Election news digest 6, 16 December - 14 January 2009

Contents:

Tempo reports on Megawati Sukarnoputri: Rising to the Challenge [16-22 December]
As Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's main rival in next year's election, Megawati Soekarnoputri is sharpening her strategy. Her campaign will focus on the economic crisis. At every chance to speak in public, she calls on women to support her while pointing out the rising cost of basic necessities. Includes an assessment of potential vice-presidential running mates. [full story…]

Only ten parties predicted to qualify for 2009 poll [17 December]
Only 10 of the 38 political parties intending to take part in the 2009 legislative elections are predicted to be able to pass the threshold of 2.5 per cent to qualify for seats in parliament. [full story…]

Second Central Axis of Islamic parties unlikely [17 December]
The president of the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), Tifatul Sembiring, has expressed pessimism about the possibility of a second Central Axis coalition of Islamic parties emerging in the 2009 elections. Coalitions will still emerge in the elections, but are more likely to be formed by Islamic parties joining together with nationalist parties.  The first Central Axis successfully broke the political deadlock at the beginning of the reform era. [full story...]

Human rights forecast poor for election year [23 December]
Most political parties contesting the upcoming elections lack a clear vision on human rights issues with none of them prioritising the protection of human rights, a new study shows.   President Yudhoyono's Democratic Party and Vice President Jusuf Kalla's Golkar Party are among those with the worst stance. [full story...]

Human rights in 2009: Year of forced choice [23 December]
Electoral politics and the global economic recession are likely to determine the direction of human rights in 2009, says Kontras director, Usman Hamid.  The result will be a forced choice for those seeking to protect human rights.  The trend towards image over substance is unlikely to  yield a political leader who is genuinely struggling for politics as a virtue.  The consequence of impunity is that alleged perpetrators of gross human rights violations will appear on a political stage that has become an arena for idols. [full story...]

New rules on Ballot marking [28 December]
A new regulation on procedures to mark ballot papers is being issued to prevent possible losses of votes.  The new rule will allow voters to pick both the candidate's name and the political party. [full story...]

SBY party gains wider support [5 January]
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party has increased its lead over its two biggest rivals according to a new opinion poll. 23 percent of the 2,200 respondents preferred the Democratic Party compared to 17.1 percent and 13.3 percent for the PDI-P and Golkar, respectively. [full story...]

Golkar launches campaign [6 January]
The Golkar Party launched its political campaign in the country’s major media amid grim predictions of poor party performance in the upcoming elections. [full story...]

Intimidation and threats in Aceh [7 January]
Party leaders are reporting numerous daily incidents of intimidation, death threats, and the burning of party symbols, especially in East Aceh, to the Election Supervisory Commission. [full story...]

Megawati visits Freeport, hospital in Papua [8 January]
Presidential candidate of the PDI-P, Megawati Soekarnoputri, pays an election visit to the Freeport mine in Papua. [full story...]

Prabowo Eyes Presidency through own creation, Gerindra party [7 January]
Although it was only founded in February 2008, the Great Indonesia Movement Party, Gerindra, is optimistic about its election chances with former army general Prabowo Subianto as its presidential candidate.  Prabowo came under the spotlight when a military council found him guilty of involvement in the kidnapping of activists and discharged him from the force. But the party has been hard at work to change his image. Muchdi Purwoprandjono, recently acquited of the murder of the rights activists Munir is also a party member. [full story...]

Indonesia's Economy And The Election: So Far So Good [10 January]
WITH only three months until parliamentary elections, Indonesia's six-month-old campaign has moved up a gear. For once, thanks to the global economic slump, it as much about substance as about style and personalities. And, unlikely as it seemed six months ago, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's government can hold its head pretty high. [full story...]

Analysts Demand Survey Institutes Divulge Funding Sources [10 January]
Politicians and political analysts on Friday called on the government to demand that survey institutes, which have been delivering a number of conflicting poll results, disclose their sources of funding. [full story...]

Parties Riding On Anger Over Gaza Accused Of Illegal Campaigning [9 January]
Street protests against Israel's military offensive in Gaza have given a boost to some of Indonesia's Islamic-based political parties as the country gears up for April's legislative elections. But their rivals have complained that the raising of the Palestinian issue amounts to illegal campaigning. [full story...] 

Constitutional Court agrees to help speed up trials of poll disputes [9 January]
The Constitutional Court has agreed to speed up trials for legislative elections disputes and violations, a move that has engendered hope that the presidential election, which pins on the results of the legislative elections, will proceed on schedule. [full story...]

KPU plans ruling on seat dispute [9 January]
The national polling body is calling for a regulation to follow up on a recent Constitutional Court ruling which states legislative seats will be distributed based on the number of votes candidates win in the upcoming April elections. [full story…]

Wiranto officially announces bid for presidency [11 January]
Former military chief Gen. (ret.) Wiranto, indicted on crimes against humanity charges in East Timor, has been officially nominated as the presidential candidate of his party, the People's Conscience Party (Hanura). [full story…]

The Swing Voter [11 January]
Profiling the typical Indonesian voter, or swing voter, who concerned with the global economic meltdown and wants to know what politicians can do about it. [full story…]

Women candidates not well known [8 January]
The campaigning period for the elections has not been long enough for many women candidates to make themselves known, according to the Minister for Women's Empowerment, Meutia Hatta. She said they often face negative attitudes regarding their political qualifications whereas men do not face this problem, even though they are often of poorer quality.  Effort is required to educate not only women candidates, but also women voters. [full story…]

Election reflections
The first three in a series of commentaries on the 2009 election campaign by Indonesia expert, Max Lane. [full story…]

PKS leaders named suspects over illegal campaigning [14 January]
Tifatul Sembiring, chairman of the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), and two other party executives have been summoned for questioning by the Jakarta Police for violating political campaign laws during a rally against Israel's attacks on Gaza. [full story…]

Top

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Tempo Magazine, Cover Story

- Rising to the Challenge

- Fighting for Poll Position

- Matchmaking for Mega

- Opinion: Rising to the Challenge

Cover Story: Rising to the Challenge

Tempo Magazine No. 16/IX/December 16-22, 2008

As Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's main rival in next year's election, Megawati Soekarnoputri is sharpening her strategy. Her campaign will focus on the economic crisis. MEGAWATI'S voice faltered as her eyes became glassy. "I often implore God, are women so despicable in His eyes?" she asked, trembling. With a melancholy look, the Chairperson of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) lamented the rejection of a female president, even by her own womenfolk.

"In the 2004 General Elections, I hoped very much that women would vote for me," she said. The 300 or so people attending the book launch of Mereka Bicara Mega (Speaking of Mega) at the Golden Ballroom of Sultan Hotel in Central Jakarta, on Friday last week, listened attentively.

"Only women know how difficult it is to put food on the table when prices are going up and up," she said, "Do men know the price of chilis?" The audience laughed and applauded. Once in a while someone would shout "Mega for President!" This is Megawati's latest campaign strategy—expounding on the theme of "Fighting for Affordable Basic Needs," which she began at the end of November. At every chance to speak in public, she calls on women to support her while pointing out the rising cost of basic necessities.

Two days before this unscripted speech, on Wednesday last week, Megawati also appeared at a Metro TV studio in Kebon Jeruk, West Jakarta. For over three hours, she was the guest star of the Kick Andy talk show. Her daughter, Puan Maharani and her two sons, Mohammad Rizki Pratama and Mohammad Prananda, were present, as were Taufik Kiemas, Mega's husband, and five of their grandchildren.

"For months I was asked to appear [on that program]. After a while, for some reason, it occurred to me that I should go. That way people will know who I am," said Megawati, two days later, at the Sultan Hotel.

Sounding slightly irritated, she continued, "Otherwise people will continue to downgrade me. I am called dumb, naïve, and just an ordinary housewife." A smile appeared on her face. "Yet, I am the longest-standing party chairperson in Indonesia today," she said, laughingly.

With seven months to go before the presidential elections, Megawati has been busy getting ready. She seems to finally realize that she is the only serious challenger to the incumbent. All political polls consistently place her right behind President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, familiarly known as SBY.

Today, Megawati projects an image of being more open, her public speaking style more fluid. She often appears in the media, something she used to avoid.

Objections to Megawati as President by some Islamic groups had begun to fade. Almost all the public figures who wrote their impressions about her in the book Mereka Bicara Mega represented public Islamic organizations. They were Said Aqiel Sira Nahdlatul Ulama), Din Syamsuddin (Muhammadiyah) and Ismail Yusanto (Hizbut Tahrir Indonesia). The cover of the book features a picture of Mega wearing Muslim dress, her head covered by a red scarf.

MEGAWATI'S political machinery has been gearing up for the 2009 General Elections for over a year. It all began in September 2007, when she declared her intention to run for the presidency. Before then, "Mbak Mega was waiting for the party to consolidate," said Tjahyo Kumolo, head of the PDI-P Election Campaign Board. In fact, Megawati only stepped forward when she was certain that PDI-P had at least 20 million card-carrying members. "That condition has been met," said Tjahyo Kumolo.

At that time, in front of about 16,000 party cadres who had gathered at the Fair Grounds in Kemayoran, Central Jakarta, Megawati repeatedly exhorted, "Are you ready? Do you want to win?" The cadres roared in unison, "Ready!" Seemingly wanting to be further convinced, she asked "Will you all work hard?" The crowd replied even louder, "Ready!"

It was then that Megawati finally gave her acceptance. "In the name of God, I accept," she said. Amid the lengthy applause that followed and the occasional outbursts from her loyal followers, Taufiq Kiemas rushed to the stage to kiss his wife's forehead. The crowd then broke out singing the patriotic song Maju Tak Gentar (Ever Onward Without Fear).

Budiman Sudjatmiko, a member of PDI-P's campaign team, recalled that defining moment last year, admitting that Megawati was initially reluctant. Mega, who is the late President Sukarno's second child, waited three years after the 2004 elections before declaring her intention to run in the presidency. In two PDI-P national work meetings held in Makassar and Bali, it was already decided that she would be their presidential candidate. "She continued to monitor and measure the organization's level of preparedness," said Budiman.

