been energised by the party’s poor showing. PKS is lobbying hard for the vice-presidency but might cost the
secular Mr Yudhoyono votes and should be satisfied with a few cabinet seats. Mr Yudhoyono is expected to make his choice once Golkar has finished its bloodletting.
If Golkar sticks with Mr Yudhoyono, his opponents face an uphill struggle. The appeal of Ms Megawati, whom My Yudhoyono trounced in 2004, is waning but no other PDI-P figure has a remotely similar stature. Her best chance of unseating Mr Yudhoyono may be to swallow her considerable pride and join a Prabowo ticket. But most analysts reckon that, whatever the pairings, only a huge unforeseen scandal can halt the Yudhoyono juggernaut.
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SBY Gains Wider Support: What Will Happen Next?
The Jakarta Post
April 16, 2009
Jusuf Wanandi
Insight
The people have spoken. Although many mistakes were made by the General Elections Commission (KPU) and minor disturbances and irregularities took place, the April 9 legislative elections in
general have been peaceful and fair.
As predicted in many surveys over the last few months, the Democratic Party of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has become the number one party in parliament. According to quick counts by several survey institutions, the party gained about 20 percent of votes, or triple the support it got in 2004. The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the Golkar Party came in second and third, each garnering around 14 percent of popular votes.
They are the three first-tier parties, and they all are nationalist. The rise of the Democratic Party stemmed from SBY’s popularity, which masked a very weak party machine. SBY has achieved wide popular support due to his populist policies that were acceptable to the people.
Those policies have not contributed to overcoming unemployment or eradicating poverty, although they do not seem to matter to the people during the elections. They also can create a lot of damage in the future, and SBY’s government may be ill-prepared for a real downturn in the Indonesian economy due to the continuing crisis. It is expected the crisis will exert a greater impact still on the economy in June or July.
In the meantime, SBY has greater leverage now to choose his vice presidential candidate, because only the Democratic Party will be able to reach the parliamentary threshold of 20 percent of seats. But it will become more difficult for him to form a majority coalition in parliament that could make or break his programs in the next five years.
Support for the PDI-P declined by 5 percent from 2004 (from 19 percent to 14 percent), while Golkar experienced a greater fall, by 7 percent, from 21 percent in 2004 to 14 percent this year. As the main opposition party, the PDI-P could not dent SBY’s popularity in the eyes of the people outside their true
believers, because of the “teflon” impact their attacks (and those of other parties) had on SBY.
Golkar’s decline was due to their late efforts to consolidate the party, although the poor results of last year’s regional elections for governors in many regions, especially in North Sumatra and West Java, should have been a warning. Golkar was also unable to capitalize on the achievements of the government to boost their popularity, as SBY and the Democratic Party did.
The second tier of parties is led by the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), who only gained 1 percent more than they did in 2004. In the end, the urban middle class who previously supported the PKS appear to have had second thoughts when they saw how the PKS governor in West Java created havoc by banning the performance of a popular folk dance like jaipongan. Furthermore, their role in the anti-pornography legislation and support for sharia law as a legal benchmark in more than 50 regencies is being watched closely.
But the more interesting question now is what will happen next.
With SBY’s popularity and the achievement of the Democratic Party in the legislative elections, SBY is naturally the favorite to win the presidential election. And it is now up to him to look for his VP candidate and to form his coalition, which he needs to craft a parliamentary majority to push his programs through.
Creating a coalition will not be difficult for him because the smaller parties will want to join the government, but it will be another matter to ensure these parties will consistently support his programs. Who will he invite as his VP? Several times during the campaign he tried to persuade Jusuf Kalla from Golkar to stay on as his VP, but Kalla was unable to commit because he was dependent on his party’s decision.
Of late, however, Kalla has given indications he will join SBY as VP and will bring Golkar back into the coalition in parliament to support the new government under SBY. In doing so, he will prevent the PKS becoming SBY’s closest partner in the coalition. SBY has been especially weak toward moves by conservative Muslims to impose sharia law on the pluralist and nationalist state based on Pancasila. The PKS has tried to portray itself as a non-Islamic party, but the trust that non-Muslims need to fully accept this party in the same manner as they have accepted the PAN and the PKB is not there yet, especially in the party’s genuine support for a pluralistic Indonesia. In addition, the decision-making process in that
party is not transparent.
SBY’s need to secure a majority in parliament to support government policies is the main bargaining point for Kalla and Golkar. Kalla still has to deal with dissenting views within Golkar, but most of the factions and their leaders have always preferred to be in the government rather than outside it.
The PDI-P, meanwhile, is crafting a coalition with Gerindra and Hanura. It should be aware the two leaders of those parties are still under a political cloud due to their past military abuses in Jakarta and East Timor. This could be a great liability for the PDI-P and Megawati in the presidential election.
But it is good for the PDI-P to participate in the presidential election to show that democracy is alive in Indonesia and that there is opposition to SBY in the election and in parliament. It will be an uphill battle for the PDI-P to win, but they have been in opposition before and have done this very effectively. They also have the trust of a decent number of people in building a nationalist state.
The writer is vice chairman of the CSIS Foundation’s board of trustees.
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Claims Millions Missed Indonesia Vote
Radio Australia
April 16, 2009A group of senior Indonesian political leaders say last week's general election was marred by widespread fraud and administrative errors.
The group, led by presidential hopeful Megawati Sukarnoputri, says the organisation of the polls was the worst since Indonesia moved to democracy a decade ago.
Now a group of activists are threatening to take the government to court unless it calls fresh polls for the millions of voters they say missed out.
Presenter: Joanna McCarthy
Speaker: Frans Winarta, a board member of the Indonesian Legal Aid Foundation
JOANNA McCARTHY, REPORTER: President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has admitted that incomplete voter rolls during last week's election left some people unable to cast a ballot. There are also allegations the rolls included dead and fictitious people, that the distribution of ballot papers was delayed and that election officials were biased towards the ruling parties.
Now the Indonesian Legal Aid Foundation is threatening to file lawsuits against the General Elections Commission, the KPU, the government and the President. Unofficial early counts show President Yudhoyono's Democratic Party as the winner of the election, taking just over 20 per cent of the vote. But the
foundation says 45 million eligible voters were left off the rolls and it wants to see fresh polls for all who missed out.
Foundation board member Frans Winarta.
FRANS WINARTA: A lot of people complain, not only the political party but most important is the people of Indonesia in various places all over the place, all over Indonesia, complain about the absence of the invitation to vote for the ballot box at that times. I think there's about 20 per cent of the voters has not been invited to the ballot box and this is serious because that is a big margin for a country like Indonesia.
JOANNA McCARTHY: In what ways do you say the KPU showed a lack of neutrality?
FRANS WINARTA: There are complaints about their siding with certain political parties, for instance, there are reports that some of the, let's say, officers at the ballot box and also officers of the KPU are siding the political party especially during the voting. There are some officers who have been reported are guiding the voters what to elect, you know, which party they have to elect. That is pretty serious to me.
JOANNA McCARTHY: Indeed, and is this why the Indonesian Legal Aid Institute is also threatening to file suit against the government and President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono?
FRANS WINARTA: Correct, because one year or let's say six months before the election, as a matter of fact, there are reports that they are not ready because the ballot box has not been sent and even the papers to, the ballot papers has not also been printed, and it has not been allocated to the various areas in Indonesia. It is a vast country, of course, as you know, so this is a very serious condition at the time, but again the government and KPU doesn't want to listen and they go ahead. Now the question is, is the presidential election going to be conducted as scheduled or is it going to be delayed, you know? That is the question because of the bad experience during the parliamentary election.
JOANNA McCARTHY: You would have seen the statement from party leaders including the PDI-P, Gerindra and Hanura, who say the organisation of these elections was the worst since Indonesia entered the reform era. Would you agree with that?
FRANS WINARTA: I think yes but most important to me is not from the political parties. The complaint comes directly from the society. That is more important. And I think there are a lot of people demanding to have, let's say, a follow-up election, you know, for those who have not been legally invited.
JOANNA McCARTHY: So when would you like to see those follow-up elections held? Would that be as soon as possible?
FRANS WINARTA: Not more than one month from the date of elections, I think, exactly 30 days from the date of election there must be a follow-up election.
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Civil Lawsuits Against Govt, KPU Begin Pouring In
The Jakarta Post
April 17, 2009
Civil society groups began filing lawsuits Thursday against the government and the General Elections Commission (KPU) over elections shortcomings.
The plaintiffs based their lawsuits on their disappointment with the voting process during the general elections.
They deemed the elections fraudulent because many people were not listed in the voter lists and were thus unable to vote.
On Thursday, the Central Jakarta District Court held the first hearing between the People's Lawyers Union (SPR) against the President, the KPU and the home minister.
None of the defendants nor their representatives were present for the hearing, which SPR spokesman Habiburokhman called "very disappointing".
"We are very disappointed. We submitted the necessary files for this hearing a week ago, and the defendants' offices are not far from the court," he told reporters after the hearing.
Presiding judge Reno Listowo said the defendants might had missed the hearing because they were too busy with other matters, such as running the country.
"That's not a good enough reason, in my opinion, because they can at least send an official letter or representative. The government always fails to show up for the first hearing, which indicates they want to buy more time," Habiburokhman said.
Reno said the court could send a warning letter to the defendants to request their presence at the next hearing next Thursday.
"If by then the defendants fail to show up, we will demand the court continue with the trial against them in absentia," Habiburokhman said.
In the lawsuit, the plaintiffs accused the defendants of violating Law no. 22/2007 and Article 22(e) of the 1945 Constitution on direct, honest and fair general elections by neglecting the inaccuracies in the voter lists.
"For that, we demand the court rule against the defendants – the KPU, the home minister and the President - and find them guilty for their violations," he added.
SPR brought the case to court on behalf of FX Arief Poyuono, a citizen who claimed he "almost had his constitutional right to vote robbed during the elections and had to fight his way through to earn *his* rights back".
Habiburokhman said despite being only one man, Arief represented Indonesians as a whole in the lawsuit.
He added that neither his client nor the union demanded that revotes be held.
"We're not looking for revotes," he said.
Meanwhile, the Indonesian Legal Aid Association (PBHI) has also filed lawsuits and demanded another election for disenfranchised voters.
PBHI chairman Syamsuddin Radjab told The Jakarta Post he had filed the lawsuit on Tuesday and expected the first hearing to begin by April 21.
Syamsuddin and representatives of other civil society groups claimed the government and the KPU had left around 45 million voters disenfranchised through sheer ignorance and negligence in drawing up and updating the voter lists.
The government and the KPU are likely to be on the receiving end of even more lawsuits, after the leaders of 13 political parties said recently they would collaborate to gather evidence for legal action over the elections irregularities. (hdt)
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Nightmare Scenario: A Constitutional Crisis
The Jakarta Post
April 18, 2009
Endy M. Bayuni
Commentary
Let’s stop congratulating ourselves about our democratic elections that confirmed Indonesia was the third largest democracy in the world. And let’s hold off all the praises from abroad saying we held another largely peaceful election.
We are facing a situation, a serious one, which could push the country to the brink of a constitutional crisis. Depending on how the political elite handles the aftermath of the April 9 parliamentary elections, things could unravel fast in the coming weeks.
Here is a not so implausible nightmare scenario.
The majority of parties, including one or two of the larger ones, refuse to accept the election results when those are formally announced May 9, pointing to — and rightly so — the millions of people who were disenfranchised by the process.
This would delay the rest of the electoral process, including the presidential elections scheduled for July 8. With President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s five-year mandate ending mid-October, Indonesia will have no government beyond that point. Our constitution does not say anything about temporarily extending the current government’s mandate, nor about the formation of an interim government.
We have never been in this situation before, which is why the 1945 Constitution does not address the issue. A country of 240 million people made up of diverse races, ethnicities, cultures and religions, spread over 17,000 islands without a government? Although this situation is unthinkable, many constitutional
experts now fear it will unravel.
Every day we hear new stories about people who were not able to vote on April 9 as they were not registered. No one has been able to estimate the size of this group of disenfranchised voters, but the number is clearly very high. Political observer Effendi Ghozaly’s early estimate of 10 million disenfranchised
voters (based on 20 voters excluded from each of the 500,000 or so polling stations) now seems like a conservative figure. Others have suggested the number is as high as 20 and even 40 million.
Regardless of what the actual figure is, it’s clearly huge. And regardless of the motives behind parties — including the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) — filing a lawsuit against the government and the General Elections Commission (KPU) over this issue, they do represent the aspirations of the disenfranchised voters.
Many voters are upset, angry and outraged at being deprived of their constitutional right to vote. Lest someone took the initiative to capture their feelings, they could easily vent their anger in the streets. This has not happened yet, thank God.