It was only after she agreed that the rank and file were put in order. Since then, three major groups have been set up to ensure an election win. The first group is the Election Campaign Board led by Tjahyo Kumolo. Its driving force comes from the party's official organizational structure, from the central to the subdistrict level. In addition, thousands of PDI-P candidates for the national and regional legislatures have also been mobilized through this network. Their headquarters is the PDI-P Central Administrators office in Lenteng Agung, South Jakarta.

The second driving force is the Victory Board. This body is headed by Lt. Gen. (ret) Theo Sjafei, who is close to Mega and also a senior-level party leader. The duty of this group is to garner potential support for Megawati from among workers, farmers and fishermen.

The movements of PDI-P organizational wings, such as the Democratic Struggle Volunteers, Baitul Muslimin Indonesia, and Taruna Merah Putih are also coordinated by this group. "We are looking out for the traditional bases of support and expanding it to strategic groups," said a Tempo source in this group.

The administrators of this body can often be seen gathering at a home with a large yard on Jalan Teuku Cik Ditiro, Menteng, Central Jakarta. When Tempo visited there at the end of last week, a security guard confirmed that it was the office of the PDI-P campaign board. Strangely, there was no sign of any kind in front of the white house, except for a small PDI-P sticker at the security post.

In addition to gathering support, this group is assigned with the initial work of forming a coalition between PDI-P and other political parties. For this reason, the group's executives frequently visit other political parties, opening lines of communication, and looking into cooperation possibilities after the legislative elections in April next year.

The final driving force is the Megawati Institute. This think tank has rented two floors of an office building on Jalan Proklamasi, Central Jakarta. Just like the office of the Victory Board, there is no sign in front of the building.

The assignment of this third team is to come up with Megawati's positioning among the other national figures, forming the campaign theme and programs, and creating a positive image of Megawati.

For instance, political ads for Megawati and PDI-P are formed by this institute, in cooperation with political consultant Citra Publik Indonesia—a subsidiary of Lingkaran Survei Indonesia, owned by Denny Januar Ali.

In addition, the Megawati Institute is also assigned with conducting surveys to test the public's perception of Megawati, her campaign programs, and the current performance of the Yudhoyono-Kalla administration.
Arif Budimanta, Director of the Megawati Institute, refused to give a definitive explanation about his role. "In short, our job is not only to ensure an election victory for Bu Mega," he said. This former lecturer at Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta explained that this institution is assigned with studying the social, political and economic concepts to be undertaken by Megawati and the PDI-P. "Our analysis and findings are announced to the public," said Arif.

Another Tempo source hinted that the role of the Megawati Institute goes beyond campaigning. Reportedly, it seeks out experts to fill Megawati's cabinet if she is elected. However, Arif again denied this. "We are only talking to them," he said. He did admit that former coordinating ministers for the economy, Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti and Rizal Ramli, economist Sri Adiningsih, and agriculture expert from the Bogor Institute of Agriculture, Iman Sugema, often visit the Megawati Institute.

ALTHOUGH such arrangements have been put into motion, this does not mean that Megawati's campaign has been running well. When it was first formed, coordination between these three main campaign groups did not always go smoothly. A Tempo source said that funding was often a source of friction between them. The Victory Board and the Megawati Institute were lucky enough to receive a larger share of the funds, compared to the other groups.

Indeed, the allocation of campaign funds has become a sensitive issue, particularly as the party coffers are reported not as full as they used to be. "The legislative candidates must fund their own campaign expenses," said another Tempo source.

This problem however, seems to have been finally resolved, and now there is synergy between the three groups. "The training of witnesses for the legislative election, for instance, is already being done in conjunction with the training of witnesses for thepresidential election," said this Tempo source.
The issue of a campaign theme also became a hot topic of debate. Initially, Megawati wanted to go with the slogan "Mega is Back, Life will be Good Again." A senior PDI-P official confirmed that his party had purchased the rights to the Koes Ploes song entitled Kembali (Back Again) to be used as the theme song for Megawati's election campaign.

However, last November the plan completely changed. The issue of "affordable basic needs" held better prospects for an election victory. "After rejecting the Pornography Bill, some were concerned that the possibility of the PDI-P being seen as anti-Islamic would be raised again," said a Tempo source. For that reason, a campaign based on pluralism was no longer seen to be strategic.

This was denied by Arif Budimanta. "Going with pluralism will always be the spirit of PDI-P," he said. Selecting the theme "affordable basic needs," he said, was driven more by concerns about momentum. Megawati's team is convinced that the central theme of the 2009 elections will be about the economy, considering that the economic crisis will get worse in the coming year.

The first test for Megawati's political machine will be the legislative elections in April. For some time now, she has been reminded that to win the presidential elections, PDI-P must come first in the legislative elections.

The question is, what if they fail? Some members of Megawati's circle have begun hinting about the possibility of her withdrawing from a second race against Yudhoyono. "Clearly Bu Mega would have to think it over," said a Tempo source.

From Yogyakarta, there is news that Megawati is getting ready to give her party's support to Sultan Hamengku Buwono X if they do not get as many votes as expected. However, this rumor was denied by PDI-P Secretary-General Pramono Anung. "We are sure that we can support our presidential candidate, on our own," he said, at the opening of a PDI-P event at Sultan Hotel. However, he did recognize that, "The first condition for that is winning the legislative election."

This was also the view of Taufiq Kiemas, who is Megawati's husband and head of the PDI-P Central Advisory Board. He said his party will still nominate Megawati. They are convinced that they will win the elections. "During the 2004 elections, we got 18 percent of the vote. Next year, PDI-P will definitely win more votes than Golkar," he said.

Wahyu Dhyatmika, Sahala Lumbanraja, Akbar Tri Kurniawan (Jakarta), Bernada Rurit (Yogyakarta)
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Cover Story: Fighting for Poll Position

Tempo Magazine No. 16/IX/December 16-22, 2008

IN the world of surveys, elections begin long before the actual voting day. Institutions conduct polling to measure the candidates' chances. Some of them do exceedingly well in poll after poll. Some rise and fall in the polls, while others seem to fade away. The presidential candidates take these polls into consideration when checking out potential running mates. In politics, everything can change at any given time. Polling results can also give indications as to what strategies will be employed by the candidates.

Yuliawati, Agung Sedayu

Potential for Megawati's Vice-Presidential Running Mate

Source: Center for Policy Studies & Strategic Development, December 2008

Mega-Hidayat 40.21%

Mega-Sutiyoso 11/.91%

Prabowo 10.01%

Mega-Sultan 9.87%

Kalla 9.43%

The Possibilities…
Megawati-Hidayat NurWahid:

"This [pairing] is a concept developed in various surveys. It has not yet become a party agenda. In principle, PKS determines its stance on nominating a presidential candidate after the legislative election."

Mahfud Sidik, Head of the Justice & Prosperity Party Faction
Megawati-Sutiyoso:

"I am still oriented towards becoming a presidential candidate. I have not yet considered becoming a vice-presidential candidate."

Sutiyoso, Former Jakarta Governor

Megawati-Prabowo:

"Nominating Prabowo is interesting, but his party must be first tested in the legislative elections. Megawati should not speculate [about his chances]."

Budi Mulyawan, Executive Director Of The Center For Local Government Reform

Megawati-Jusuf Kalla:

"The Golkar Party is still waiting for the results of the legislative elections. If we get more than 20 percent of the votes, we probably won't need to form a coalition."

Anton Lesiangi, Head of Studies for the Golkar Election Campaign Control Body

Possible Presidential and Vice-Presidential Teams

Source: Center for Policy Studies & Strategic Development, December 2008

Mega-Hidayat 40.21%

SBY-Sultan 30.78%

Kalla-Sutiyoso 27.09%

Prabowo-Sultan 25.67%

Wiranto-Din 18.33%

Electability of SBY vs Megawati

Megawati Yudhoyono

May 2007 Indo Barometer 22.6% 35.3%

December 2007 LSI 23% 33%

April 2008 LSI 25% 30%

June 2008 Indo Barometer 20.7% 30.4%

September 2008 LSI 24% 32%

November 2008 Cirus 16.20% 36.99%

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Cover Story: Matchmaking for Mega

Tempo Magazine No. 16/IX/December 16-22, 2008

The number of potential presidential running mates for Megawati's bid for the 2009 presidential election keeps getting smaller. Two are civilians, one is from the military.

MEGAWATI Soekarnoputri publicly shared her hopes at the end of her speech at the launching of the book Mereka Bicara Mega(Speaking of Mega) at Sultan Hotel, Jakarta, on Friday last week. After speaking for half an hour, she said, "I don't want my vice president to consider himself as a potential president."  The 300 or so guests burst into laughter. So did Sri Sultan Hamengku Buwono X, who has been mentioned in the list of potential running mates for Megawati in the next presidential elections next year.

That day, Sri Sultan was seated between Megawati and her husband, Taufiq Kiemas. Seated at their table was also economist Rizal Ramli and Gorontalo Governor, Fadel Muhammad—two people who have already declared themselves as candidates for the presidency.

During her speech, Megawati mentioned the close relations between her family and the family of Sri Sultan. When Sukarno, Megawati's father, was still president, Megawati was often asked to go along on visits to the Yogyakarta Sultanate, and was received by Sri Sultan Hamengku Buwono IX, the father of the current Sri Sultan, Hamengku Buwono X. "My mother (Fatmawati) said that Sri Sultan was [also] our parent," said Mega, chairperson of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).

This embellishment was immediately interpreted as her "blessing" to the Sultan to be at her side in next year's election. However, at a Pisowanan Agung ceremony held on 28 October, the Sultan stated he was ready to come forward as a presidential candidate.

THE book Mereka Bicara Mega was initially planned for publication on January 23, on Megawati's 61st birthday. However, due to technical problems, the book could only be released now. The cover design changed as well, from initially being white with a sketch of Megawati's face, to being red with a photo of her wearing a headscarf.

A Tempo source said that, at the meeting of the book-launching organizing committee, Sultan Hamengku Buwono X and Fadel Muhammad were included in the guest list. Reportedly, the Sultan was willing to attend as long as Megawati or Taufiq Kiemas were present.

Although the book was initially intended to liven up Megawati's birthday celebration, it turned into a campaign event to bring up the subject of potential running mates for Megawati.

There is no question that preparations are underway. At the end of next January PDI-P will hold a national convention in Solo, Central Java. One of the items on the agenda will be to consider a suitable running mate for Megawati. They hope that this event, which was supposed to be held last month, can lead to the formation of a permanent coalition, including certainty over who will become Megawati's running mate.