The nightmare scenario will likely happen if the PDI-P, as one of the three largest parties, refuses to endorse the parliamentary elections results on May 9.
The KPU and the government could afford to ignore the small parties (as they did in 1999) and rule the election results valid. But they cannot ignore the PDI-P, whose chairperson Megawati Soekarnoputri is the only serious candidate facing SBY in the presidential elections. If she does not run, the elections in July will be a farce.
What is saddening about this whole episode is the government’s and the KPU’s response. They seem to have dismissed the grievances of disenfranchised voters as a minor problem and are keen to get on with the preparations for the July presidential elections.
Neither the KPU nor the government have bothered to try and explain to voters — whose rights were denied — what happened on April 9 and what remedial actions can be offered. To date, no one has taken ownership of this mess. Instead, everybody is trying to wash their hands of it and pass the buck to others.
The KPU blames the ministry of home affairs for providing an incomplete voters list in the first place, while the ministry says its job was done once the list was handed to the KPU. On Tuesday, the government broadened the ranks of culprits, saying political parties and voters were also to blame in this mess. On
Thursday, President Yudhoyono put the blame squarely on the KPU in his televised address.
While everyone seems to be playing the blame game, no one has been able to tell the millions of disenfranchised voters what they plan to do about reinstating their constitutional right to vote.
The message from the government and the KPU is: “Let’s just move on, for the sake of expediency”. This sounds like an episode from the Soeharto years. Expediency was so much more important than substance, even the results were fixed before hand.
A revote would probably be prohibitively expensive, and some argue the results would not be that different as Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party would still win. But to argue this is to deny the people’s constitutional right.
At the end of the day, the nation’s political elite should be the ones deciding the proper course of action to take to avert a constitutional crisis. A revote may be the last option, but it should not be ruled out completely.
Megawati and her PDI-P party could endorse the election results, albeit with some reservations, but still allow the presidential elections to take place as scheduled.
But President Yudhoyono, as the head of the state, should take ownership of this whole mess, both on behalf of the government and the KPU and apologize to those voters whose rights were deprived.
For good measure, he should fire the entire KPU board as well as his minister of home affairs, the two institutions most responsible for this election mess. He should also fire his political advisors who keep suggesting he pass the buck to someone else.
Most importantly, he should offer a public apology. He will be surprised how the nation will appreciate the gesture. Most, if not all of the disenfranchised voters, would accept it and agree to move on.
But as the saying goes, sorry seems to be the hardest word to say in Indonesian politics.
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Slow Vote Count Exposes KPU's Poor Performance
The Jakarta Post
April 21, 2009
JAKARTA/BANDUNG/YOGYAKARTA
The electronic but slow vote counting finally came to an end after almost two weeks on Monday, as the General Elections Commission (KPU) races against time to complete the counting of paper ballots from the April 9 legislative elections.
Only 13 million out of approximately 170 million votes were counted as the KPU moved vote counting to its office, after spending Rp 30 billion (US$2.8 million) on scanner technology to provide online vote tabulation capabilities, Rp 18 billion on communications — not to mention the rental fee for a spacious room at the five-star Borobudur Hotel in Central Jakarta.
Not even the members of the poll body are happy with the computerized vote counting process.
Sri Nuryanti, the KPU member overseeing fixed voter list, said the commission was considering stopping use of the electronic system.
“We should conduct a thorough evaluation toward the whole system as to avoid the same problem from happening in the presidential election,” she said.
She acknowledged the problems rested mostly with the data synchronization process.
“Unlike in the 2004 election, when the KPU brought the whole electronic system to regional branches, this time around we only endorsed it and left the rest to the regional branches. In other words, we cannot control them,” she said.
Problems with scanner machines used to transfer data during the synchronization process exacerbated problems.
Poll observers said the slow vote count only confirmed the KPU's managerial flaws, following the voter list brouhaha.
“The KPU had better hire more people to enter the manual data. This offers us more certainty than the technology the KPU is using right now,” Hadar Gumay of the Centre for Electoral Reform (Cetro), said.
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has ordered Home Minister Mardiyanto to grill the KPU over its slow counting.
Yudhoyono said the government was ready to help the KPU finish the count on time.
“I've been following news that the KPU, despite its use of an electronic system, has been seen as doing the count slowly. Some even said the manual count would have been faster," Yudhoyono said after opening a Cabinet meeting on elections at the Presidential Office.
“Therefore I've asked the home minister to establish communications with the KPU in this regard, and to ask for an explanation whether the KPU can comply with the set timetable. It should be able to."
In Bandung, representatives from 21 political parties in West Java walked out from a plenary meeting to endorse manual vote counting at the local KPU. The group threatened not to sign the election results as they suspect a significant disparity between actual and official results.
“To us the general election only represents the will of big political parties,” Asep Dariadi, a spokesman for the group, said.
The vote count shows the Democratic Party finished first in Bandung with 442,769 votes, followed by the Prosperous Justice Party, which collected 185,596 votes.
Meanwhile in Bantul, Yogyakarta, the local elections commission failed to announce the results of vote counting after data files from all districts were corrupted by a virus.
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Tempo Magazine
No. 34/IX
April 21-27, 2009
Editorial
The legislative election was chaotic. The General Elections Commission must work harder to ensure a better presidential election, which should be less complicated.
THE chaos of the legislative election is still evident even today, specifically at the national tabulation center in Jakarta’s Borobudur Hotel. The votes come in spurts, indicating just how difficult the final tallying must be in the regions. It seems the numbers are still being disputed by the General Elections Commission (KPU) in the cities and regencies. Moreover, many problems are still unresolved at the district committee level.
Aside from the difficulty of recapitulating votes because of the large number of parties and thousands of candidates, carelessness on the part of the KPU—especially in the regions—is the root cause. Many ballot papers were sent to the wrong electoral districts. This is a problem, although a KPU member said the ballot papers being sent to the wrong places was not a problem. The KPU cannot underestimate this matter. The
accidental switching of ballot papers meant that voters could not find the candidates they wanted to vote for. In the end, elections had to be repeated in many places.
The most obvious mess and the reason why this election was the “worst” concerned the final voters list. Admittedly, the KPU was less than skillful in handling this problem, but it is not entirely to blame. The KPU obtained the data from the Home Affairs Department, whereas in the 2004 elections the information came from the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS). This was “raw data” that the KPU had to verify.
It was here that there was negligence. Names were included several times, young children were registered and the names of people who had died were not removed. But the most conspicuous problem was the people who were not included on the list, with the result that many were unable to vote.
The KPU is not alone in bearing the responsibility for the errors because the provisional voters list was circulated beforehand among the public, and even political parties, to make corrections. It is easy to guess that few people bothered to go to the subdistrict offices to see if their names had been included or not.
The public was partly to blame, as were the political parties and the KPU. As a result, the turnout was very low. So what can be done to minimize these problems for the July presidential election? Well, we hope the KPU will quickly and carefully verify once more the voters list. Then it needs to be posted at subdistrict offices as soon as possible. People who were not registered for the April 9 vote must make the effort to ensure their names are on the list. There is no way apart from “making the effort”.
The presidential election will be very simple. At most, there will be three candidate teams. The ballot papers will be small, and there will only be one kind for the whole country. Therefore everyone should focus on fixing the problem with the final voters list.
An easy method for the presidential election would be eliminating the need for a final voters list. Everyone with an ID card would be asked to vote wherever he or she may be. The process of issuing ID cards should be improved, and for those “greedy” people with more than one card, “voting ink” could be used to ensure they only vote once.
Unfortunately, this simple solution contradicts the Election Law, which stipulates there must be a final voters list. This is a product of our parliamentarians at Senayan. A law drawn up to make things easier is actually complicating matters. Yet, when the complexity led to problems, they joined in the protests.
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Indonesias Flourishing Democracy Farish A Noor
Daily Times (Pakistan)
April 17, 2009
Perhaps in the end this is what a mature democracy looks and feels like; where people can vote freely and live in a country with a free press and open society without fear of being attacked or arrested according to the whim of a despot
While doing fieldwork on the island of Madura last week, I stopped for a while to do one of those necessary things we all need to do sooner or later: get a haircut. My colleague and fellow academic Toharudin and I stopped by a small, somewhat forlorn barbers shop in Sumenep and set down on the rickety chairs as we were shaved and made to look semi-civilised at least.
In due course, the conversation with the barber turned to politics and the recent elections of April 9. Pak Sulis, the barber, opined thus: I am happy that the Partai Demokrat [Democratic Party] won the highest number of votes for the Parliamentary elections, and I hope SBY [Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono] will be elected...President. He has done so much for the country brought peace to Aceh, fought against corruption...he needs another term to consolidate and build the country further. We need continuity now; the five years after the fall of Suharto were too traumatic for people like me.
Pak Sulis opinion was matched by the electorate, which gave the Partai Demokrat the highest number of votes and, consequently, seats at the recent elections. But what was interesting for me was how this man who admitted that he was semi-literate and whose education stopped at the age of 11 was more concerned
about actual political results than empty rhetoric.
Pak Sulis, like millions of ordinary Indonesians, wants to see democracy succeed. And to make their point, the Indonesian people voted for the three main parties whose ideologies were secular, nationalist and development-oriented. All in all, the nationalist parties and the Islamist parties that were seen as being religiously sectarian were ousted.
For analysts like Dr Mohamad Nur Ichwan of Sunan Kalijaga Islamic University in Jogjakarta, the results were clear: The electorate has shown that the Islamic parties cannot win simply by talking about sharia and making sectarian claims for Muslims alone.
Indonesia, which had for too long been run down in the international press as a country tottering on the verge of collapse and diagnosed as a failed state, has made a comeback in no uncertain terms. While the governments of other ASEAN countries like Malaysia, Singapore and Burma/Myanmar continue down the path of measured authoritarianism, with dominant strongmen like Mahathir Mohamad and Lee Kuan Yew still pulling the strings, Indonesians have taken their fate into their own hands and said goodbye to the bad old days of military-backed, iron-fisted authoritarian rule.
The secret of Indonesias success is that this is a nation that was willing to give democracy a chance. Successive Indonesian leaders made their share of mistakes, but they also helped pave the way for the reform process we see today.
In particular some credit has to go to Abdurrahman Wahid (popularly known as Gus Dur) for removing senior army leaders like General Wiranto from cabinet and, crucially, opening up the public domain for debate. Gus Dur also performed the landmark gesture of fully and unreservedly acknowledging the place and role of the Chinese minority in Indonesia and insisting that they were fully-fledged Indonesians; thereby reversing decades of anti-Chinese racism that had become normalised during the Suharto era.
Pak Sulis love for President Yudhoyono, however, betrays the Indonesians love for their country and their past.
You know why I like him so much? He is like the great Prime Minister Gajah Mada during the glorious days of the Majapahit kingdom. The man is huge, tall, proud but soft-spoken, polite and well-mannered. He has never uttered a racist remark, never hurt the feelings of anyone. A true gentleman that we need.
Indeed, Yudhoyonos political campaign was singularly free of all scandal, abuse or insults against his competitors.
Perhaps in the end this is what a mature democracy looks and feels like; where people can vote freely and live in a country with a free press and open society without fear of being attacked or arrested according to the whim of a despot. The other leaders of ASEAN should take note, and give Indonesia the respect it deserves. For in this corner of Southeast Asia at least, democracy is growing fast and will blossom soon.
Dr Farish A Noor is a Senior Fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore; and one of the founders of the www.othermalaysia.org research site
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South China Morning Post
Friday, April 17, 2009
Peter Kammerer - peter.kamm@scmp.com
Cast your mind back five years or so. Which Southeast Asian country would you have put as a beacon for economic and democratic hope? Thailand would rank high, perhaps top, of the list; the perennial favourite, the Philippines, would have been close. No one would have given Indonesia much of a chance.
Yet, in the depths of financial meltdown, Thais have decided that what they have gained should be thrown away through political infighting. The Philippines is among a handful of nations the Asian Development Bank forecasts will enjoy economic growth this year, although its democratic institutions are under severe strain. Plunging exports have shot to pieces the economies of Singapore and Malaysia. Vietnam is automatically
excluded by its one-party system. Indonesia is left at the top of the heap.
Anyone predicting such a situation in 2004 would have been a laughing stock. Indonesia's economy was crushed by the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and its plight worsened by excessively tough International Monetary Fund bailout requirements. The end of Suharto's iron-fist rule in 1998 ushered in an awkward
democracy. From absolute political stability came a revolving-door presidency and parliament. The human rights violations were not as egregious, but rampant corruption remained.
Think Indonesia and we generally turn to those poor Transparency International showings. Bird flu has been badly managed. Indonesian airlines have Asia's worst record.
But as Indonesia expert Peter McCawley pointed out to me on Tuesday, perceptions can be deceptive. The visiting fellow at the Australian National University and former dean of the ADB Institute in Tokyo said the manner in which parliamentary elections had been held on April 9 and a reasonable projected growth rate of 3.6 per cent laid to rest ideas that the nation was a basket case. Smooth polling and sensible bargaining among parties seemed to prove that the system was functioning healthily. Conservative fiscal measures directed by good technocrats had strengthened the banking system and were getting the budget into shape.
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is not Asia's most dynamic politician; some may say he is dull. But during his 41/2 years in office he has done what we should expect of a leader: hold the team together, broker compromises and make decisions. This is happening in Indonesia and the system is working. It is not
in Thailand, as events of the past few days so plainly show.
Let's add another optimistic factor. US President Barack Obama's Indonesia connection augurs well. The fact he lived there for four years as a child means that, for the first time, an American leader has an acute awareness of the country. Being the world's third-biggest developing nation, its most populous Muslim state and seemingly now Southeast Asia's most promising democracy, he has even more reason to put it high on his agenda.
Dr McCawley cautioned that considerable challenges remained. Elections had been peaceful, but presidential polls in July could still prove disruptive. Dr Susilo is the favourite in opinion surveys, but former leader Megawati Sukarnoputri cannot be discounted. More than two contenders are probable, making it unlikely that the winner will get more than 50 per cent of the vote, forcing a run-off in September. Uncertainty abounds as to what would happen if Dr Susilo were not to win a second term.
The nation's economic fortunes can be put down to strong domestic demand shielding its economy from export and banking slumps elsewhere. Just how deep the global crisis will be is still unclear, though. Indonesia may yet find its progress reversing.
Then there's corruption, continued difficulty in governing territorial extremities like Aceh and Papua, improving the judicial system, lessening human rights abuses and keeping a lid on Muslim fundamentalism. Dr McCawley believes it will take another 30 or 40 years to fix these problems. The country is far from perfect. But, given the evidence, I agree that Indonesia is steadily becoming Southeast Asia's natural leader.
Peter Kammerer is a senior writer at the Post
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The Straits Times (Singapore)
April 18, 2009
John McBeth, Senior Writer
FOR all the best reasons, I haven't been eligible for my own country's elections since I left its shores in 1970. Yet I received a surprise invitation to vote in Indonesia's April 9 legislative elections.
Presumably, it would have taken more than just the official written notification for an obvious foreigner to cast his ballot at South Jakarta's polling station No. 70, conveniently located in a kindergarten tucked around the corner from my home. But it left me wondering just how many irregularities there had been in the world's biggest one-day elections and whether they will cast a cloud over the progress Indonesia has made in putting down democratic roots.
The answer: Probably not. The results of the official count are not due to be announced until May 9. It is only when the closeness of some of the individual contests becomes clear that the losers will mount the inevitable challenges. Nothing, however, is likely to change the overall outcome. Based on about 20 per cent of the ballots tallied so far, it will differ very little from the quick-count results issued soon after the polls
closed last week.
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party leads with 20.4 per cent of the vote, ahead of Golkar at 14.5 per cent, the Indonesian Democratic Party - Struggle (PDI-P) at 14.3 per cent and the Justice and Prosperity Party (PKS) at 8.2 per cent.
It is too early for any detailed analysis, but it is clear the Democrats scored major gains all across heavily populated Java, where about 60 per cent of the electorate lives. In Jakarta, they polled 36 per cent, double that of second-placed PKS, while in East and West Java and Banten they are well ahead of rivals.
The Democrats have also received a massive vote of confidence in troubled Aceh province, where the Yudhoyono government negotiated the historic 2005 peace agreement that ended nearly three decades of conflict.
Electoral researcher Kevin Evans says initial projections suggest the Democrats will win as many as 149 seats in the 560-seat House of Representatives, followed by Golkar (104 seats), PDI-P (101), PKS (57) and the National Mandate Party (42).
That means that if President Yudhoyono wins the July 8 first round of the presidential election, as he is widely expected to do, he will need only Golkar, PKS and perhaps the National Mandate Party (PAN) as his core coalition partners. By contrast, an unwieldly seven parties make up the current governing coalition, including the Democrats, Golkar, PKS, PAN, the National Awakening Party (PKB), the United Development Party (PPP) and the Crescent Star Party (PBB).
The Election Oversight Agency (Bawaslu) has received hundreds of complaints, many of them involving polling stations which received ballot papers that should have gone somewhere else. Showing little inclination to report on anything except the electoral process itself, the media had already devoted a lot of
ink slamming the General Elections Commission (KPU) for its poor organisation.
It was the same in the two previous elections, in 1999 and 2004, but this time there appeared to be more irregularities, beginning with flaws in the electoral rolls supplied last year by the Home Affairs Ministry.
In 2004, the KPU relied on lists provided by the Bureau of Statistics, based on data from a recently concluded nation-wide census. As a result, there were remarkably few problems. But under the amended 2007 Election Law, the task of maintaining the rolls was passed to Home Affairs, which is supposed to keep the lists up to date but clearly hasn't, largely because of the cost involved.
As it was, with only an estimated 80 per cent of the eligible voters registered, compared with 92 per cent five years ago, the KPU only had the resources to check the lists, not go out and fill in the gaps.
Experts say it is not unusual, even in well-developed Western democracies, to have dead people or children included among the voters. As one put it: 'Unless you are willing to spend a lot of money, it is always going to be an inexact science.'
Australia probably does a better job than most, but then it has to because voting there is compulsory, as it is in about 30 other countries, including Singapore.
The flaws in Indonesia's April 9 elections were generally administrative in nature and are not considered to be part of any grand design by the government to manipulate the eventual outcome. Electoral observers are also generally sanguine about the lower voter turnout - still a commendable 70 per cent, by most accounts, compared with 83 per cent in 2004. Constituents always turn out in greater numbers in rural than in urban areas, since entertainment is in short supply in rural areas and voting day is an opportunity for socialising.
But it is also true that the more mature a democracy, the fewer the people who actually exercise their voting rights. Look at the United States, where the turnout is often no more than 50 per cent.
Looking back on decades of authoritarian rule, however, older Indonesian voters at least should have better reasons than most for not taking what they have achieved so far for granted.
thane.cawdor@gmail.com
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Indonesia's Muslims Position for Power
Asia Sentinel
April 17, 2009
Terry Lacey
Don't count them out despite their overall falling numbers
Despite a fall in the overall vote for Islamic and religiousinspired parties from 38 percent in 2004 to about 28
percent in 2009, and negative comments in the press, a cluster of Islamic parties are positioning to join the emerging Indonesian governing coalition for the next five years.
Indonesia just completed legislative elections on April 9. The Democratic Party led by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono won with 20 percent of the votes and is forecast to win 141 seats in the House of Representatives, as against 56 last time.
There will be presidential elections in July after which a new government will be formed. The incumbent president and his party are in the best position to form a winning coalition and several religious parties are negotiating to join this prospective new government.
The Golkar Party, led by Vice President Jusuf Kalla, won only 14 percent of the votes and is forecast to win 97 seats, down from 127 last time. The Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), led by Megawati Sukarnoputri also won 14 percent and is forecast to win 102 seats this time, as against 107 last time.
The next four parties were Islamic or religious-inspired, won about 26 percent of the votes, and are forecast to win 166 of the seats, as against 208 seats last time. The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) won 8 percent of votes and is forecast to win 52 seats, against 45 last time. The National Mandate Party (PAN) gained 6 percent of the votes and is forecast to win 41 seats having held 53 last time. The United Development Party (PPP) and the National Awakening Party (PKB) both gained 5 percent of the votes. The PPP is forecast to hold only 37 of the 58 seats it held last time and the PKB, following a party split, is forecast to only hold 36 of the 52 seats it held last time.
This data is based on exit polls and quick count tallies, with the latter updated as the results are slowly confirmed. These predictions on seats were published by Harry Su of Bahana Securities in local media . The PKS is forecast to hold 31 percent of the religious party seats compared to 22 percent last time, with the more traditional religious parties losing ground.
Bahtiar Effendy writing in The Jakarta Post (17.04.09) interprets these results to mean that the Islamic parties are at an impasse and no longer an important factor in Indonesian politics.
If the religious parties are so unimportant, why are some observers attacking so hard the prospect of a continued coalition between the Democratic Party (DP) and the PKS?
Detractors emphasis PKS links with the Muslim Brotherhood. But others worry that a coalition between the private sector and the religious parties led by a stronger DP could mean a continuing Presidential push against corruption and for reform.
But why are some public comments so bleak on the prospects for the Islamic parties? The answer of course is politics. Firstly, the politics of news orientation during the formation of political coalitions, which may seek to influence the political game it reports.
For example, warning that "embracing the Islam-based PKS could cost Yudhoyono a second term" as argued by James van Zorge in the Asia Sentinel, despite the fact that the President led the same coalition in his first term, and is a lot stronger now !
Second, the politics of restructuring the Islamic parties and the relationships between them. The old conservatives are fighting a losing battle and internationalized radicals are making gains. But this is not new and the same cycles have happened in Indonesia before 9.11.
Finally there are concerns about a discernable international influence, reflecting different views on how to handle the rise of a new generation of internationalized political Islam, not only in Indonesia, but also in Malaysia, Egypt, Turkey and Palestine and elsewhere in the Muslim world.
The shape of the next Indonesian ruling coalition will shake out in the next few weeks and Indonesia will continue to prove that it can cope with political Islam in a democratic framework.
Terry Lacey is a development economist who writes from Jakarta on modernization in the Muslim world, investment and trade relations with the EU and Islamic banking.
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Islam, Democracy and the 2009 Elections
The Jakarta Post
April 21, 2009
Ahmad Suaedy
Op-Ed
In his book Islam in Indonesia in the Twenty-First Century (2008), Fred R. Von der Mehden argues that Indonesia has a Muslim majority and is democratic, although time is needed before this democracy stabilizes.
However, it is more than enough to confirm that Islam and democracy are compatible.
Quick count estimates on the 2009 elections indicate that Islamist political parties (those parties promoting an Islamic ideology, and nationalist Islamic parties whose support comes largely from the Muslim community) experienced a significant decrease in the votes they were able to secure at a legislative level.
In the 1999 election, Islamist parties - comprising the United Development Party (PPP) 10.71 percent, the Crescent Star Party (PBB) 1.94 percent, and the Justice Party (PK) 1.36 percent - obtained a total of around 14 percent of the vote. And combined with the Nationalist Islamic parties - the National Awakening Party (PKB) 12.61 percent and National Mandate Party (PAN) 7.12 percent - these Islamic parties secured 35 percent of the vote.
In the 2004 election, Islamist parties - comprising PKS (PK had to change its name to PKS because it failed to get the minimum threshold in the 1999 elections) 7.34 percent and PPP 8.15 percent - won a total of 16 percent of the vote. The nationalist Islamic parties, PKB and PAN, won 10.57 percent and 6.44 percent, respectively. All together, they secured 33 percent.
According to quick count estimates on the 2009 election, PPP and PKS have secured 5.45 percent and 8.46 percent, respectively (a total of 14 percent). Meanwhile, nationalist Islamic parties PKB and PAN are estimated to have won 5.12 percent and 6.36 percent. In total, they have only won 25.5 percent.
Thus the overall percentage of votes secured by Islamist parties and nationalist Islamic parties has decreased, even more so when compared to the 1955 election in which they obtained about 44 percent.
PKS has indeed gained a slightly larger percentage of votes compared to the 2004 election, but this can be seen as a cannibalization of votes from other Islamic parties, and not from nationalist parties. PKS is currently offering a pluralist orientation to voters, although this still features Islam as an ideology.
Taking into account the 2.5 percent parliament threshold, there are now five nationalist parties, three of whom won significant votes, namely the Democratic Party (PD) 20.33 percent, the Golkar Party 14.43 percent, and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) 14.31 percent.
The People's Conscience Party (Hanura) 4.42 percent, and the Great Indonesian Movement Party (Gerindra) 3.5 percent are two newcomers.
In this sense, the reality in Indonesia confirms Mehden's argument. Nationalist Islamic parties and those promoting an Islamic ideology are slowly sliding into obscurity, even though parties based on religious idealism are not always incompatible with democracy.
Parties maintaining an Islamic ideology can continue to exist as idealist parties advocating universal religious values and may evolve into universal parties, as was the case with the Democratic Christian Party that is currently in power in Germany.
In so far as it concerns the party system, exclusive Islamic ideologies are no longer able to meet the needs of those concerned about the existence of such Islamic parties or of those who still place hopes in the promise that ideological realization can change Indonesian state foundations.
However, in terms of their main actors and constituents, all parties in parliament are based on Islam, differing only in orientation and program priorities. Democracy, it seems, has given Indonesians the power to determine the orientation and future of Indonesia.