PDI-P Deputy Secretary-General, Agnita Singadekane, said that Mega's running mate will be selected from among nominations made from the lower levels of the party. To this end, the participants will come from areas as small as regencies. It is these aspirations from the lower ranks which will be mulled over and combined with the aspirations of central party administrators.

A number of Tempo sources have said that there are at least six potential candidates to be Megawati's running mate. In no particular order, they are: Sri Sultan Hamengku Buwono X, Hidayat Nur Wahid, Akbar Tanjung, Din Syamsuddin, Wiranto and Prabowo Subianto.

Of them all, only Sri Sultan was seen at the book launching. Even though he was present, he did not contribute any writing to the 245-page book, which is filled with opinions of various public figures on Megawati.

The only one among Megawati's potential running mates who wrote something for the book was Prabowo Subianto, a former commander of the Special Forces.

In a five-page piece entitled "There is No Revenge in Her Heart," this former son-in-law of the late President Suharto praised the political stance of Sukarno's oldest daughter, whom he felt did not nurse old wounds during her presidential administration.

When Suharto was in power, Megawati had positioned herself as the opposition. "She did not want to follow the credo of gunfighters in the Wild West era, namely that wounded enemies must be killed and rooted out," wrote Prabowo, who is Chairman of the Board of Patrons of the Greater Indonesia Movement (Gerindra) Party.

Amran Nasution, a former reporter who is now active in Gerindra, became the liaison between Prabowo and the PDI-P camp. Amran got in touch with Zainun Ahmadi, a leader of the Paragraf Foundation, the body which published the book about Megawati. Zainun is also Secretary-General of Baitul Muslimin, PDI-P's Islamic wing.

Thanks to the lobbying efforts of these two politicians, Prabowo took part in the writing of Mereka Bicara Mega. When asked to confirm this story, Amran said that he was contacted by Zainun. "I conveyed the request to Mas Bowo (Prabowo), and he immediately agreed," he said. But why wasn't Prabowo at the book launching? "I heard that the Gerindra Party was holding an event in North Sulawesi," said Amran. "I also couldn't come because I had the flu," he added. According to Taufiq Kiemas, Megawati's husband and Chairman of the PDI-P Central Advisory Board, Prabowo did not come to the event because he had already met with Megawati for lunch.

A Tempo source told how PDI-P is actually after three primary candidates as possible running mates for Megawati in the upcoming presidential election. They are Hidayat Nur Wahid, Sri Sultan, and Prabowo. Word has it that Taufiq Kiemas really had his sights set on Hidayat Nur Wahid, who he feels could bring in a lot of votes because he has strong support from Muslim voters. "Taufiq Kiemas was really for him," said a source from PDI-P. "He is the best choice."

However, according to internal sources of the Justice & Prosperity Party (PKS), whether or not Hidayat advances is highly dependent on the approval of the Majelis Syuro, which consists of 99 PKS figures. For that reason, Hidayat cannot operate on his own, "So this option is being shelved for the meantime."

As a result, this leaves two candidates with the best chances. Taufiq Kiemas, according to a Tempo source, prefers Sri Sultan over Prabowo. The Sultan seems to have the support of people in Java, who make up a large portion of the population. The only thing is that he is considered to be limited in financing matters.

Prabowo feels that PDI-P has strong financial support because of its many successful businesses. However, many feel Prabowo has a blemish on his record, namely the case of the abduction of activists. This matter is presently being raised by a number of politicians in the House of Representatives (DPR). The head of the special committee for the case of abducted activists is Effendi Simbolon, a PDI-P politician.

TAUFIQ Kiemas said that a coalition must be formed before the legislative elections. This coalition must also be able to win 51 percent of the votes in the legislature in order to secure the setting of government policy. "At this time we are going in the direction of Golkar first," he said.

According to Mangara Siahaan, PDIP Deputy Secretary-General, it could be that no one will be named at the national working meeting in Solo. "Because there are indications that parties want to form a coalition after the legislative elections" he said.

This was confirmed by Syamsul Muarif, a Golkar Party chief. He said that based on a Golkar leadership meeting, his party will only look into a coalition after the legislative elections. According to him, the Sultan has a chance to advance as long as internal studies indicate he has a good chance of doing well in the elections. "Especially if Golkar can corner 30 percent of the votes in the presidential election," he said.

According to political observer Arbi Sanit, the best running mate for Megawati would be the Sultan. "The primordial influence of the Sultan over the Javanese is still great," he said. With this influence, the role of coalition parties will become insignificant in vying for the presidency. "However, the condition is that the political concessions offered to the Sultan must also be convincing," said Arbi.

Budi Riza, Wahyu Dyatmika, Sahala Lumbanraja, Akbar Trikurniawan
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Opinion: Rising to the Challenge

Tempo Magazine No. 16/IX/December 16-22, 2008

THE political tradition which is going to be built by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) is worthy of emulation. Before stepping into the ring to run in the presidential election, Megawati Soekarnoputri is going to announce her cabinet ministers—of course only to be appointed if she wins the election. The identities of these individuals will be revealed at the end of January, before the election for the members of the House of Representatives (DPR) is held.

This refreshing move is an interesting precedent. It will be even more so if the proposed PDI-P cabinet is dominated by the youth. Megawati's core message would be clear: she would be giving a bigger chance to promising new faces. She would be choosing those who are not part and parcel of the past.

This bold move should not be limited to an early cabinet announcement. To really drive the winds of change, don't make a halfhearted effort. This move must extend to the top party leadership positions. Megawati's nomination as future President should not be considered non-negotiable. Despite being a selection in climatic fashion last year—with a tumult interspersed with hysterical shouts—it should still be possible to reassess that decision.

Re-nominating Mega as presidential candidate makes sense in the short term. All polling bodies have concluded that she is the strongest challenger to Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY), who has already said he will run for reelection. However, this nationalist party which has a mass following should be thinking long-term. Megawati once ran against SBY, and everyone knows what the outcome was. The party needs a new figure, a new hope.  Wasn't it precisely this persistence on going with Megawati which ended badly? A number of prominent figures left the party and founded the Reformed Democracy Party.

Megawati can still be a central figure without having to run again in the presidential election. She can carry out this special function from behind the scenes as a "queen maker", who tut wuri handayani (gives moral support and encouragement from behind); setting an example from the rear guard. Just give the presidential nomination of the Republic of Indonesia to a cadre or figure outside the party whom she may deem worthy. There are certainly many prominent figures, whether inside or outside the party, whose integrity is not doubted.

The myth of no other replacement being available must be broken. This time around the momentum should be used to produce an alternative candidate, while there is still time to do so. This new candidate does not have to come from within the party. In any case, this person will not be pitted against the party chairperson. To make them more solid and to instill a feeling of confidence, if needed Megawati could declare her support of this new candidate.

Re-nominating Megawati could prove to be a weakness. PDI-P did poorly in the 2004 elections. The votes for this "people's party" fell to 18 percent, compared to the previous election in which they were able to win 33.74 percent of the votes. They were the runners-up after the Golkar Party, which won 21 percent of the votes. This unwelcome election result was clearly connected to Megawati's poor performance when she was in office as President. This fact is strengthened by her defeat in the elections against SBY, even though at that time she was the incumbent.

This all means that it will be difficult for Megawati to present herself as the challenger. Having once led an opposition party is not enough. Opposing the current administration through rhetoric is insufficient. It is difficult to change the public's view of someone who was once a leader, then distanced by voters in an election, and then who finally lost. The presidential election is feedback from the constituency regarding how a leader has performed. If she once lost in an election, especially when she was still in office, she should think it over 1,000 times before attempting to return.

That is why it would certainly be good if Megawati was magnanimous. There is no need to force herself to step into the ring, but it would be sufficient for her to support her party's new candidate. An alternative candidate supported by a party as large as PDI-P would be an underdog, but one who could make a surprise showing. Win or lose, it all depends on the people. Didn't Megawati once say, "the important thing is that the country is secure" rather than fighting over who becomes President?

Megawati and a group of nationalists have built up this party to its present stature. Now is the time to select people with potential to carry on the effort of reforms. There is no longer any need to choose a "blue-blood," as PDI-P belongs to many, not just the family of Bung Karno. One of those people with potential should be appointed to run against SBY.

Is Megawati up to the challenge? That depends on how much heart she has and how she fares as a statesperson.

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Only 10 Indonesian parties predicted to qualify for 2009 poll

BBC Monitoring Asia Pacific
December 17, 2008
Antara news agency, Jakarta
Text of report in English by Indonesian government-owned news agency Antara website

Only 10 of the 38 political parties intending to take part in the 2009 legislative elections are predicted to be able to pass the parliamentary threshold.

"Based on the results of surveys by various institutions, eight political parties have a big chance to pass the threshold while five old and new parties will have to compete to become part of the ten," the Executive Director of the National Survey Institute, Umar S Bakry, said in Jakarta on Tuesday [16 December].

The eight political parties that had the biggest chance to pass the threshold were the Democrat Party, the Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP), the Golkar Party, the Justice and Prosperity Party (PKS), the Greater Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), the National Mandate Party (PAN), the United
Development Party (PPP) and the National Awakening Party (PKB).

Five political parties that would compete to become part of the ten to pass the threshold were People's Conscience Party (Hanura), Ulema National Awakening Party (PKNU), Reform Star Party (PBR), Crescent Moon and Star Party (PBB) and Peace and Prosperity Party (PDS).

Bakry said it seemed it would be difficult for the rest of the parties to pass the threshold set at 2.5 per cent of national votes.

"Their participation in the 2009 general elections seems to be [as] mere participants unless they immediately conduct serious and spectacular efforts to reach out to voters," he said.

Bakry said that since January 2008 the results of several surveys, including surveys conducted by the National Survey Institute, [indicate] that three political parties were predicted to pass the threshold easily, namely PDIP, the Democrat Party and Golkar.

"It seems these three parties will garner more than 10 per cent of the votes. PDIP and the Democrat Party will compete tightly to become the winner of the 2009 elections," he said. 