This is not to say all is well. Poverty, a lack of education, the potential for conflicts, and tendencies of intolerance and tyranny of certain understandings over others are still significant issues. Mehden proposes at least three agendas for Indonesia in the future.
The first is to maintain pluralism. In the past, the Indonesian reality and descriptions of Islam in Indonesia showed Indonesia as a flexible and tolerant nation.
However, recently conflicts have broken out in several places including Ambon, Poso and West Kalimantan, and there is tension and more minor outbreaks of violence elsewhere, and also Sharia bylaws which are constraint to democracy. Resolving conflicts and tension must be a priority.
Resolution must not be achieved purely through political authoritarianism, but through the construction of a political and social system based on original Indonesian culture.
Second, is to maintain democracy itself. There are three points to this.
First, Islamic-based parties are required to emerge and create a dynamic non-monolithic Islamic society in order to provide opportunities for various elements within the Muslim community.
Second, a multi-party system gives an opportunity to groups who feel marginalized to advocate their aspirations openly.
Third, accountability of political parties can guarantee the continuation of democracy and can reinforce society's belief in politics as a channel for advocating their interests and aspirations.
Radical Islam or Islamic groups who continue to promote violence and who coerce others must be processed legally. Their historical relationship with military actors and political interest groups in support of the status quo must be dealt with firmly but proportionally.
The election results in Indonesia prove that Islam is not just compatible with democracy, but that democracy can be as prosperous here as it is in other countries.
The writer is executive director of the Wahid Institute, Jakarta
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Kalla's VP Candidacy Gains Support
The Jakarta Post
April 18, 2009
A move to keep the duo of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Vice President Jusuf Kalla has gained further ground as Golkar Party leaders agreed Friday to let its provincial chapter heads select the running mate for Yudhoyono in the July election.
Golkar secretary-general Soemarsono said the party's plenary meeting Friday confirmed its coalition with Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party.
“Provincial chapters will decide names of Golkar's vice presidential candidates during the party's special executive meeting on April 23,” Soemarsono said after the meeting.
“They could propose a single candidate or more than two names to be offered to the coalition.” Soemarsono said heads of the party’s branches at regency level would be excluded from the process.
Last month Golkar chair Kalla declared his candidacy for the presidency with support from heads of the party's 33 provincial chapters.
He repeatedly reiterated his bid for the presidency during the open campaign ahead of the April 9 polls.
In his campaign, Kalla boasted he was a "better and faster" leader.
Kalla admitted he made up his mind for the presidency following an insulting statement from an executive of the Democratic Party who predicted Golkar would only secure about 2.5 percent of the vote in the legislative elections.
Soemarsono said that a significant drop in support in last week's polls had caused the party to reconsider its quest for the presidency.
“We must be realistic with the candidacy as we failed to meet our target of winning 20 percent of the votes in the legislative polls,” he said.
Earlier in the day, Golkar executive Syamsul Muarif said the party might not disclose any vice presidential candidates, but would ask Kalla to lead a special team to negotiate with Yudhoyono.
Previous surveys found that the ticket of Yudhoyono and Kalla would seal the race in just one round.
On Thursday Golkar’s West Java chairman Uu Rukmana said the party’s provincial heads would offer Kalla, media magnate Surya Paloh, advisory member Aburizal Bakrie, former chairman Akbar Tandjung, House Speaker Agung Laksono and Yogyakarta Governor Sultan Hamengkubuwono X to Yudhoyono as choices for running mate.
Senior executive of the Democratic Party Taufiq Effendi admitted that the party was still waiting for confirmation from Golkar on the candidacy of Kalla as the running mate for Yudhoyono.
“Is Golkar going for Kalla or not? We still want to form a coalition with Golkar as it will build a strong government and we will take into account their vice presidential candidate,” he said. Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) deputy secretary general Fahri Hamzah said the Muslim-based party would quit the
coalition with the Democratic Party if Yudhoyono took Kalla as his running mate.
“We might become an opposition or take an independent stance,” Fahri said Friday.
He said that the duo of Yudhoyono-Kalla was ineffective because of constant rifts between them.
PKS co-founder Hidayat Nur Wahid, asserted the party's bid to nominate a vice presidential candidate in the coalition with the Democratic Party would remain on the table.
He said the PKS was the only party, aside from the Democratic Party, that had managed to increase its votes in last week's polls.
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Just Say ‘No’ to Kalla, PKS Tells SBY
The Jakarta Globe
Saturday, April 18, 2009
Febriamy Hutapea
The Prosperous Justice Party, or PKS, continued its offensive against Vice President Jusuf Kalla on Friday, repeating its threat that it would consider withdrawing from any coalition if President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono again chose Kalla as his running mate.
The comments are another strike against the political ambitions of the Golkar chairman, who is already under fire for the massive drop in popularity of the once ruling political party.
Fachri Hamzah, deputy secretary general of the PKS, said the pairing of Yudhoyono and Kalla hadn’t created an effective government because they had failed to establish control of the House or Representatives, or DPR, with parties that had joined Yudhoyono’s United Indonesia Cabinet often opposing the president’s policies.
Central to this failing was the competition between Yudhoyono and Kalla, as demonstrated by the fact that they often conducted their own cabinet meetings, Fachri said.
This breached the country’s presidential system where there was only supposed to be one leader, he said during a discussion in the House. “The competition between president and vice president should not have happened. Two leaders at the same time shouldn’t be allowed.”
Fachri also criticized Yudhoyono for installing ministers who were also chairpersons of their respective political parties, as Yudhoyono could not criticize his ministers without creating opposition in the House.
He said the Islam-based party wanted serious change in the next administration and it was vital that Yudhoyono team up with a person who was no longer active within a political party.
Fachri rejected suggestions that the threat was a tactic to ensure the PKS, currently fourth in the vote tally with more than 8 percent of the vote, was offered the vice presidency for joining Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party-led coalition.
“This is a way to create a better government. If those things can’t be accommodated, it’s difficult for us to join the coalition,” he said.
Fachri criticized Golkar and Kalla’s decision to abandon running for the presidency against Yudhoyono.
“Kalla always said in his campaign that he can run the government better. He should prove it,” he said.
The stinging criticism of Kalla follows threats from PKS Secretary General Anis Matta on Monday that it would withdraw from the “Golden Bridge” alliance formed with the Democratic Party, the National Awakening Party, or PKB, and the National Mandate Party, or PAN, if it was to join forces with Golkar.
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The Week In Review: No Sleep For Kalla
The Jakarta Post
Sunday, April 19, 2009
This week, the Indonesian media was still preoccupied with the results and consequences of the April 9 legislative elections. But on Thursday, there was a shocking but also funny announcement from the Food and Drug Monitoring Agency (BPOM). The agency had found several brands of beef jerky that contained pork. One of the brands, Lezaat Beef Jerky, has a halal label on it, certified by the Indonesian Ulemas Council (MUI). For Indonesian Muslims this news is unsettling because how can they now be sure their food is halal when even MUI-certification is no guarantee?
But, there was good news for press freedom. The Supreme Court dropped a lower court ruling which had obliged Time magazine to compensate the family of the late former president Soeharto's to the tune of US$106 million. In its May 1999 edition, the magazine had reported the Soeharto's family had stolen $15
billion from Indonesia's coffers during his 32-year rein. Soeharto had insisted that had not a single cent in his bank account. (Of course, no bank would allow their customers to have only one cent in an account).
At least until Thursday - when the Golkar Party is expected to nominate its vice presidential candidate - Vice President Jusuf Kalla may not be getting much sleep. Kalla, who is also the Golkar Party chairman, not only has to swallow his own words to contest the July presidential election, but his own party may even abandon him and nominate another party member to become President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's partner - of course with the approval of Yudhoyono -- in the July presidential election.
Before the April 9 legislative election, it seemed that the vice presidential position for another five-year term was guaranteed for Kalla. Yudhoyono reportedly felt offended at Kalla's determination to abandon him. Now the President has a much higher bargaining position than any potential rivals. Yudhoyono is now able to set up strict terms and conditions for other political parties wanting to join his winning wagon.
During the legislative election campaign, Kalla seemed very confident that his party, Golkar, could beat Yudhoyono's Democratic Party (PD). In his TV ads, while rolling his sleeves, the Golkar chairman had boasted, "the faster, the better," which meant that if the party won, he would make the country's
development faster and more effictive.
Those around him apparently succeeded in - wrongly – convincing Kalla that he was close to the presidential seat. Kalla and his party have clearly been overconfident. Preliminary results and quick counts show that Yudhoyono will likely be unbeatable in the July presidential election.
But it does not mean that Kalla's political career will be finished. Just few months after winning the presidential and vice presidential election, in December 2004 Kalla could easily knock out Akbar Tandjung in the party chairmanship race. Who knows - he could use the same recipe this week: A combination of money and power. But Kalla needs to be careful, because Akbar apparently wants to try his last fortune this week in regaining the Golkar post.
We do hope that in the July 8 presidential election, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP-P) will keep its plan to send its boss Megawati Soekarnoputri - or somebody else - to challenge Yudhoyono. For the sake of democracy, there shouldn't be a one-man show in the election. If Megawati fails, and if Kalla is no longer Yudhoyono's running mate, they will join the club of the losers from the legislative elections.
Thousands of failed candidates reportedly are suffering mentally because of the results. Then Megawati and Kalla could prove their leadership among the losers. Win or lose, it is all still just a game - and not one to be taken too seriously.
It is also a possibility that the losers (parties or legislative candidates) in the legislative election may not accept their defeat because they believe it was the chaotic mismanagement of the General Elections Commission (KPU) that should be held responsible for their misery. The Constitutional Court will soon be flooded with complaints from various parties. Is it possible that violence and riots will mark the protests of the losers and those who lost their constitutional rights to elect and to be elected? Remembering that the contestants have spent much of their energy and resources on their campaigns, they will not
likely be able to finance street protests or violence.
- Kornelius Purba
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South China Morning Post
April 18, 2009
Megawati Sukarnoputri may team up with her Suharto-era enemies in a bid for power, writes Fabio Scarpello
In 1998, when Indonesian strongman Suharto was forced to step down by a wave of street protests, few would have predicted that Megawati Sukarnoputri, one of the leaders of the reform movement, would 11 years later seek power in a coalition with former senior members of that same regime.
But a lot of water has passed under the bridge since then, and the trajectory of this "reluctant" politician has been such that analysts believe that the seemingly unlikely coalition is actually logical.
Tommi Legowo, an activist from the Forum of Citizens Concerned about the Indonesian Legislature said: "sadly, in politics, there are no friends or enemies but only interests. And this trio have the common goal of beating [President Susilo Bambang] Yudhoyono."
Besides former president Ms Megawati, the trio is made up of Wiranto, the leader of the Hanura party, and Prabowo Subianto, who heads Gerindra.
During the last days of the Suharto regime, while Ms Megawati was calling for democratic reforms, Wiranto was the head of the military, which kept Suharto in power, while Prabowo, Suharto's son-in-law, was the head of the special forces unit. Both politicians' military careers have been tarnished by accusations
of human rights abuses and reciprocal animosity. Wiranto still faces criminal charges.
The three are now likely to join forces in an attempt to thwart Dr Susilo re-election bid in the July presidential vote. Ms Megawati is expected to be the opposing presidential candidate, while the two former generals are still jostling for a position.
The possibility of a coalition was announced last weekend by the chairman of the advisory board of Ms Megawati's Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), Taufik Kiemas, also her husband.
The announcement followed the April 9 parliamentary election that saw Dr Susilo's Democratic Party win by a large margin, according to early results. Estimates say that his party secured more than 20 per cent of the vote, while Ms Megawati's PDI-P trailed third with 14.5 per cent. Gerindra and Hanura followed
in eighth and ninth place.
So what do the three unlikely bedfellows have in common?
"Political coalitions are always about power and the strengthening of this power, and they tend not to enter the reign of ideology," said Jacqueline Hicks, a Jakarta-based political analyst. "But these three parties share some ideological traits, like the ideal of Indonesia as an immovable, unitary state."
To varying degrees, the three parties also share a political-economic view that favours the "little" people, like
farmers and fishermen, and limits foreign ownership of Indonesian assets.
Ms Megawati ascended to the presidency in 2001 after the impeachment of her predecessor, Abdurrahman Wahid.
But if as opposition leader Ms Megawati was seen as being on the side of the poor, pro-democracy and pro-human rights, as president, she disappointed by leading no specific anti-poverty drive, expressing uneasiness with public votes in parliament and doing nothing to curb corruption. She was also accused of being aloof and out of touch, and she eventually failed to be re-elected, losing against Dr Susilo in 2004.
According to some experts, however, her biggest blunder was in her relationship with the military.