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Indonesian Islamist Party Leader: No Need For New Islamic Coalition

BBC Monitoring Asia Pacific
December 17, 2008
Source: Detikcom website, Jakarta, in Indonesian 16 Dec 08

On 16 December, the Detikcom website quoted the president of the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), Tifatul Sembiring, as expressing pessimism about the possibility of a second Central Axis coalition of Islamic parties emerging in the 2009 elections as proposed by Din Syamsuddin. Coalitions will still emerge in the
elections, but are more likely to be formed by Islamic parties joining together with nationalist parties.

"I feel that there is no (Islamic party coalition) because now nationalist parties and Islamic parties have drawn themselves closer to one another. A coalition must be between two sides, so all involved have to be mentally prepared for it," he said at the end of the Meeting of Young Politicians at the Hotel Ritz Carlton, in Jakarta, Tuesday [16 Dec 08].

The first Central Axis did successfully break the political deadlock at the beginning of the reform era. However, the national political climate which drove the formation of that coalition was vastly different to the current situation. As a result, Sembiring said that there was no need to form a second Central Axis.

"As far as I know, the first Central Axis [emerged] because there was a political need [for it]. Now there is no need," he said.

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Human rights forecast poor for '09

The Jakarta Post
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
By Adianto P. Simamora, Jakarta

The protection of human rights across Indonesia is expected to remain bleak next year because most political parties contesting the upcoming elections lack clear vision on human rights issues, a study shows.

The study, jointly conducted by the Setara Institute and the Indonesia Legal and Human Rights Association (PBHI), found both new and old parties showed poor commitment to promoting human rights.
"None of the political parties have prioritized protecting human rights," said a report from the study released Monday.

The report said the Democratic Party, founded by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, and Vice President Jusuf Kalla's Golkar Party were among those with the worst stance on protecting human rights.
The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the National Awakening Party (PKB) won praise for supporting human rights.

"Most parties will only voice an opinion on human rights if it does not create a negative image for them," the report said.

The study assessed the political parties' missions and visions, their response to rights cases and their stance during the deliberations of laws related to human rights issues.

There are currently 38 parties taking part in the 2009 legislative elections, with 24 of them -- mostly senior ones -- including human rights issues in their policy package.

The study said 14 parties, including the Indonesian Entrepreneurs and Workers Party, the National People's Concern Party, the National Front Party, the Indonesian Justice and Unity Party, the Development Functional Party, the Patriotic Party and the Republican Party, failed to outline a human rights agenda in their political platforms.

"From the assessment, most parties do not recognize the concept of human rights protection," it said.

The study also assessed responses from the parties to human rights cases reported to the House of Representatives, such as capital punishment, the shooting incidents in the Trisakti and Semanggi cases, the murder of noted human rights activist Munir, the abduction of democracy activists and violence against minority religious groups.

It also evaluated the opinions raised by parties during the deliberation of human rights bills in the House, including those on pornography, investment and mining.

The study found all parties supported the death penalty for serious crimes, which technically violates international principles of human rights.

"The parties have no initiative to eliminate capital punishment from the Indonesian legal system," it said.

The National Commission on Human Rights recorded an increase in the number of death-row convicts executed this year.

From January to July, six people faced firing squads, the last being the three Bali bombers -- Amrozi bin Nurhasyim, his elder brother Mukhlas and Imam Samudra.

The study said parties also offered mixed reactions to the House's plan to revive investigations into military-linked abduction of activists.

"Many parties, including Golkar and the Democratic Party, strongly rejected the reopening of these cases."

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Human rights in 2009: Year of forced choice

The Jakarta Post
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
By Usman Hamid, Jakarta

2009 will be the year of politics -- electoral politics to be precise. Thus, when one attempts to speculate on the human rights situation next year, the result will probably take a very political slant. Human rights will be positioned against the backdrop of a turbulent political struggle for legislative and executive power, the result of which will determine the future direction of the protection of human rights.

Furthermore, 2009 has been marked down as the year of global economic recession. Thus, as well as being dependent on the transition of domestic power, the human rights situation will also be heavily determined by the global financial crisis and the food, clean water and energy shortages, all of which have the potential to trigger drawn out conflicts.

What can be done in this kind of environment? Not many options will be available; indeed, it will be difficult for us to determine our own hopes and choices and most probably we will have to choose among options that are not appealing to begin with -- a forced choice.

During this first decade of reform, there has been a shift in the approach to human rights, from the politics of redistributive justice to recognition politics. The first prioritizes the public interest and political substance as the basic struggle. The objective of the second is to promote identity antagonism, which erodes justice in political and economic distribution, such as in the relationship between laborers and their employers in terms of workers' rights, or farmers and landowners in terms of agricultural reform, or the issue of the poor in terms of development and gross human rights violations during the Soeharto era. These were the issues that triggered the 1998 reform, but more recently they have come to be neglected.

2008 saw a slight opening of the window of opportunity. Victims of gross human rights violations met with the President, the coordinating minister for political, legal and security affairs, the justice and human rights minister, the Cabinet secretary, the foreign minister and even the defense minister. The President has also opened the Witness and Victim Protection Institution.

Unfortunately, the measures that President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and the current special committee of the House of Representatives (Pansus Orang Hilang) dealing with the case of enforced disappearances in 1997-1998 have taken in resolving gross human rights violations have been seen as efforts to create a good political image in the lead-up to the 2009 elections or to weaken political rivals who were involved in gross human rights violations.

These accusations could have been dismissed as groundless if law enforcement agencies and relevant ministers took a firm stance. Instead, some ministers have been too busy advertising themselves politically. They have been promoting the performances of their respective ministries, while inserting their own profiles for their own political interests, as if they fear being left behind by other candidates or parties. These promotional activities are clearly for political interests, because indeed the success of a ministry cannot be demonstrated through advertisements colored by pomp and makeup.

A simple example of the paradigm shift in human rights during the past year is the enactment of legislation based on religious-moral grounds such as the anti-pornography law or the declaration of individuals or groups as heretical -- which triggered violence -- and even the promotion of family values in political campaigns.

When the pornography bill was in the deliberation stage, the central issue in the debate was not about how serious the government was in tackling the problem or how effective the law would be in dismantling the pornography industry. Rather, it was about how virtuous people were. In other words, if one was to be considered devout and moral, then one would support the bill's enactment.

This is a dangerous shift. In various political contests, it is as if religious symbols have become the yardstick for measuring someone's suitability to be elected into a leadership position. In anticipation of the 2009 elections, public relations consultancies have helped the development of the mass media industry escalate to extreme proportions.

Political figures and alleged criminals have been turned into idols. Parties with no clear political track record suddenly emerge out of nowhere as icons of the Great Indonesian Dream. One party, formerly known for its self-proclaimed status as clean, caring and anti-corruption, suddenly put out an advertisement naming the world's most corrupt leader as one of the nation's heroes.

In another corner one can see individuals who have been named as opponents of human rights emerge as civilized intellectuals, competing in the political race by donning a new mask, such as fighter for humanity or defender of the poor.

Officially the general election has not started, but apparently in reality it is well under way, if prematurely. All the players in the next general election have started the race for gaining the most sympathy and votes. They do so by applying heavy proverbial makeup and proclaiming lip-service pledges. Their financial resources to do so seem to be boundless.

The advertising and campaign consultants know what to do and how to do it well. All the political advertisements have been scripted and produced in cinematographic quality, specifically designed to portray a certain image. Is it true that such and such a person has this particular national economic program? The advertisements offer no clarification. Advertisements in the business world often serve more as a feel-good lie rather than a means of educating consumers. This is also the case with political advertisements. At the end of the day they diminish further the substance of democracy.

The serious repercussions of this approach to politics is that the whole process fails to yield a political leader who is genuinely struggling for politics as a virtue. This is the shape of things to come in 2009 from the perspective of domestic politics.

As 2009 is going to be the year of global recession, the increase in the number of workers subject to mass layoffs across the world will be a specific and serious issue for human rights protection in Indonesia. The drop in the average income will cost many people their basic rights, such as the right to an adequate livelihood and even the right to work.

Furthermore, the struggle for the increasingly limited resources of food, clean water and energy -- all forecast to be in crisis next year -- can trigger conflict and violence. It is the global hope that this serious problem will not meet a dead end and that the election of Barack Obama as the next U.S. president can bring about economic recovery in the United States, in turn bringing about the recovery of the global financial system.

The world's political environment next year will likely be dominated by the tensions resulting from identity politics. Aside from territorial invasions over energy sources, the Mumbai attacks have driven a deeper
wedge between Islam and the West.

The present antagonism seems to ignore other possible motives. It is as if the complexity of Indian domestic politics can be simply explained away by the terrorist inclinations of al-Qaeda. In truth, however, a genuine solution to this problem will require international and interfaith dialogues.

Against this backdrop, what is the best approach for the protection of human rights? Where does human rights protection fit in the 2009 political matrix? There will be more than 30 political parties competing in the general election, but how many of those will include human rights protection on the national agenda and in their plans for future reform?

2009 will be a year of dilemmas. We will have to choose from unacceptable choices. This is the logical consequence of impunity. Legal procedures and mechanisms have been sabotaged to ensure failure in bringing to justice those responsible for the gross human rights violations in East Timor and the various other crimes in Indonesia's history. The appearance of the alleged perpetrators on the stage for the upcoming general elections seems to throw more whitewash over actions that have been proclaimed as criminal under international human rights law.

The political stage has become an arena for the idols. It is no wonder the prospective number of nonvoters has increased. This is the political phenomenon of voters protesting by silence, because the voice of the voters will remain unheard by the candidates. Yet if this continues unchecked, the result is political death. Politics will no longer be discussed within a substantive framework.

It is hard not to be skeptical in the face of these trends. Should human rights activists raise funds so they can produce advertisements to compete with those of the political candidates? If that is the arena where the contest is to be played out, the human rights community is guaranteed to lose. Perhaps we need to cast a nostalgic eye to the past, looking at what we did before the reform, in the era when the discourse of human rights was developed as part of discussions geared toward redistributive justice rather than identity politics.
Although the situation is political, hope prevails. For example, promoting various human rights platforms to all political parties could lead to breakthroughs. Another measure that could be taken is to promote the establishment of a Pro Human Rights Parliament Caucus.

The idea for this caucus took root after a number of prominent candidates joined the election. It is not easy for them to determine the stance their parties will take. Yet it is not impossible to establish a multiparty human rights caucus to ensure the parliament will be more sensitive to human rights protection.

This can also be directed toward the struggle at the parliament level to ensure a government Cabinet that is pro-human rights. Whoever the next president and vice president turn out to be, whether or not their Cabinet is pro-human rights will be reflected in the composition of the ministers appointed, especially for the positions closely related to law enforcement and human rights, namely the justice and human rights minister, the attorney general and the National Police chief.

The writer is director of Kontras (Commission for Missing Persons and Victims of Violence).

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Government Plans New Rules On Ballot Marking

The Jakarta Post
Sunday, December 28, 2008
By Desy Nurhayati, Jakarta

To prevent political parties from possible losses of votes at the 2009 legislative elections, the government is planning to issue a regulation-in-lieu-of-law on procedures to mark the ballot papers.

The new rule will allow voters to pick both the candidate's name and the political party on ballot papers at the elections, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said Saturday after chairing a coordination meeting to discuss this plan at the State Palace, Jakarta.

General Elections Commission (KPU) members, Cabinet ministers, House of Representatives leaders and heads of several state agencies attended the meeting.

Under the 2008 law on legislative elections, a ballot paper is only valid if it is marked once — either on the party's logo or on the name of a legislative candidate. A ballot paper will be disqualified if it contains more than one mark.

Under this provision, political parties potentially stand to lose votes because it is likely that many voters will mark their papers twice — both on the party's logo and on the candidate's name. This, however, was allowed under the previous elections law issued in 2003.

Under the new regulation, voters will be allowed to mark the ballot twice, thus accommodating those accustomed to doing so, as they did in the 2004 legislative elections.

The President said the issuance of the regulation-in-lieu-of-law was important as Indonesian voters tended to mark the ballot twice.

KPU chairman Abdul Hafiz Anshary said voters needed more time to change their habit of voting for both the party's logo and the candidate's name.

"The President highlighted in the meeting that the mechanism of marking the ballot papers should not confuse voters.

"It will be detrimental if there are many votes that are invalid because they are marked twice. That is why we need to issue the regulation in lieu of the law," Hafiz said.

He said the KPU would hold a meeting with the Election Supervisory Board (Bawaslu) and government representatives next week to discuss the issue.

Indonesia will hold legislative elections on April 9, which will be contested by 38 political parties. The outcome will determine which parties are eligible to field candidates for the presidential election three months later.

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SBY party gains wider support

The Jakarta Post
Monday, January 05, 2009
By Abdul Khalik, Jakarta

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party has increased its lead in popularity over the country's two biggest parties -- the Golkar Party and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) -- according to an opinion poll released in Jakarta on Sunday.

The survey, conducted by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) from Dec. 10 to 22 last year, shows that 23 percent of the 2,200 respondents involved preferred the Democratic Party compared to 17.1 percent and 13.3 percent who selected the PDI-P and Golkar, respectively.

A survey carried out in October by the same pollster found the Democratic Party led in popularity with 16.8 percent of votes, and put Golkar and the PDI-P behind with 16 and 14 percent, respectively.

Late last month, a survey by the Reform Institute revealed similar results, with the Democratic Party in the lead with 26 percent of respondents, followed by the PDI-P and Golkar with 17.8 percent and 14.2 percent, respectively.

"The Democratic Party continues to widen its lead while Golkar continues to fall behind. The PDI-P is meanwhile stagnant," LSI executive director Saiful Mujani told a press conference held to announce the results.

Jeffrie Geovanie, Golkar's deputy director of research and development, said he was aware the Democratic Party held the lead, and that the results were undoubtedly healthy for Yudhoyono's public image.

"But it is only temporary. Remember, the campaign period is far from over. We have not yet spent much on ads and haven't begun all of our direct campaigns so far," he said.

"But we (begin all of that) on a massive scale in January. We will start gaining votes as the elections approach."

Golkar was the most successful party in the 2004 legislative elections, winning 20.6 percent of national votes. The PDI-P came second with 18 percent and the Democratic Party third with around 7 percent.

Saiful said the Democratic Party's rising support was largely due to Yudhoyono's increasing popularity.

Based on the LSI's latest survey, the President is putting more ground between himself and PDI-P chairperson Megawati Soekarnoputri, with the margin 43 percent to 19 percent, according to the survey.

The opinion poll also shows that other presidential hopefuls, including Greater Indonesian Movement Party (Gerindra) leader Prabowo Subianto and Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono increased their standing by 5 percent each.

Wiranto, who chairs the People's Conscience Party, and Vice President Jusuf Kalla followed with 3 percent and 2 percent, respectively.

"The Democratic Party's rise has been driven by the success of Yudhoyono and his administration in the eyes of the people as the party is known as the government's party," Saiful said.

Yudhoyono's approval rating jumped to 69 percent in December from 45 percent in June, shortly after he raised fuel prices.

"In the last four months since September, Yudhoyono's popularity has continued to rise. And 69 percent is almost the same level of popularity as at the beginning of his term," he said.

However, Saiful said Yudhoyono's popularity would depend on how he handled the effects of the economic crisis, which are expected to reach a head within the next 100 days.

"Our people are rational voters. They will punish the government if it fails to deal with the crisis. If many people can't get jobs and basic commodities are too expensive then people will leave him," he said.

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Golkar Launches Campaign

The Jakarta Globe
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
By Muninggar Sri Saraswati

The Golkar Party on Monday joined the election bandwagon, launching its political campaign in the country’s major media amid grim predictions of poor party performance in the upcoming elections.

In print advertisements, Golkar portrayed chairman Jusuf Kalla and several young, popular Golkar members recounting some of the party’s contributions to the nation, including the historic 2005 peace pact between the government and the separatist Aceh guerrillas, improved education and the country’s development
including progress in the agricultural sector. Television advertisements were scheduled to be broadcast on several stations later on Monday.

Firman Subagyo, the deputy chairman of Golkar’s campaign team, said the party was starting to build its image through advertisements to remind voters of the party’s existence and achievements.

“We did not advertise aggressively before because it would not have been effective. We choose to start now so that voters will still remember us and cast their votes for us when the legislative elections take place in April,” he said.

However, he said that Golkar would not solely rely on the media advertisements to attract voters as the party’s executive board believes that it is direct communication between Golkar candidates and the public that would improve the party’s performance in the elections.

“All candidates must work hard to garner the most votes,” he said.

Firman believes that the image-building efforts will help Golkar gain about 30 percent of the votes in the legislative election, despite a number of polls that have predicted declining voter share for the party.

According to the most recent poll conducted by the Indonesian Survey Institute in November, Golkar was expected to gain 13 percent, behind the leading Democrat Party, or PD, with more than 23 percent of votes and the Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle, or PDI-P, with 17 percent.

In 2004, Golkar gained about 20 percent of the total votes.

Former Golkar chairman Akbar Tandjung said that the party’s executive board must take the polls’ predictions as a warning prior to the elections.

“Golkar has failed to raise the issues that interest people. Moreover, the party has to be solid to win the election,” said Akbar, who helped Golkar win the 2004 election.

He suggested the party “improve internal consolidation involving all party executives, members and cadres, as well as launch innovative measures such as holding a presidential convention.”

“Ad campaigns and direct communication with people are not enough to convince traditional voters to cast their votes for Golkar this year if Golkar cannot convince the people that it is a solid and strong party,” Akbar said.

Golkar has been plagued by internal bickering following the decision on which members the party should support in this year’s presidential election.

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Intimidation and threats in Aceh

Kompas
Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Some political party leaders have reported acts of intimidation and the burning of party attributes to the Election Supervisory Commission in Aceh.

Death threats have been sent by text message to candidates and party leaders, said Rachman Djailani, of Partai Rakyat Aceh on Wednesday. 'We are receiving hundreds of intimidations and death threats every day. If it were only one or two, we wouldn't mind but all this is intolerable.'

He said that during October and November, there had been 17 major violations such as the burning of flags, threats to people not to raise their flags and in some places death threats.

This was happening most of all  along the east coast of Aceh; where such things were happening on a daily basis. He said he personally had received a number of text messages with threats if his party were to dare to use their attributes or raise their flags. These threats were coming from unknown persons. 'They have no attributes but everyone knows who is involved.

According to Kompas, this is the first time official reports have been received, following the setting up of the local supervisory commission in the area on 30 December.

Similar acts of intimidation have also been reported by the chairman of Partai Demokrat in the district of Bireuen, Muhammad Ali. Some of their candidates have even been told to withdraw their candidacy.

Speaking for the supervisory commission in Aceh, Nyak Arief Fadillah Syah said that they would not tolerate such behaviour if they received evidence. He insisted that the election in Aceh must be allowed to proceed under peaceful conditions because the local population were tired of all the conflict in the past. He guaranteed that the commission  would draw up a list of violations and would ensure that they would handled in accordance with the law. He also said that any violations that had occurred before 2008 should also be re-investigated. 'If we fail to deal with past problems that have happened frequently, what can we expect about the future?'

He called upon local people to take an active part in reporting all forms of intimidation and violations of the election law which were perpetrated by national as well as local parties as well as any of the candidates for the senate.'

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Megawati visits Freeport, hospital in Papua [8 January]

The Jakarta Post
Thursday, January 8, 2009
By Markus Makur, Timika

Former president Megawati Soekarnoputri visited mining giant Freeport Indonesia's copper and gold mining site in Timika, Papua, on Thursday.

Megawati flew to the site in a Freeport helicopter and was greeted by Freeport Indonesia president & CEO Armando Mahler.

As well as visiting the Freeport site, Megawati, now the presidential candidate of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) which she chairs, visited Mitra Masyarakat Timika general hospital.

The hospital was built using funds allocated by Freeport and is now run by the Amungme and Kamoro Development Institute.

On Wednesday, Megawati celebrated Christmas together with PDI-P cadres and activists from across Mimika regency at the Eme Neme Yauware building.

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A Young Gerindra Eyes The Presidency in 2009

The Jakarta Globe
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
By Sally Piri

As a fledgling political party participating in elections for the first time, the Great Indonesia Movement Party, or Gerindra, is not going halfway in trying to ensure a party victory in this year's legislative and presidential polls, party executives said on Wednesday.