Observers largely agree that military reform stagnated and eventually regressed during her term. Marcus Mietzner, the leading expert on the military, said: "Megawati's strategic concessions to the [military] coincided with significant shifts in the ideological and political disposition of large segments of the civilian elite from the second half of 2001 onward."
In his book The Politics of Military Reform in Post-Suharto Indonesia: Elite Conflict, Nationalism, and Institutional Resistance, Dr Mietzner did not dispute that Ms Megawati snuggled up to the military for her own political advantage, but he stressed that this was partly due to "the remarkable renaissance of nationalist-conservative sentiments in the country", which strengthened the military's status.
This development was aided by the widespread sectarian conflicts that erupted in the archipelago - the growing call for independence in Aceh and Papua and the American-led "war on terror" that followed the September 11 attacks.
Although during Ms Megawati's last few days in office when parliament passed a law that greatly diminished the institutionalised political reach of the military, some of the president's supporters said that her leadership had disappointed.
Adnan Tripradipta, a Jakarta-based consultant, said that it often seemed like "some of her decisions are actually made by her husband, Taufik Kiemas", a view shared by many in Indonesia.
Mr Taufik is Ms Megawati's third husband. The first, Lieutenant Surindo Supjarso, was killed in a plane crash in 1970. Her second marriage, to Hassan Gamal Ahmad Hasan, an Egyptian diplomat, was annulled shortly after it was officiated in 1972.
Indra Samego, a political analyst from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences, said Ms Megawati's problem might be a result of mismatched expectations. People expected a lot from her, but she was just not able relate to them. "She never considered herself one of the people. She always considered herself superior, and this kind of mentality hurts democracy," he said.
Ms Megawati, in fact, has always seen herself as the nation's reluctant saviour, rather than someone who needs to vie for the approval of the people.
As the daughter of former president Sukarno, she grew up in luxury in the Merdeka Palace, far from the poverty that afflicted large swathes of her country. She dropped out of university twice and never held a proper job outside politics. She was propelled into the political limelight almost by default when she was 40 and those opposing Suharto thought that her father's legacy would draw crowds.
That was in 1987, and until then she had enjoyed a quiet, married life, tending to her three children and her garden.
But the opposition was galvanised when she came on board and Ms Megawati soon became a symbol of popular resistance.
Her status grew in 1996, when Suharto tried to remove her as the leader of her party.
The standoff came to a head on July 27 of the same year, when the military attacked the party's headquarters to eject the occupiers. The attack left five dead, 23 missing and 149 more injured.
This event was widely seen as marking the beginning of the end of power for Suharto, with the level of protests against his iron-fisted rule growing exponentially.
After his fall in May 1998, Ms Megawati took part in the 1999 parliamentary elections, the first free elections held. PDI-P came first, gaining a whopping 33 per cent of the vote. She was obviously the Indonesian people's choice for the presidency, but parliament, which elected the nation's presidents until the 2004
poll, favoured Mr Wahid, and Ms Megawati consequently became his vice-president.
When she eventually replaced Mr Wahid, she became the country's first female president and the first Indonesian leader born since independence from the Dutch.
In 2004, before she lost the election to Dr Susilo, she was ranked No 8 on Forbes Magazine's list of the World's 100 Most Powerful Women. By last year, she had fallen off the list. Experts believe she will struggle to be included again.
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The Thinker: SBY Needs to Wipe Slate Clean for Poll
The Jakarta Globe
Monday, April 20, 2009
Taufik Darusman
If incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono had his way, he would probably prefer to run on his own without a vice presidential candidate in the July 8 election. It would be so much neater.
Just as the opinion polls showed the Democratic Party leading in the run-up to the legislative elections, the latest polls show that Yudhoyono is likely to emerge the winner for a second and final term in the July presidential election, regardless of who he chooses as a running mate.
But still, the current national political agenda is revolving around Yudhoyono’s choice of running mate and whether the Golkar Party will continue to press ahead with Jusuf Kalla, the current vice president and party boss, as its presidential candidate.
On Thursday, Golkar’s top brass will convene to decide also on whether to throw their weight behind the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, or PDI-P. Or, perhaps, find an alternative Golkar person to run as Yudhoyono’s vice presidential candidate.
The options demonstrate just how out of touch Golkar’s leadership is with reality.
First, Kalla’s salability is so low he will never make it to the top office in the nation, no matter who his running mate is. In any case, Kalla first has to attain the threshold of 20 percent of House seats or 25 percent of the popular vote in the legislative elections by forming a coalition with other parties. That process alone is so exhaustive it would render Golkar ineffective come the presidential election.
Second, a coalition with the PDI-P to beat Yudhoyono in the presidential race leaves open the question of who will be the presidential candidate: PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Sukarnoputri or Kalla?
Meanwhile, Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party has already made what is practically tantamount to an order to Golkar to forget about nominating Kalla.
After stating it would entertain Golkar’s proposal for a vice presidential candidate only if it contained more than one name, the Democratic Party added another qualifier: the candidate must not be the chairman of a party, which Kalla is.
Incredibly enough, despite the two qualifiers that seem to rule out Kalla, Golkar has still failed to get the message. The party’s leadership is either in an incorrigible state of denial or is playing a political game involving the different party factions that have a stake in the final outcome.
The people behind Kalla’s presidential candidacy expect to see funds flowing incessantly into his campaign war chest. Some of them will manage their personal agendas and benefit whether or not Kalla wins.
At the other end of the equation are those who wish to see a second term of Yudhoyono-Kalla, as this would mean cabinet ministers from Golkar would likely keep their seats.
Amid this ongoing public discourse — which should be wrapped up by the last week of the month, when Yudhoyono is to announce his choice of vice president — few have attempted to guess what Yudhoyono now thinks of Kalla.
Kalla, during campaigning for the legislative elections, not only decided to part ways with Yudhoyono and make it on his own, he also came up with a campaign mantra claiming he could do things better and faster than the current administration. Now, if that is not a poorly-veiled shot at Yudhoyono’s leadership, one wonders what is.
Yudhoyono is a proud Javanese and a retired three-star Army general; it is simply politically unwise to take potshots at this sort of person. By the same token, the very same qualities make Yudhoyono act graciously and tactically toward Kalla: he has put his vice president at a safe distance, allowing him to retain or dispose of Kalla at his discretion.
On balance, Kalla has been an asset to Yudhoyono; he was a man of action, a counterpoint to the president, the man of discreet caution. It was Kalla’s decision to engage in multitasking by managing both the office of the vice president and a political party beset with different factions that ultimately did him in.
As Yudhoyono is now set to lead the country for a second and final term, he has before him a rare opportunity to shape the nation’s path on his own terms. He will be better placed to so if he does it with a clean slate, together with professional, loyal and dedicated people devoid of political, business and sectarian interests.
Taufik Darusman is a Jakarta-based veteran journalist.
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Tempo Magazine
No. 34/IX
April 21-27, 2009
Editorial
THE victory of the Democrat Party in the recent legislative election has changed the political constellation and configuration in Indonesia—at least for the next five years. The Democrat Party, which was “bottom of the class” in the 2004 elections, has unequivocally defeated two of its preceding parties by a convincing margin. This implies a shift of perceptions on the nation’s power play.
The assumption is that the Democrat vote was boosted by, among other factors, voters switching from other parties such as Golkar and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP). These parties are mentioned because it is difficult to prove that people have jumped the “ideological” fence from, for
example, Islamic to non-Islamic parties. This postulation could well be true, until a careful and comprehensive research proves otherwise.
No less important in this hypothesis are the young voters, who seem to have been ignored by polling organizations in their surveys. According to data from the General Elections Commission (KPU), 30 percent of the 174 million people on the electoral list of the legislative elections were firsttime voters, meaning
52 million people. This number cannot be dismissed lightly.
In other words, the Democrat Party’s voters are not traditional voters who voted for experienced or ‘historical’ parties. These two words no longer seem to be selling points or trademarks, particularly given our mostly unhappy experience, and our erratic history.
The ball is now in the court of the Democrats—or to be exact, with Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. We have one complaint: Indonesian politics are determined more by individuals than institutions, by personalities rather than organizations. What is wrong with that? That has been the case since the days of the
preindependence Budi Oetomo organization, and still holds true today! This is the reality of politics in this nation. It is rather tragic, but the world cannot be changed overnight.
With all its flaws, the recent legislative election should provide for us a valuable lesson for the presidential elections, which is only a few months away. The most urgent business is the nomination of candidates and their running mates, and here once again, the ability of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono to act quickly and efficiently will be tested.
In the recent legislative election, the Democrats were attacked
by their opponents using the biting slogan “Better, Faster.”
Everyone knows that this was directed at SBY’s style of
leadership, which, bluntly speaking, implied he tended to act
“slow but sure.” Now, however, assuming that he has garnered
more than 20 percent of the vote, SBY would be foolish to
continue moving so cautiously.
Therefore, now is the time for SBY to proclaim a slogan that conveys the message, “More Assertive, More Confident.” The coalition, no matter which parties are involved, should be based on institutional and pragmatic perspectives, not on personalities and strategies, particularly since the presidential election is very different from the legislative election: voters must choose individuals, not parties.
Of course there is the worry that a president who is too strong, from the party with a majority in the House of Representatives (DPR), will lead to power that is difficult to control. This concern can be allayed by the almost complete formation of a “rainbow coalition” around the PDIP and Megawati Soekarnoputri. Whatever form it takes, we hope this coalition of uncertain commonality and vision will maintain a highly critical stance.
Conversely, could SBY be thinking about embracing all parties and groups to prevent the DPR from becoming an inconvenient “irritant”? This possibility is also not a cause for concern. The last five years have shown that coalitions with the majority parties in the DPR provided no guarantee for a ‘troublefree’ tenure.
Whoever becomes SBY’s running mate depends almost entirely on SBY, given the inconsistency and constantly changing preconditions of the Golkar Party. Working with parties out of power is not really Golkar’s way. The party, which grew from a position of power, would find it very difficult to become an opposition party. Times have changed, and new voters are looking to the future. Determined to be “More Assertive, More Confident” Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono should be on a more solid footing on his way to the presidential election.
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Prabowo strengthening his bases
The Straits Times (Singapore)
April 18, 2009
Leslie Lopez, Senior Regional Correspondent
Retired general Prabowo Subianto, former special forces chief and now leader of the up-and-coming Gerindra party, talks to The Straits Times in an exclusive interview on why his is a party to be reckoned with.
JAKARTA: Looking tanned after a hectic campaign criss-crossing Indonesia during the just concluded parliamentary elections, retired general Prabowo Subianto is hardly taking a break.
If anything, he is on another campaign.
This past week, the former chief of special forces, or Kopassus, and one of Indonesia's most controversial figures has set aside differences with key political foes.
The reason? He wants to sew an alliance against alleged irregularities in the parliamentary elections.
Among others, the blunt-talking former general has held meetings with his former military boss General Wiranto, who allegedly masterminded a campaign that led to his unceremonious discharge from the military in 1998.
He has also met Ms Megawati Sukarnoputri, whose father was responsible for pushing his parents into exile in the 1950s.
'Massive cheating was carried out and we want to do something about it,' said Mr Prabowo in an interview at his Jakarta office this week, a rare occasion as he is reticent with the international media.
But many analysts say that there is more to the high-profile huddles of the past few days - Mr Prabowo is calculating his chances at a bid for the Indonesian presidency.
To be sure, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono - who wants a second term in office - remains the hot favourite in the July presidential elections.
And there is growing speculation that Ms Megawati, who lost the presidency to Dr Yudhoyono in 2004, does not want to make another bid for the top job.
She is said to be considering throwing her Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle's (PDI-P) backing behind Mr Prabowo. And analysts say Mr Prabowo counts among a handful of candidates who are highly recognised and may be capable of challenging the incumbent.
Privately, close aides of Dr Yudhoyono acknowledge that a Prabowo-led coalition with the backing of the PDI-P party and other forces opposed to the President could pose a serious threat to his re-election plans.
'Prabowo is hungry enough and he has the financial resources and a political network in the military to cause serious headaches for Yudhoyono,' said one Indonesian businessman close to Dr Yudhoyono.
On his part, Mr Prabowo is keeping his options open. 'Everything is very fluid and very dynamic. Talks are ongoing and all possibilities are there,' he said.
Results of last week's national parliamentary election will only be released later this month. But reliable quick-count surveys show that Dr Yudhoyono's Democratic Party has secured a comfortable lead with roughly 20 per cent of the total votes, ahead of its two nearest rivals - Ms Megawati's PDI-P and Golkar, the country's oldest political organisation, which received roughly 15 per cent and 13.5 per cent of the sample
vote respectively.
Mr Prabowo's Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) managed to win just over 5 per cent of the sample votes. It is a creditable showing for a one-year-old party, but well below the near double-digit figure party officials were predicting.
'We are getting reports that a lot of our members were not allowed to vote because their names were not on the voters' lists. The real situation is that we would be closer to 10 per cent than the 5 per cent,' said Mr Prabowo.
But the former military leader is far from dejected.
The 58-year-old politician said that his party's position is likely to be enhanced in the coming weeks as more than a dozen parties which secured under 2 per cent of the popular votes will likely be absorbed into Gerindra. The party has run a slick and well-financed campaign funded by Mr Prabowo's billionaire brother Hasyim Djojohadikusumo.
Mr Prabowo will need all the support he can get because Indonesian laws stipulate that candidates vying for Indonesia's top job must secure the backing of a party or a coalition that enjoys at least 20 per cent of the seats in the legislative assembly, widely referred to as DPR, or 25 per cent of the popular vote.
Both Mr Prabowo and Dr Yudhoyono were contemporaries in the military and entered the academy at around the same time. They became three-star generals within a month of each other.
But unlike Dr Yudhoyono, who received desk jobs and provincial commands that were typical postings for officers, Mr Prabowo was often in the thick of combat. His assignments contributed to his reputation as the enforcer of a brutal regime during the rule of the late president Suharto.
Mr Prabowo, who evokes strong feelings among Indonesians, comes from a prominent Indonesian family. His father, respected economist Sumitro Djojohadikusumo, was forced out of Indonesia by the country's founding president Sukarno in 1958 in what would become a 10-year exile.
Shortly after returning, the young Prabowo enrolled in the military and in the early 1980s, married the late Suharto's second daughter. He quickly moved up the military ranks, and was made a three-star general in early 1998 when he was promoted to head the army's key strategic reserve, better known as Kostrad.
But Mr Prabowo's world would quickly collapse soon after the financial turmoil in 1998 triggered bloody demonstrations that ultimately ejected Suharto from power.
Amid the worsening crisis, Mr Prabowo fell out with his military commander at the time, Gen Wiranto. He found himself fending off accusations that he was the principal player behind the mayhem that swept Jakarta in a bid to wrest power in a still-born coup attempt.
Three months later, Mr Prabowo was sacked after a tribunal found that troops under his command kidnapped pro-democracy students.
Mr Prabowo, who has repeatedly denied the accusations hurled at him, said that efforts to quash these lingering perceptions have been frustrating.
'In every succession struggle, there are always people who are eliminated from the scene. That elimination could be physical or it could be elimination through destroying their character and reputation and this is part of politics,' he said.
He added: 'In 1998, I commanded 34 battalions but I didn't carry out a coup d'etat. That is a fact.'
Still, the fallout from the dark days of 1998 lingers. For example, he cannot obtain a visa to visit the US. 'I am puzzled because I consider myself to be friendly to the United States,' he said.
But he adds that he does not see it as a major stumbling block to his political ambitions. 'In some parts of the world, it only adds to your popularity and credibility. For me the most important thing is Indonesian national interest.'
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Aceh Party’s Victory Offers Hope, Concern
The Jakarta Post
April 18, 2009
Hotli Simanjuntak
BANDA ACEH
Former separatist combatants have managed to transform the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) into a major local political force after last week's legislative elections.
Early official results of election vote counts show that the Aceh Party (PA), established by former rebels, secured a majority of votes in the country's westernmost province.
As of Friday afternoon, the vote tabulation center of Aceh’s Independent Election Commission (KIP) recorded that the party has secured 37.68 percent of votes for the party, enough to allow it to dominate the Aceh legislative council.
The PA's win in Aceh had been forecast much earlier.
During the campaign period, the party’s red flags and other symbols were highly visible across the province, even in remote villages. The party was the only contestant that staged campaign rallies in all of Aceh’s regencies.
Humam Hamid, a sociologist from the Syiah Kuala University in Banda Aceh, said the PA’s victory had nothing to do with primordialism. "Other local parties only secured a small amount of votes. They were even beaten by national parties like the Democratic Party and the Golkar Party.”
Aceh is the only province allowed under election law to have local parties contest for legislative seats in the province. There are five other local parties in Aceh aside from the PA — the People’s Aceh Party (PRA), the Acehnese People’s Independent Aspiration Party (SIRA), the United Aceh Party, the Aceh Sovereignty Party (PDA) and the Safe and Prosperous Aceh Party (PAAS).
Humam said that the PA's victory was the logical consequence of GAM’s three-decade fight against oppressions in Aceh, and added that it was backed by loyal and well-organized supporters.
”I simply followed the trend. In the past we had voted for national parties for years, but nothing changing here. This time I vote for the PA and I will see how they are going to manage our trust,” Mahdi, a resident of Seuneubok Punti village in East Aceh, told The Jakarta Post.
Another villager, who wished to remain anonymous, said he voted for the PA because he was afraid that peace would be ruined if the party lost the election. ”It’s like having a naughty son. I simply give him what he wants and expect that he will not be naughty anymore.”
Some Acehnese, especially those who were not affected by the brutal military operations, have expressed concerns that the PA's victory could allow it to use an "intimidation approach" to serve its political interests.
Party Spokesman Adnan Beuransyah rejected this concern. "Our internal evaluation found that former combatants can mingle very well with other community members,” he said. About 30 percent of the party’s legislative candidates are former combatants.
Humam said there should not be suspicion of the PA. "We should give them the opportunity to prove themselves to Acehnese people.”
Acehnese political observer Saifudin Bantasyam warned of high political tensions between the PA and the central government if the latter breaks its promise to implement all points in the Helsinki peace agreement, which gives full authority to the Aceh administration to manage its natural resources.
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Economist Intelligence Unit - Business Asia
April 21, 2009
The ruling Democratic Party looks to have increased its share of seats in the Indonesian parliament, but President Yudhoyono’s reform hopes have not improved greatly
Exit polls from the April 9th parliamentary elections suggest that Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Indonesia’s president, has enjoyed mixed fortunes. Mr Yudhoyono’s party, the Democratic Party (PD), has done much better than at the last elections in 2004 and may be able on its own to nominate him as a candidate in the presidential election due in July. But the PD has not done as well as recent opinion polls suggested. If Mr Yudhoyono goes on to win the presidential election, he will have to manage another unwieldy coalition, limiting his scope for economic reform.
Some 560 seats in the House of People’s Representatives (DPR, the legislature) were up for grabs in the April 9th elections, along with 132 seats in the less powerful Regional Representatives’ Council (DPD). Elections were also held for almost 2,000 provincial-assembly seats and over 15,000 local-government positions. The DPR seats are the most important for the national balance of power, and exit polls by several
local survey organisations indicate that the PD will become the largest party in the DPR with about 20% of the national vote.
Mr Yudhoyono’s party is ahead of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and Golkar, which are estimated to have won around 14% of the vote each. Next are four Islamic-oriented parties, each of which has provisionally garnered at least 5% of the votes. Two parties headed by former military strongmen from the Suharto era also look to have passed the threshold of 2.5% of the national vote required to enter parliament. Another 29 parties, which together have won an estimated 18% of the vote, have probably failed to reach this threshold. If the final official results match the pollsters’ quick counts relatively closely, these parties will not be taking seats in the DPR. The national election commission, KPU, is showing a preliminary
tally of votes that is broadly consistent with the exit polls.
Slight disappointment for the PD
Despite the dramatic change in the fortunes of the PD since the legislative elections in 2004, when it won just 7.5% of the vote, Mr Yudhoyono will take little pleasure in his party’s performance. The PD had enjoyed support of around 27% in opinion polls just prior to election day, apparently riding high on the back of the president’s popularity. A similar showing in the election itself would have left Mr Yudhoyono in a strong
position to build the coalition of his choice. Unless the official result unexpectedly boosts the PD’s share of the vote, governance will be more complicated than Mr Yudhoyono would have hoped.
Indeed, the president is likely to face many of the same problems he encountered during his first term, which was characterised by a constant need to make concessions to coalition partners. One of the earliest concessions was giving the role of vice-president to Jusuf Kalla, now chairman of Golkar. Mr Yudhoyono also chose to assign important positions in his cabinet to members of coalition parties, in the hope this
would make them more supportive of his reform agenda. In the end this strategy probably paid dividends, both in terms of holding the government together, something that had proven difficult for Mr Yudhoyono’s predecessors in the post-Suharto era, and in allowing important pro-investment legislation to be passed. But
progress was slow and came at a heavy price, as Mr Yudhoyono was constantly frustrated by the need to pander to anti-reform members of parliament, particularly those from within Golkar’s ranks.
Had the PD done better in the April 9th legislative elections, Mr Yudhoyono would be in a position more easily to dispense with Golkar’s support. He would also be in a position to choose a vice-presidential running mate who could promote his reform agenda, such as the finance minister and co-ordinating minister for the economy, Sri Mulyani Indrawati. A technocrat without party backing, Ms Mulyani has shown the progress that can be made by a genuinely reform-minded minister. Instead, despite the PD probably having secured the 20% of seats that it needs to nominate its own presidential candidate, Mr Yudhoyono is likely to be forced into early bartering with other parties.
Anatomy of a coalition
Where might Mr Yudhoyono’s coalition allies come from? Not from the PDI-P, for starters. Its leader, Megawati Soekarnoputri, the daughter of Indonesia’s first leader, Soekarno, is unwilling to work with the PD. Prabowo Subianto and Wiranto, two former generals with chequered human-rights records who head the small Gerindra and Hanura parties, respectively, share Ms Megawati’s nationalist outlook and her dislike of Mr Yudhoyono. This leaves only the Islamic parties and Golkar as potential coalition partners. Collectively, the Islamic parties have probably seen their share of the vote diminish since 2004, partly as a result of the PD’s success in portraying itself as the party against corruption and in favour of reform, thus crowding out other parties that fought on a similar platform. The Islamic parties have also suffered from a trend among Indonesians to increasingly separate their religious lives from their political leanings. If Mr Yudhoyono secured the backing of all the Islamic parties, he might just have enough seats to form a majority government, but in his first administration these parties could not always be depended on for support; the United Development Party (PPP), for example, often crossed over into opposition.
Mr Yudhoyono may then once again look to Golkar to ensure a robust coalition. If the quick counts are accurate, the combined share of the vote for the PD and Golkar would be about 35%, up from 29% in 2004. But an alliance with Golkar would pose several problems. In addition to its resistance to reform, Golkar
appears set on nominating Mr Kalla for a presidential run. This would prevent Mr Yudhoyono from securing the party’s backing until after the presidential elections. Meanwhile, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), with around 8% of the national vote, has warned that it will not enter a coalition with Golkar, which it sees as an opponent to reform. The PKS won 7.3% of the vote in 2004, and looks to be the only Islamic party to have
improved its position.
In short, barring a stunning piece of negotiation, Mr Yudhoyono will once again be in charge of a very messy coalition during his second term (assuming he does indeed win the presidency). He may need to select a figure from a different party as his vice-presidential running mate, in exchange for that party’s support. He is also unlikely to scrap his policy of doling out cabinet positions to members of different parties within the coalition. He may even need to seek support from different parties for each piece of new legislation: for example, looking to the Islamic parties when he wants to make changes to the legal system or introduce measures to fight corruption; and to Golkar when it comes to deregulation. The chances of reforming the country’s restrictive labour laws, which keep many Indonesians out of employment, look extremely low. Added to Mr Yudhoyono’s woes will be an economic recession, as the global crisis finally catches up with Indonesia at some point in 2009.
When he won the presidency in 2004, Mr Yudhoyono took over a country dealing with Islamic terrorism, separatist violence, a fragile democratic record and a military still very much involved in political and economic life. Five years on, these problems have largely faded into the background. If he wins a second term in July (or in a run-off vote in September), the challenges facing his government will be quite different but just as difficult to overcome. Worse, he won’t be getting any greater support than before from the men and women in parliament.
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An Insiders Look At Golkars Ups And Downs
The Jakarta Post
Sunday, April 19, 2009
Imanuddin Razak
One of the key indicators of a significant political party is its ability to not only to survive turbulent periods, but to also remain strong and influential in a tough political arena.
That’s exactly what the Golkar Party has done. Stigmatized for being the spoilt rulers party after more than 30 years of association with the then ruling New Order government, before its downfall in 1998 it still managed to remain in the top two of the 1999 general elections and struck back to win the 2004 general elections.
Golkars success in maintaining its supremacy in Indonesian politics one way or another cannot be separated from the leadership of its chairmen. Politik Komunikasi Partai Golkar di Tiga Era (Communication Politics of Golkar Party under Three Different Leaderships) by Rully Chairul Azwar, Golkars deputy
secretary-general, basically discusses the different leadership styles of three Golkar chairmen Harmoko, Akbar Tandjung and Jusuf Kalla.