In October, a party leadership meeting agreed to name former Army general Prabowo Subianto as Gerindra's presidential candidate. And party cadres have been working hard to approach other political parties for a possible coalition if they agreed to back him as well, said Ahmad Muzani, Gerindra's secretary
general.

"Gerindra believes that we can nominate [Prabowo] as the number one person and we also believe we can win," Muzani said, adding that although the party was only founded in February 2008, it was optimistic that Prabowo could win.

He cited the case of the Democratic Party in 2004 when, as a newcomer on the political scene, the party managed to elect its candidate, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, to the presidency.

"We will enter into a coalition with any party who can help Prabowo win and become president," Muzani said, adding that appeals had been made not only at the parties' elite level but also with mid-level party cadres from the Indonesia Democratic Party for Struggle, the United Development Party, the Prosperous
Justice Party and the Prosperous Peace Party.

Prabowo came under the public spotlight when soldiers under the Army's Special Forces were tried over a series of activist kidnappings during the last years of former President Suharto's rule. A military council later found him guilty of involvement in the kidnapping and discharged him from the force.

But the party has been hard at work to change public perception of Prabowo, including through an intensive television ad campaign that featured him as head of a farmers' association, not the general he was known as.

Gerindra's television and media campaigns have helped raise Prabowo's popularity level among the public, independent surveys have shown, and even the bigger parties have begun to toe the line and start their own television and media campaigns.

Prabowo is not the only party member to have been in the public spotlight. Muchdi Purwoprandjono, a former deputy chairman of the State Intelligence Agency, who was acquitted by a court of charges of ordering the murder of prominent rights activist Munir Said Thalib in 2004, is another.

Strangely enough, several of the activists who had been kidnapped by a Special Forces unit from 1997 to 1998 are now sitting in Gerindra with Prabowo.

They include Desmond Junaidi Mahesa, of Gerindra's central executives board, as well as Pius Lustrilanang, Broto Seno and Irwansyah Hasibuan and former lawmaker Haryanto Taslam.

"I have nothing [against Prabowo], because he was part of an institution," Desmond said, adding that Prabowo, a Special Forces commander, was part of the military institution that, in the later years of the Suharto era, was a tool of the government.

"This was a military process, a part that was under Suharto's power back then," Desmond said. "And Prabowo is part of the old system, and everyone was part of that also."

Prabowo, whom Muzani said was busy visiting the regions, has been unavailable for interview for the past few months.

Desmond said that Gerindra had been working to strengthen the party's machinery in the regions, regenerate the party's membership and work to boost the party's image.

"I think we have adjusted our programs with those of other parties and built more concrete political communications," Muzani said.

"Still, so far, we have not discussed further coalitions to win the elections."

The party also did not yet have a target for the number of seats it wants to win in the legislative elections in April.

Another Gerindra executive, Tania Alwi, said that the party was recruiting members across the country.

"We are targeting 15 million members before the legislative elections on April 9," Tania said, adding that the party was already at half of that target.

How the Party Came Together

Feb. 6, 2008 Founders declare the establishment of the Great Indonesia Movement Party, or Gerindra.

Feb. 26, 2008 Gerindra registers as a political party with the Ministry of Justice and Human Rights, as required by the law.

May 12, 2008 Gerindra submits its membership list and accompanying documents to the General Elections Commission, or KPU.

May 31, 2008 Gerindra passes the administrative verification process at the KPU.

Jul. 7, 2008 Gerindra passes the factual verification process at the KPU and officially becomes a participant in the 2009 general elections.

Jul. 12, 2008 Former Army general, Prabowo Subianto, resigns from the Golkar Party and becomes a card-carrying party member of Gerindra. Prabowo holds card number AA.05000008.07.08, as issued by the South Jakarta chapter's executive board.

Oct. 16, 2008 Prabowo is officially nominated as a presidential candidate by Gerindra during its first national leadership meeting in Jakarta.

Jan. 10, 2009 Gerindra is set to add 50 new party department heads under its central executive board, joining the existing 30 heads.

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Indonesia's Economy And The Election: So Far So Good, The president has quite a good crisis

The Economist (UK) No. 72 Vol. 950
Saturday, January 10, 2009

WITH only three months until parliamentary elections, Indonesia's six-month-old campaign has moved up a gear. For once, thanks to the global economic slump, it as much about substance as about style and personalities. And, unlikely as it seemed six months ago, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's government can hold its head pretty high.

The data suggest the fourth-quarter slowdown in Indonesia was much less pronounced than elsewhere in South-East Asia. Economic growth for 2008 as a whole is likely to exceed 6%. Many other indicators are also robust. The 2008 budget deficit was 0.1% of GDP and the government has earmarked $3.5 billion to spend on tax breaks and infrastructure projects. Click here to find out more!

In late 2008 the currency, the rupiah, lost a fifth of its value against the dollar, but the slide has halted. The cost of insuring Indonesian government bonds against default has come down sharply. Inflation, still running at an annual rate of 11%, is falling, enabling the central bank this week to cut its benchmark interest rate by one-half of a percentage point, to 8.75%.

Most banks are healthy, thanks to radical reform after the Asian crisis of a decade ago. And in 2008 the country achieved rice self-sufficiency for the first time in 24 years. Manufacturing is starting to feel the heat but only 25,000 workers have been laid off since November. And, according to research by the Asia Foundation, an American NGO, the huge informal sector has yet to feel much of an impact of the crisis.

President Yudhoyono can certainly take some credit for all this. He courted unpopularity by raising the prices of government-subsidised fuel when oil was soaring last year, and has now been able to cut them twice. Measures have been taken to support the financial sector and the poorest in society, and his stimulus package will both offer tax incentives and finance additional infrastructure projects. Moody's, a credit-rating
agency, gave Indonesia a "stable" outlook in its annual report this week, expecting the authorities to manage the impact of the crisis competently.

Factors that have nothing to do with the president's policies are also helping. Domestic demand accounts for two-thirds of GDP, so though Indonesia remains vulnerable to sharp falls in the prices of commodities such as coal and palm oil, collapsing exports will not hit it as hard as its neighbours. The lack of infrastructure development in recent years means a few billion dollars will have a much greater impact than it might otherwise have done.

The government, however, needs to get the funds flowing fast and it is bad at disbursing money quickly. It also needs consumers to keep spending. Here the signs are ambiguous. Many Indonesians are not savers by nature. Yet carmakers, for example, are predicting a 25% contraction in sales. Food producers are less
gloomy.

However, Indonesia, which suffered worse than any of its neighbours in the crisis of the late 1990s, has not yet weathered this one. It is handicapped by the weakness of the rule of law, the poor investment climate (see article), labour militancy and creeping protectionism.

The elections pose another hazard: the extent to which government ministers are ready to put the country's interests ahead of their parties' electoral prospects is in doubt. And then there are the global unknowns that could wreak havoc. But Mr Yudhoyono is probably sleeping better these days than most of his regional counterparts; and better than he himself could have hoped just a few months back.

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Analysts Demand Survey Institutes Divulge Funding Sources

The Jakarta Globe
Saturday, January 10, 2009
By Camelia Pasandaran & Febriamy Hutapea

Politicians and political analysts on Friday called on the government to demand that survey institutes, which have been delivering a number of conflicting poll results, disclose their sources of funding.

Some analysts also demanded that the government establish an independent body to monitor the survey institutes, which have come under the spotlight for their controversial survey results.

Hadar Gumay, of the Center for Electoral Reform, said that the institutes should disclose whether they are a consultant for a particular political party and be transparent about their funding sources.

"It should be clear as to who is sponsoring these survey institutes," Hadar said, adding that the sum contributed by each sponsor should also be divulged.

Burhanuddin Napitupulu, who heads Golkar's campaign drive, said some of the survey bodies might have been influenced to steer public opinion.

"We should clean up these survey institutes so that they uphold a code of ethics," said Burhanuddin.

The recent results of political surveys have sparked the ire of many leaders of political parties, described by the polls as unpopular.

"We don't want the healthy political atmosphere that has been created in the lead-up to the elections to be spoiled by political interests," Burhanuddin said.

Among the latest survey results recently released to the public, the Indonesian Survey Institute, or LSI, said last month that its survey showed that the Golkar Party may see its popularity drop to its lowest point in election history.

The results of an LSI survey conducted Dec. 5-15 indicated that if the legislative elections had been held during that period, instead of the scheduled April 9, 2009, only 11.9 percent of the respondents would have voted for Golkar.

The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, or PDI-P, was said to attract the largest support with 31 percent, followed by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democratic Party, with 19.3 percent.

La Ode Ida, the deputy chairman of the Regional Representative Council, or DPD, said that the government should finance the pollsters so that they wouldn't have to rely on political parties for funding.

La Ode said he believed that some survey institutes might have been paid by certain political parties, which had consequently skewed their results.

"The pollsters should have to follow a tender process and work independently. They are not the tools of parties," La Ode said.

Fachri Hamzah of the Prosperous Peace Party, or PPP, said that recent surveys had been used by parties to boost their popularity. "That's why we need transparency. We need an independent ethics council," he said.

He also said that a pollster should reveal its funding sources if it wanted to go public with poll results.

Muhammad Qudori, executive director of Indo Barometer, said survey institutes had been in discussions to create a poll association.

Qudori said that dishonest pollsters would not be able to survive as the public would lose their trust in the company.

Suhardi Suryadi of the Institute of Research, Education and Information of Social and Economic Affairs, or LP3ES, said that his institute accepted funding from political parties.

He said, however, that the results of party-funded surveys were not made public.

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Two Indonesian Parties Ride On Anger Over Gaza

The Straits Times (Singapore)
Friday, January 9, 2009
By Salim Osman, Indonesia Correspondent

Election rivals cry foul as Islamic-based parties stage anti-Israeli rallies

JAKARTA: Street protests against Israel's military offensive in Gaza have given a boost to some of Indonesia's Islamic-based political parties as the country gears up for April's legislative elections.

But their rivals have complained that the raising of the Palestinian issue amounts to illegal campaigning.

Although campaigning has been allowed since July last year, parties are not allowed to hold mass rallies.

Yet the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) held a mammoth demonstration in Jakarta last Friday, ostensibly as a protest against Israel and the United States.

The Crescent Star Party (PBB) also seized on the Middle East crisis to issue a statement denouncing Israel and said it would send volunteers to Gaza.