The book presents in detail the strategies and maneuvers taken by Harmoko and Akbar Tandjung, in their attempts to maintain Golkars supremacy in Indonesian politics.
Harmoko was the first civilian chairman of Golkar. It had previously been led by chairmen with a military background since its establishment in 1964. He was also the last Golkar chairman under the era of the New Order government.
It was during Harmokos leadership (1993-1998) that Golkar was popular with its controversial programs Temu Kader (Party Cadres meeting) and Safari Ramadhan (Ramadan Safari) to consolidate party members and supporters. It was also during his leadership that Golkar was introduced to modern political party management, and began using surveys to determine the partys popularity among Indonesians.
However, despite Harmokos relentless tours across the country, Golkar performed poorly in the 1999 general elections, coming second after the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), as it secured only 24 percent of overall votes, far from the partys achievement in the 1992 elections of some 74 percent.
It was obvious Indonesian voters had become bored with Golkar. Another factor was most likely that two out of its three most prominent elements the armed forces (Abri) and the bureaucracy (Civil servants) which were previously the loyal supporters of Golkar, had been removed from the partys membership in 1998, immediately after the downfall of Soeharto its chief patron and the New Order government.
Akbar Tandjung, who was Golkar chairman from 1998-2004, came at the most difficult time, as he could only rely on the third element in Golkar the functional group in his attempt to restore Golkars supremacy in Indonesian politics after Soehartos and the New Orders downfalls.
Similarly, Akbar frequently toured the archipelago to consolidate the party, winning him a sweet farewell at the end of his leadership when Golkar took back the crown from the PDI-P in the 2004 general elections.
Rully Chairul Azwar, however, does not provide ample evidence of Akbars successor Jusuf Kallas (2004-now) maneuvers in at least maintaining Golkars 2004 victory, as this book, which was based on the writers thesis in 2008, was only published days before the April 9 legislative election.
He only mentioned that Kalla, as the countrys Vice President, did not have the luxury of time to consolidate Golkar Party members and supporters, unlike previous party chairmen.
In sum, the book is completely based on the thesis the writer prepared for his masters degree. While the book is academically and scientifically acceptable, it would be more interesting if the writer inserted more quotes or details of policies taken by the three subsequent leaders during their leadership, rather
than merely quoting statements or opinions of experts or other writers.
As a member of the partys executive board under all three Golkar leaders, he should have had intimate knowledge of the partys machinations.
But, overall, the book is valuable in providing an analysis of Indonesian politics. Thats why we need more party insiders, like Rully Chairul Azwar, to write about and enrich our political literature.
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Analysis-Indonesia's Golkar Bruised But Not Out After Polls
* Golkar still seen exerting influence on pace of reform
* Markets rally on prospect of of Yudhoyono second term
* Slump in support leads to deep rifts in Golkar
* Meeting on Thursday for coalition, strategy talks
By Ed Davies
JAKARTA, April 20 (Reuters) - Indonesia's Golkar Party, which did poorly in this month's elections after dominating politics for decades, is still likely to exert influence over the country's pace of reform, investment appeal and growth prospects.
Golkar never lost an election during autocratic ex-President Suharto's three decades in power.
But the fact it won just 14 percent of the votes in the parliamentary election means it now has limited options other than to seek to join President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's coalition or else risk political oblivion.
Golkar leaders will meet on Thursday to decide on their strategy. Analysts expect the horse-trading between the various parties to continue right up to the May 16 deadline for registering candidates for the presidential election in July, which Yudhoyono is tipped to win.
Support for Golkar has traditionally come from Suharto-era entrenched business interests and the inefficient bureaucracy, which means it has little interest in cleaning up either area.
So if Golkar joins Yudhoyono's coalition, even as a less important partner, it could hamper Yudhoyono's efforts to overhaul the civil service, judiciary and police, much as it did during his first term.
Yudhoyono has already indicated that he may not necessarily include Golkar or its leader Jusuf Kalla, who is currently his vice president, in his coalition.
"The president and the vice president have to be on the same boat," Yudhoyono told reporters on Sunday, hinting at his frustration with Kalla's bid to set the agenda in his first term.
"The ship's captain is the president and the vice president helps out the captain."
Yudhoyono's chances of pushing ahead with his reform programme are better without Golkar, some analysts said, provided he still has a cohesive coalition with a few small parties.
Indonesian financial markets have rallied on the prospect that Yudhoyono, a reform-minded former general, will be able to continue market-friendly policies in Southeast Asia's biggest economy.
The rupiah has gained 5 percent on the dollar and stocks are up about 12 percent since the election.
However, if Golkar is excluded from Yudhoyono's coalition, it could ally with former President Megawati Sukarnoputri's PDI-P to form a powerful opposition block, or even disintegrate amid internal rifts over its leadership and strategy.
"Golkar is in deep division," said political analyst Kevin Evans of Pemilu Asia, which collects data on elections. "The idea of not being in the ministerial Volvos will be a little bit difficult for them to take."
YUDHOYONO PRESIDENTIAL FAVOURITE
Golkar, which held power for 33 out of the last 38 years and is the dominant party in the current government, has clearly been caught by surprise with the further slide in its support.
Yudhoyono's Democrat Party, a centrist, secular party, tripled its vote in the April 9 poll to about a fifth of the ballots cast, based on early counts, making it the strongest party in terms of forming a viable coalition.
As Suharto's political machine, Golkar usually won more than 70 percent of the vote. That fell to just over 20 percent in 2004, when it was still the biggest party, and to 14 percent now.
That puts it in a much weaker position in coalition talks. Some analysts predict it will seek to join the Democrats and field a vice presidential candidate as Yudhoyono's running mate, rather than running against Yudhoyono by fielding its own presidential candidate.
Kalla said back in February that he was considering running against Yudhoyono. But the plunge in Golkar's support and his own poor performance in opinion polls now make that look unlikely.
A poll released last week by the Indonesian Survey Institute, or LSI, showed that in a three-way presidential race Yudhoyono would win 59.8 percent, Megawati 18.9 percent, and Kalla 7.7 percent.
Other potential Golkar candidates for the presidency, including media magnate Surya Paloh and the Sultan of Yogyakarta, also appear to have a negligible chance of beating Yudhoyono.
GOLKAR STILL HAS ROLE
That said, and despite the party infighting, some analysts say Golkar could still play a role again in the next government.
Anies Baswedan, a political analyst and rector of Paramadina University, said Kalla's capacity to manage the government and his economic experience at a time of global crisis make him a valuable running mate for Yudhoyono.
Alternatively, Yudhoyono, who is often known by his initials SBY, may pick another Golkar politician such as its former chairman, Akbar Tandjung, or the Sultan of Yogyakarta, Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X, to be his vice president.
"SBY cannot escape the importance of Golkar in the parliament," said political analyst Umar Juoro. (Additional reporting by Telly Nathalia, Muklis Ali and Sunanda Creagh; Editing by Sara Webb and Alex Richardson)
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The Jakarta Post
April 17, 2009
Editorial
It is a rude awakening in politics: Those who voted in the April 9 legislative elections may now find their favorite parties seeking alliances with partners who are not to their liking.
But, coalitions are nothing new to elections. Nor, as Lord Palmerston once said, is there such a thing as an eternal ally or a perpetual enemy in politics. Only interests are eternal and perpetual, the British statesman said. So, it follows that the enemies of one’s enemies are one’s friends.
This is what’s been happening in front of us this week. Those who voted for nationalist-secular parties such as PDI-P (the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle) may have felt their choices have been spoiled by looming coalitions with two ultra-nationalists clouded with past military abuses.
PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri is moving closer to retired army generals Prabowo Subianto and Wiranto, chairs to the newcomer Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) and the People’s Conscience Party (Hanura), respectively.
The generals were among some 20 party leaders and 10 public figures, including former president Abdurrahman “Gus Dur” Wahid, who met in the house of Megawati in Central Jakarta on Tuesday. At the meeting they had asked deadly question: Were the legislative elections legitimate? 10 million people had been robbed of their right to vote, they said, because among other reasons their names had not been on the electoral roll.
A score of rights activists present at the gathering threatened to file a civil lawsuit against the General Elections Commission (KPU) and the government, for what they perceived to have been the worst elections since 1999.
To be fair, Indonesia is one of the most complex places to conduct elections in the world, involving 171 million registered voters in 33 provinces and 471 regencies, and with 77 major election districts. The electoral roll has been one major headache for the KPU in the lead up to the elections.
On other end of the political spectrum, incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s secular Democrat Party (PD) is inviting potential partners including Islamic parties such as the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS). And judging from the results of the April 9 elections (where people voted overwhelmingly for
nationalist-secular parties), if this alliance clicks it could be disastrous for PD in the July presidential election. If PD forges an alliance with Islamic parties, more voters, including the minority non-Muslim voters, will abandon it.
This is one of the epithets of Indonesian politics, showing that the public is still inclined to choose a leader based on personality a notorious hangover from our feudal past. The other is an apparent absence of ideology.
The government is faced with an urgent problem on its doorstep. In the worst case scenario, some party leaders may refuse to sign the results of the legislative elections or demand repeat elections. Any delays would in turn cause further delays to the presidential election.
If this happens, God forbid, there will be a power vacuum when Yudhoyono’s presidential tenure expires in October and there would be no law to refer to in handling such a turn of events. As such, anything could happen.
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Military Supports Poll Results, Emphasizes Neutrality
The Jakarta Globe
Monday, April 20, 2009
Markus Junianto Sihaloho
Whatever the result of this month’s legislative elections, the military is determined to support the outcome despite defeated parties’ complaints over the early results, a military spokesman said on Sunday.
Air Vice Marshal Sagom Tamboen said military chief Gen. Djoko Santoso had reiterated this stance in a prepared speech of his that had been read out after the election by several commanders during monthly military flag-raising ceremonies.
“He has urged all soldiers to be ready to secure the comprehensive election result, whoever wins,” Sagom said.
He said the fact that President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party was the likely winner was of no relevance to the military as their aim was not to secure the interests of a certain party or political figure.
“Please do not think there has been bias caused by the quick count results, just because TNI has been well-prepared in managing the elections,” he said.
Quick counts showed the Democratic Party a clear winner with about 20 percent of the vote, while Megawati Sukarnoputri’s Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, or PDI-P, and Golkar each had about 14 percent, a significant decline from their 2004 showings.
Meanwhile, the commander of Diponegoro military command, Central Java Province, Maj. Gen. Haryadi Soetanto, on Sunday admitted that he had ordered some of his subordinates to check provisional voter list data ahead of July’s presidential election.
“I have given the order,” Haryadi said, adding that it was aimed at preventing soldiers from being accidentally listed.
In voter list data for the legislative elections, several names of soldiers were listed as voters even though soldiers are barred from participating in elections.
Quoted by state news agency Antara, Haryadi said such action did not break with the military’s commitment to political neutrality, which also bars soldiers from political activity.
Defending his actions, Sagom said: “Is it possible for a commander of a military command to borrow and check all local voter list data? That is impossible. So it was just aimed at preventing any soldiers from being listed as voters.”
Agustiani SF Tio, a member of the Elections Supervisory Board, or Bawaslu, said on Sunday it did not believe the military had violated the Election Law by confirming its support for the results of the legislative elections or checking provisional voter list data.
“As long as the military does not break the neutrality rule or the Election Law through its actions,” Agustiani said.
“If the General Elections Commission [KPU] did not follow legal procedures in stipulating the winner of the elections, then the military must not back it up,” she said.
However, Agustiani also reminded the military that it is far better for them to remain silent and to withhold from commenting on any election issues that may arise.
“People could misinterpret what the military says even though their intention is to keep the country secure,” she said.
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Susilo Could Get First Round Win in Indonesia
Angus Reid Global Monitor : Polls & Research
April 20, 2009
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) - Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is heavily favoured to earn a new term in office as Indonesia’s president, according to a poll by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI). 53 per cent of respondents would vote for Susilo in this year’s election.
Former president Megawati Sukarnoputri of the Struggling Indonesian Democratic Party (PDIP) is second with 17 per cent, followed by Prabowo Subianto of the Great Indonesia Movement Party (GIMP) with 10 per cent, current vice-president Jusuf Kalla of the Party of the Functional Groups (Golkar) with six per cent, Sri Sultan Hamengku Buwono X with three per cent and Wiranto of the People’s Conscience Party (Hanura) with two per cent.
Susilo—a security minister who ran as the candidate of the Democrat Party (PD)—won the September 2004 presidential election with 60.62 per cent of the vote in a run-off over incumbent Megawati. The vote marked the first time Indonesian voters picked their head of state through the ballot box.
Indonesia held a legislative election on Apr. 9. Preliminary results suggest that the PD will finish in first place, followed by either Golkar or the PDIP, and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS). Under existing guidelines, a party or coalition must win at least 20 per cent of the seats in the House or 25 per cent of
the popular vote in the legislative election in order to nominate a presidential candidate.
On Apr. 16, Kalla acknowledged that he will not attempt to become Golkar’s presidential contender, saying, "We have to form a coalition."
The presidential ballot will place on Jul. 8. If no presidential contender garners more than 50 per cent of the vote, a run-off will follow on Sept. 8.
Polling Data
Who would you vote for in the next presidential election?
Apr. 2009 Feb. 2009 Dec. 2008
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (PD) 53% 50% 43%
Megawati Sukarnoputri (PDIP) 17% 19% 19%
Prabowo Subianto (GIMP) 10% 4% 5%
Jusuf Kalla (Golkar) 6% 2% 2%
Sri Sultan Hamengku Buwono X 3% 4% 5%
Wiranto (Hanura) 2% 3% 3%
Hidayat Nur Wahid n.a. 2% 2%
Amien Rais (PAN) n.a. 1% 1%
Akbar Tandjung (Golkar) n.a. n.a. 1%
Source: Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 4,200 Indonesian voters, conducted on Apr. 9, 2009. Margin of error is 1.7 per cent.
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Tempo Magazine
No. 34/IX
April 21-27, 2009
In the lead-up to the elections, Papua was hit by terror. The OPM was accused of involvement, but its leaders behind bars deny it.
A FLEETING shadow made its way through the heavy rain in Jayapura City on Monday night last week. The machete in the hand of the figure with unkempt hair sliced through the falling rain, puncturing the right armpit of Alexander Pong alias Ongko, 64. The resident of Jl. Cenderawasih who was cleaning the drain in front of the house collapsed in a pool of blood. A moment later, the machete still dripping with blood was thrust into the back of Ngatiman, 36, a resident of Jl. Kasuari. Several hours earlier, 29yearold Maria Waren was stabbed by a man whose entire body was smeared with mud. The resident of Jl. Proyek Karsatama, Perumnas II Waena, fell flat on her face. Sustaining grave injuries, the victims were rushed to Dian Harapan Hospital.
By night the terror tightened its grip on the housing complexes of Heram district, Padang Bulan and Abepura. Residents were evacuated, the lights in the houses were turned off, while others stood guard on the streets. The residential areas stand adjacent to the Cenderawasih University rectorate building that was set on fire on voting day. The following day, three residents of Skow, Muara Tami district, who were riding a
motorbike, were caught in a volley of gunfire. The rounds damaged the motorbike but the riders, 35yearold Alimuddin and his wife and child, were unhurt.
When police attempted to pursue the perpetrator who seemed to move like a ghost, the terror attacks turned on the police. Papua Police Mobile Brigade (Brimob) officers were fired on in the village of Lumbuk in Tingginambut district, Puncak Jaya. Second Brigadier Musa Aninam was struck down dead by a bullet and six of his colleagues wounded. “They had wanted to pick up a colleague who was sick,” said Puncak Jaya District Police Chief, Deputy Sr. Comr. Chris Rihulay.
One after another, the terror spread in the leadup to the legislative elections on April 9. The day before the elections, a bomb exploded on the Muara Tami Bridge. That night, three ojek (motorcycle taxi) drivers in Wamena were stabbed to death and two of their colleagues seriously wounded. The perpetrator left behind a piece of paper with the message reading “From the West Papua Liberation Military Commander”.
On voting day itself the Abepura Police Station was attacked. Four of the perpetrators—Yance Yogobi, Andi Gobay, Dino Agobi and Erik Logo—were arrested after being shot. A machete and homemade bomb were confiscated. One of the perpetrators who managed to get away is known to be Nahason Mabel, a private
tertiary education institution student in Jayapura.
Up until three days after the election, the bombings and killings were still spreading. Three homemade bombs were discovered near the Abepura Police station. Nearby a sheath of a knife made from wood with the picture of the Morning Star flag was left lying on the ground. On that day also, 31yearold
Supandi Juhari, an ojek driver in Wamena, was stabbed to death on Jl. Sanger. “Possibly the perpetrators were members of the Free Papua OrganizationNational Liberation Army (TPNOPM),” said Jayawijaya District Police Chief, Deputy Sr. Comr. Mulia Hasudungan Ritonga.
That night, the Pertamina oil company’s depot in Bo village, Biak, was set on fire. Sarini, a 4yearold child died in the blaze when scores of houses were burnt to the ground. Around midnight, an armed contact between the Indonesian Military (TNI) and ‘ghost militia’ took place at the Wutung Police post near the IndonesiaPapua New Guinea boarder.
The elections, a special day held amidst the riots, were also seriously affected. According to the head of the Jayapura City Elections Supervisory Committee, Moses Youmungga, reports of election violations after polling day increased from 20 to 30 cases; Most occurred in Abepura.
The violations occurred as a result of panic. After voting had finished, precisely at 12 noon, all of the polling stations rushed to count the votes, which were then secured at the respective district offices. Aside from many witnesses failing to attend—which meant there was no independent verification of the data—no official reports were made out. “It was a state of force majeure, panic as a consequence of the rioting,” said Moses.
Strangely, the Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal & Security Affairs, Widodo A.S., has asserted that there was no link between the acts of terror and efforts to thwart the elections in Papua. “There’s no connection,” he said. Romulo Simbolon, Widodo’s secretary, added that separatist issues have long existed in Papua. “We don’t yet know who the perpetrators are, whether it was the OPM or not.” According to Romulo, there were no actors from Jakarta involved in the Papua riots. There was also no connection with the earlier golput (nonvoter group) student demonstrations in Papua. “The riots were because of the
idea of separatism,” said Romulo.
On Wednesday last week, the Papuan regional government, the Trikora XVII Regional Military Command and the Papua Regional Police gathered to discuss the issue. The result was that the police were still unable to reveal the perpetrators behind the riots and the acts of terror. “We will be calling on public figures throughout Papua to contain the panic,” said Papua Police Chief, Insp. Gen. Bagus Ekodanto.
A number of parties are suspected of being behind the terror and rioting. One is a group acting in the name of Mathias Wenda, which distributed a leaflet containing a threat to prevent the elections from going ahead. “They had already carried out an attack against members, right…I mean ojek drivers,” said Bagus.
Koteka Lani however, who claims to be the spokesperson for the commander of the TPNOPM group led by Goliath Tabuni from Wamena, has stated that the attacks, the shooting of ojek drivers and Brimob officers, as well as the other acts of terror, were carried out by his group. “The one running the OPM leadership is
General Goliath Tabuni,” said Lani. “These were TPNOPM attacks against Brimob, TNI, Polri (National Police).” He also claimed that the six Brimob officers who were shot in Tingginambut died on the spot rather than just being wounded as reported by police. “The six Brimob officers died instantly.”
But is it true that the perpetrators were OPM? OPM Tapol Napol (OPM PoliticalConvicted Prisoners) Secretary Filep Karma, in a letter sent to Tempo from Abepura Prison, said he does not believe it. According to Filep, since the 1980s the OPM has abandoned violent means to achieve its political goals. “OPM figures are now in their 70s and are complying with a leadership instruction to struggle through diplomacy and dialog,” wrote Filep. He says there is a group claiming to be the OPM that is spreading terror and carrying out the attacks. Their goal, “So that there will be security projects in Papua with huge budgets.”
The Papua People’s Council (MRP) also doubts the involvement of OPM militia members. “The OPM only attacks the headquarters of security personnel,” said MRP Chairman Agus Alue Alua. “It has never murdered civilians or damaged public facilities.”
The police are indeed continuing to increase troop numbers. On polling day, 105 Brimob officers from the Southeast Sulawesi Regional Police were deployed in Papua. On Wednesday last week, National Police Headquarters sent 80 Brimob personnel from Kelapa Dua in Jakarta to Papua. “Their arrival coincided with
the shooting in Tingginambut,” said Bagus Ekodanto.
Papua Deputy Governor Alex Hesegem views the perpetrators of the riots as being highly organized. “We invite the Papua Traditional Council and the Papua Presidium Council to give it consideration,” he said. The tight organization of the network of rioters has been confirmed by Cenderawasih XVII Regional Military Commander Maj. Gen. A.Y. Nasution. In order to assist police, the TNI has deployed thousands of personnel throughout the territory. “This is not a state of emergency, but of civil order,” he said. “The police are still in the front line.” The high level of security however, does not appear to have prevented further acts of terror. On the day of the arrival of the Brimob officers from Kelapa Dua, the Asologaima I State Junior High School was burnt to the ground. Yet the school had no electricity, stove or fireplace.
Dwidjo U. Maksum, Amandra M. Megarani (Jakarta), Cunding Levi, Tjahjono Ep (Jayapura)
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Ani Widyani Soetjipto: Women in Politics
The Jakarta Post
April 21, 2009
Matheos Viktor Messakh
For lecturer and activist Ani Widyani Soetjipto, the 2009 legislative elections were a big loss for the women's movement.
They were a real political loss, as female candidates who many were former activists failed to win the elections, she said.
"It turns out what we called the women movement is really fragile. Many activists have been working at the grass root level for decades, which is supposed to be the place to raise awareness among constituents and get votes," Ani explained.
"But the election results appeared to show there was no correlation between years of work invested in building grass root support* and actual voter support. It's very sad."
The woman who co-founded the University Network for Free and Fair Elections (Unfrel) in 1998 said women and civil society movements in general needed to reassess their strategies before deciding on any kind of policy intervention.
"What we don't have is the determination to stay in the course of the struggle and we don't have the people's mandate either. That's why the women's movement is easily shaken," she said.
Ani, who gained a master's degree in international studies from the Jackson School of International Studies, University of Washington, Seattle, said a better problem-mapping and role sharing between the movement's stakeholders could create better coordination and synergy.
"But we know the women's movement has very diverse agendas and interests," said the 48-year-old woman. According to Ani, although many activists became involved in community economic development, their intervention was not successful at gathering votes for the elections.
"We are assuming when the people are economically independent, they are able to cast their vote independently. It doesn't seem so. I guess many people who have empowered themselves economically have not done so in a political context," she explained.
For a long time, Ani has been advocating the 30 percent legislative seat quota for women since she became the head of the women's division at the Centre for Electoral Reform (Cetro) in 2002.
One of the obstacles the women's movement faces - when pushing its political agenda - is opposition from activists fighting against the state, she added.
"There is always tension between those who want to disengage *from politics* and those who want to take part in shaping politics."
There are at least three solutions to such a problem, Ani said, adding that prior to deciding which course to take, the women's movement needed to reassess itself in a holistic way in order to prevent the movement from failing again in future elections.
The first option is to withdraw from politics for a while to rebuild political power from the grass root level.
The second option is to reconfigure how constituents engage with and support a number of select activists that play a role within a party or in the House of Representatives. Such support should be a full package from supplying them with conceptual ideas to financially supporting them.
"We have seen that without money, many activists struggle to manage their campaign and maintain their connection with their constituents.
"It support can't start only one or two years before the elections. It has to start now if we want to see changes in the 2014 elections. It has to be a long-term, systematic and localized support for selected activists that will be expected to become the agents of change," she said.
The third option is full intervention at the legislative, executive and judiciary levels, said Ani, adding any
intervention at the national level always had a bigger impact.
"However, we have to be prepared for the risk of total failure at any level."
The women's movement has had little impact at the executive level since early political reforms in 1998.
"We have no control whatsoever at the executive level. Even if the House speaks as loud as it can, the executive won't listen."
The movement needs to ensure its candidates have integrity and are competent enough to be appointed at the executive level.
Participating in parties' internal reform is also another option, said Ani, because parties are at the upstream level of the political process.
The House will not improve until parties reform themselves, said Ani, who in 2008 successfully pushed for the adoption of affirmative policies for women in parties and election laws. Many activists have been preoccupied with their democratisation work and failed to notice the state was still repeating some of
its old antics, she said.
"What we see is the recycling of political elites. We see the same faces. The old enemy returns with a new face while we are not ready to face it." If the women's movement did not immediately come up with a common strategy to tackle the current political situation, the movement would fail once again and gain
nothing from the political process, she said.
Although many women had already enjoyed greater opportunities to emancipate, said Ani, they still faced cultural and structural challenges. Therefore women should not be perceived as already equal with men.
"Cultural intervention is a long-term process because people's mindsets have to change. In order to accelerate it, we must intervene at the structural level by passing laws and regulations *supporting the cause*," said Ani.
"They laws and regulations* could speed up the process."
For Ani, who has already had years of experience fighting for women's rights, celebrating Kartini's day is about remembering the essence of her struggle.
"The issues she fought for, like education for women, economic empowerment as well as political representation or the issues she fought against, such as polygamy, are still relevant. These issues are even more complicated now and we still have to do something about them.