Actions by other Muslim groups have closed a synagogue in Surabaya and sparked an attack on a KFC restaurant, part of the American fast-food chain, in Palu, Sulawesi yesterday.

The actions have found some sympathy in this Muslim-majority country. Last Friday's rally in Jakarta attracted more than 10,000 supporters.

Some waved the Palestinian flag alongside PKS banners.

But critics say the party's flaunting of its logo and party number at such demonstrations was simply aimed at winning votes.

'It is clearly campaigning. The party's logo was everywhere,' said Mr Jerry Sumampow, the national coordinator for the People's Voter Education Network.

Ms Wahidah Suaib, a member of the Election Supervisory Board (Bawaslu), said several party leaders had filed a complaint against the PKS, alleging that the rally was an indirect election campaign.

'We agree with the allegations and we will warn the party against breaching campaign rules,' she told The Straits Times.

By law, election rallies can be held only during a 21-day period that ends three days before the April9 polls.

But PKS president Tifatul Sembiring denied charges that his party was using the Palestinian issue to canvas support from voters. 'The rally was over the violation of human rights and was definitely not part of the election campaign,' he told The Straits Times.

Police have not taken action against the PKS because there was no evidence that the party had violated the election law, he added.

Senior PBB leader Ali Mochtar Ngabalin also said his party had responded because of 'the gross violation of human rights by the Israeli military' in Gaza.

Analysts say the use of the Palestinian issue has raised the profiles of the two parties.

Mr Tifatul said the rally had attracted new PKS members because 'they were attracted by the party's stand on human rights'. However, hecould not provide figures on the number of new members.

Mr Ali, who is also a member of the House of Representatives, said the PBB also expected new supporters to join.

'I can't tell you offhand how many have asked to join our party,' he said. 'But we know many people support our stand on this issue.'

salim@sph.com.sg

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MK agrees to help speed up trials of poll disputes

The Jakarta Post
January 9, 2009
By Adianto P. Simamora and Abdul Khalik, Jakarta

The Constitutional Court (MK) has agreed to speed up trials for legislative elections disputes and violations, a move that has engendered hope that the presidential election, which pins on the results of the legislative elections, will proceed on schedule.

The courts chief justice, Mahfud MD, said after meeting with General Elections Commission (KPU) members, representatives from the Supreme Court, the Attorney Generals Office and the National Police in Jakarta on Thursday that he was confident the 2009 elections would be conducted smoothly.

God willing, everything will be OK, he told a press briefing.

The meeting, he said, agreed that all election violation cases would be solved within five days of the KPUs official announcement of the results of the elections.

The Supreme Court will also prepare a ruling on quick trials for election disputes he said, adding that the AGO had said it had prepared 927 prosecutors to handle all disputes and violations nationwide.

The guarantees backed up by the two courts have given the KPU confidence it can conduct a successful presidential election, which it says will be held on July 27 or 28.

KPU chairman Abdul Hafiz Anshary said the legislative elections would still be held April 9, and election results announced May 9.

Earlier, the government said it rejected the KPUs plan to directly appoint contractors for the procurement of equipment and services for the upcoming elections.

The rejection was announced during a meeting between the KPU, Home Minister Mardiyanto, State Minister for Administrative Reforms Taufik Effendi and State Minister for National Development Planning Paskah Suzetta on Wednesday.

The ministers warned us [the KPU] about risks of directly appointing companies to supply elections logistics. They also asked regional polls body [KPUDs] to perform open tenders, KPU chairman Abdul Hafiz Anshari said Thursday.

"I have just ordered the secretary-general dealing with the logistics affairs to prevent any possibility of direct
appointments.”

The meeting, led by Paskah, was also attended by several officials of the Finance Ministry and the Cabinet Secretary office.

They expressed a readiness to help the KPU if we faced problems in preparing elections logistics, Hafiz said.

The KPU submitted a draft presidential decree Tuesday as a legal basis for it to directly appoint logistics suppliers.

Direct appointments were considered as a time-saving option after President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono asked the KPU to accelerate its tenders.

In response, the KPU asked for a presidential decree allowing it to directly appoint contractors. Abdul said the office would not withdraw the draft.

But, we will do our best to prevent the use of direct appointments, including [those by] KPUDs, he said.

The KPU has warned that KPUDs may face bidding problems as each must prepare tenders to procure 17 types of elections logistics.

The KPU plans to discuss the issue next week with KPUD heads.

Eleven provinces have so far carried out bidding processes.

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KPU plans ruling on seat dispute

The Jakarta Post
Friday, January 9, 2009
By Adianto P. Simamora, Jakarta

The national polling body is calling for a regulation to follow up on a recent Constitutional Court ruling which states legislative seats will be distributed based on the number of votes candidates win in the upcoming April elections.

General Elections Commission (KPU) chairman Abdul Hafiz Anshari said the regulation would outline the method for distributing seats to legislative candidates based on the number of seats won by each political party in the elections.

"According to the draft, the candidate who earns the most votes will directly receive a seat," he told reporters Thursday.

He said the commission was still discussing how to resolve problems if two or more legislative candidates won an equal number of votes.

"We are considering firstly to evaluate the size of the electoral districts won by the candidates. The seats will be handed over to the candidates who are elected in a number of electoral areas," he said.

"But, if the candidates win in districts of the same size, we are considering three options: allowing political parties to distribute the seats, using a numerical order system or through a lottery," Hafiz said.

The Constitutional Court revoked an article in the 2008 legislative elections last year concerning the way in which legislative seats were distributed.

The annulled article allowed party leaders to handpick close supporters to represent the parties in the national and regional legislatures, rather than to candidates who won the most votes.

The law also states that legislative seats must first be distributed to candidates who secure at least 30 percent of the original vote.

The rest of the seats are then allocated according to the list of the permanent legislative candidates submitted by the political parties.

Hafiz said the KPU had earlier wanted to seek a more powerful policy in the form of a government regulation in-lieu-of law (perpu) on the distribution of legislative seats.

"But the court judges informed us the ruling was legally binding and there was no need to issue this regulation," he said.

Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) politician Ganjar Pranowo said the KPU regulation was "too weak" to regulate the distribution of legislative seats.

"It is dangerous because the KPU is a government agency. People or groups not satisfied with the KPU regulation could bring the case to court, which could threaten the cancellation of the elections," he said.

He said the House of Representatives needed to set up a special commission to alter articles in the 2008 election law which were annulled by the court.

Ganjar also criticized the government's plan to issue a regulation allowing voters to tick ballot papers twice in the legislative elections.

"I do not understand the government's way of thinking. I did not detect any emergency need for issuing this regulation. The government needs to focus on regulating the ways of distributing legislative seats," he said.

The KPU has sent the regulation draft to the President for approval.

A regional legislative candidate in Bekasi regency, West Java, Parsaulian Tambunan also opposed the issuance of the regulation allowing voters to double tick on ballots.

"Most legislative candidates have campaigned for voters to tick once on ballot papers as stipulated in the election law. It will confuse voters," Parsaulian, from the Nationality Democracy Party (PDK) said.

Meanwhile, a politician from the Democratic Party, Atte Suganda said allowing voters to tick twice on ballot papers was essential to avoid ballots becoming invalid as many people were still unaware of the new voting procedure.

"An internal survey shows about 40 percent of ballot papers would be invalid if we apply the old voting

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Wiranto officially announces bid for presidency

The Jakarta Post
Sunday, January 11, 2009

Former military chief Gen. (ret.) Wiranto officially announced on Sunday that he intends to run in this year's presidential election.

His party, the People's Conscience Party (Hanura), met in Makassar this weekend and officially nominated him as their presidential candidate.

"I accept and I am ready to be nominated as a presidential candidate for the 2009 presidential election," he said while closing the party's meeting.

He then told Hanura cadres to work hard to collect the support needed to enable the party to nominate a presidential candidate.

According to law, a party or coalition of parties must control at least 20 percent of seats in the House of Representatives to be eligible to nominate a presidential candidate. (rid)

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The Swinging Voter: Pak Karso

Sin Chew Jit Poh (Malaysia)
Sunday, January 11, 2009
By Karim Raslan

What is the profile of a typical Indonesian voter, or better yet, a swing voter? What are his or her concerns, and what do they look for in their candidates?

Some exceptions aside, the issues that matter to your Indonesian man or woman on the street are remarkably a lot like their counterparts from Malaysia. Like Malaysians, they too are feeling the pinch of the global economic meltdown and want to know what the politicians are going to do about it.

But first, a short primer on Indonesian politics. The Republic, as you may know is holding its legislative and then presidential elections this year. For the former, the Indonesians utilize a proportional representation system based on party lists. For the latter, Indonesians have since 2004 enjoyed the right to directly elect their President, where this post was in the past selected by their People's Consultative Assembly or MPR.

Nevertheless, the outcome of the parliamentary elections will still play a role in shaping the outcome of the executive polls. Under the present electoral regulations, a presidential candidate needs to secure either 20% of the seats in the legislature or 25% of the popular vote in the Legislative polls in order to run. This represents a considerable hike from the 2004 thresholds, which was only 15%. A run-off will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote. "I voted for him in 2004 but I'm not so sure now."

While the larger parties like former President Megawati Sukarnoputri's PDI-P and the once-ruling Golkar should have no trouble in crossing the various thresholds, smaller parties, including incumbent Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's Democrats will be particularly vulnerable. They cannot afford to lose any support and swinging voters especially those, whose lives are determined by minute shifts in the cost of basic necessities

I found an individual who is fairly representative of this constituency in Pak Karso (not his real name), a 50-year old meat-seller from Pemalang, Central Java who now lives in Jakarta. For good or ill, Java is the backbone of Indonesia and its electors are vital in the equations of any politicians. Karso lives in the metropolis with his wife and their two grown up sons. In fact, they live, work and sleep in the same small
space.

But Karso's poverty is not due to a lack of hard-work. He is up every day at 5:00 AM and heads off to the nearby market past the many Arab-owned traditional perfume shops along his lane. The stall - it's about ten square meters - is located just off the bustling Jalan Kiyai Mas Mansyur in the busy Jakarta district of
Tanah Abang.

Pak Karso will buy about 5-6 kilos of 'super quality' rump meat that costs him about 64,000 Rupiah a kilo. His overheads have gone up, the same amount only cost 54,000 before the Lebaran festival. Karso works painstakingly, along with other bakso sellers, to prepare the meat- which can take up to two hours a day.

Making ends meet is, as mentioned, a growing concern. "Nowadays with Pak SBY everything is more expensive". He tells me. "He's a (SBY) good man personally. Maybe it's the people around him? Maybe they're not telling him the truth? I voted for him in 2004 but I'm not so sure now. Ibu Mega would be better for the economy".

But Pak Karso has changed allegiances before. He worked security for the local PDIP during the momentous 1999 campaign, but was quickly disillusioned when Megawati's government was unable to deliver on its promises. Still, Pak Karso feels that prices for  asic goods were more stable under her administration, a key point for a country as vulnerable to inflation as Indonesia is.

While, as he says he doesn't blame SBY personally for his troubles, he is rather critical of the man's policies. "I don't agree with some of Pak SBY's policies especially the 'BLT' (direct payments to the poor). They are a waste of money. Besides I've never received anything! What we need is credit and
jobs not cash."

All things considered, Pak Karso is a relatively simple man. He has only had 2 years of primary schooling, although he wants better for his children. When asked about the impact of the 1998 'Reformasi', that toppled Suharto, he snorts derisively: "It's made no difference for 'wong cilik' (the little people) like me!" Nevertheless, the violence in Jakarta from that period briefly forced him to return to Pemalang.

His is a various precarious solution and while he and his family is getting by, Pak Karso is far from satisfied with his lot in life. More importantly, the ranks of Indonesians in his position are swelling day-by-day.

As the cost-of-living rises, how voters like him will vote shall be increasingly dictated by their pocketbooks. SBY needs to up his economic stewardship in light of this, for the final outcome of the Presidential contest will undoubtedly be in the hands of swing voters like Pak Karso. (By KARIM RASLAN/ MySinchew).

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Women candidates not well known

SINDO
Saturday, January 8, 2009

The campaigning period for the elections has not been long enough for many women candidates to make themselves known to the voters., according to the Minister for Women's Empowerment, Meutia Hatta.

'There's not much we can do in advance of the forthcoming elections, she said, 'and we will have to work hard in the future to explain why it is important for women to be elected.'

She said that women face many difficulties in taking a leading role in political affairs. They often face negative attitudes regarding their qualifications for becoming members of the legislative whereas men do not face this problem, even though they are often of poorer quality than women.

The last election in 2004 was a very bad experience for women, Even in cases where they were in the top position on the party's list, they were not chosen to take the seat. Even if a women gets a majority of votes, they may be low down in the party's list.

She said that with adoption of the principle of majority voting, it was often the case that the woman candidate was not well known.

She said this would require a lot of efforts to educate not only potential women candidates but also women voters, to understand the need to vote for women candidates.

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2009 Indonesian elections: Reflections 1 (September 8)

By Max Lane
Monday, September 8, 2008

[The following are notes intended to be the first in a series of informal commentaries on the 2009 Indonesian election campaign. I will try to write these reasonably regularly - but no guarantees. I hope they are of interest.]

The Indonesian election campaign has started, following the announcement of the 44 political parties that passed the electoral verification process. The most obvious signs have been the waves of TV and newspaper political ads broadcast by the most well-healed parties, particularly the new parties established by ex-general Wiranto (HANURA) and ex-general Prabowo (GERINDRA). In reality, however, electoral politics has been ongoing now for at least two years. This has been the result of the new laws passed a few years ago to allow direct elections for the positions of Governor and Vice-Governor as well as for Bupati and Vice-Bupati. Bupatis are head of Kabupaten, the administrative region below governor. The Kabupaten are important administrative units because following the passing of decentralization laws in 2001-2, the Kabupaten administrations have had significantly enhanced budgetary powers.

Elections for governors and bupatis have been staggered throughout the last two years. This means that it is possible to identify some general trends and features of electoral political activity. Some key points are:

Ideological consensus

It would be tempting to conclude that policy and ideology have played no role in these processes, with no clear pattern to the wide range of combinations and alliances that have taken place. Everybody has been in alliance with everybody at some time or another: fundamentalist with secular; “nationalist” with “religious”; so-called opposition with government parties and so on. However, the more appropriate conclusion is that there is general consensus among all the currently registered parties that the ideological, economic and political perspectives currently reflected in government policies are more-or-less acceptable to all. Differences between parties reflect more the politico-cultural outlooks of segments of the elite whose patron-client praxis is different. These different patron-client praxis in turn can flow from there being different regional bases or different religious bases or different histories of interventions into electoral or other politics.

There has been a fairly consistent record of the parties in the parliament all voting for the major economic, social and political legislation that have become before the parliament. The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) has been the most active in attempting to present itself as a party of opposition, having taken a few symbolic actions, such as staging a walk-out at the time of the vote of the new very neo-liberal
foreign investment law. The party of (at that time) Abdurrahman Wahid (Gus Dur), the National Awakening Party (PKB) also staged a walk-out. All other parties voted for the legislation. Voting for pro-neoliberal legislation, and for the government budgets based on its neo-liberal strategy, has been the general pattern in the parliament underlining the fact that there is no ideological differences on economic issues among the parties. Almost all parties, including the smaller parties, also voted for the new electoral legislation aimed at making it difficult for new parties, especially unmoneyed parties, to register.

(The only really consistent policy difference to emerge has been over moral-religious issues with the more conservative religious based parties, such as the United Development Party (PPP), the Star and Crescent Party (PBB), and the Star Reform Party (PBR) supporting the more harsher versions of laws making religious education obligatory, women’s dress codes harsher and, outside of the formal parliamentary processes, mobilizing together demanding the banning of organizations they consider heretical.
The other parties have either resisted this, or tried to find a way to acquiesce quietly or compromise.)

Cynicism

One common feature of the electoral results has been a manifest cynicism among the voters. Turn-out has been low for Indonesian standards, with between 30-40% of eligible voters either not voting or not registering to vote in many elections. I suspect that the figure is actually higher given the high mobility of the Indonesian semi-proletariat and the difficulty in registering them at a fixed address for election purposes.
Another manifestation of the cynicism towards all the parties is that the parties themselves, having picked up on how much they are disliked, have increasingly put forward candidates not associated with them historically. Thus they nominate show-biz celebrities, religious figures, academics and other non-party
community personalities. Interestingly, one category of non-party figures that have been tried, but have failed, are prominent ex-generals and police officials. Celebrities and non-party “community personalities” have been doing better. Of course, none of these figures have been part of any political activity in opposition to the pro-neoliberal economic strategy nor the policies aimed at defending the hegemony of the
establishment parties and figures.

New parties

44 parties succeeded in registering for the 2009 elections, including the 17 parties already in the parliament. I know little about most of these parties (which I suspect will be the same for most potential Indonesian voters). Of the new parties (though some may be renamed parties that have tried and failed to register for earlier elections), it is HANURA, headed by ex-general Wiranto and GERINDRA (headed by ex-General Prabowo) that will have the highest name recognition as a result of quite substantial television advertising.

There are no signs yet of any of the other new participants for 2009 having a campaigning capacity that may allow them to have a significant national impact. Most of the media discussion of the parties still focuses upon what are considered by the media commentators to be the front runners to have a significant parliamentary representation. These are:

• GOLKAR Party

• Demokrat Party (of current president Yudhoyono)

• PDIP, headed by Megawati Sukarnoputri

• PAN - National Mandate Party, whose first chairperson was Amin Rais and which is still associated in many peoples minds with the Muhammidiyah (although at least one of the new parties also has a Muhammidiyah association.)

• PKB - National Awakening Party. The PKB was formally associated with Abdurrahman Wahid, but he lost control of the party in the course of a recent dispute with other PKB leaders. The PKB split and the Electoral Commission has recognized the non Gus Dur PKB as the one with the right to participate in the elections.

• PKS - Justice Welfare Party. This is a small party, but with a disciplined membership base among a strongly religious base. There is a lot of discussion that it may be increase its national vote in 2009. It scored about 7% last time, but has got as high as 30% in Jakarta. In the election for Jakarta governor, it faced off against a coalition of almost all the other parties and still got around 40% of the vote. While having a staunchly fundamentalist leadership and base and promoting the Islamic syariah among its own members and supporters, it packages itself to the rest of the community as a modern, welfare oriented party.

Neither HANURA nor GERINDRA have entered most commentator’s calculations at this point, apart from people speculating on the impact of their advertising campaign and the obvious access ex-generals Wiranto and Prabowo have to funds. Of course, the campaign period has just begun and still has seven months to go, so nothing can be ruled out yet in terms of any of the new parties ­ or the older smaller parties ­ finding gimmicks or tactics to propel them forward.

Social movements and “civil society” opposition

A section of the social and political activist sectors, claiming to be opposed to the neoliberal economic strategy of the government and to the policies aimed at institutionalizing the political establishment’s hegemony have attempted to register to participate through new parties in the elections.

Peoples’ Unions Party

There had been two efforts for parties with their roots and base in the social political activist milieu to register for the elections. One was the attempt by activists from various, mainly rural NGO, advocacy and community campaign groups to register the Partai Perserikatan Rakyat (Peoples Unions Party - PPR). The PPR was formed in 2005 and aimed for registration for the 2009 elections. It tried to amalgamate activists from a range of the local community activist groups into a national electoral party. However, it could not consolidate enough people and resources to meet the onerous bureaucratic qualifications for parties to register (which require not only proof of the numbers of members in more than half of Indonesia’s regions, but also proof of the existence of registered and equipped physical offices.) I am not clear where the PPR people are concentrating their political efforts now.

Peoples Democratic Party

The second effort was by the Peoples Democratic Party (PRD) which formed a new party, PAPERNAS (Party of National Liberation Unity), to attempt to gain electoral registration. PRD had made a similar attempt to register a party called POPOR for the 2004 elections. The effort, which had begun just a few months before the deadline for verification failed. This time they began their effort to recruit PAPERNAS members and activists much earlier. Despite a massive effort and a substantial increase in the PRD’s activist resource e base, reflected through the PAPERNAS structures, there were still not enough people or resources to
expect to be able to successfully register for the elections. As a result, the PRD leadership adopted a position of seeking to stand its leaders as candidates for the Star Reform Party (Partai Bintang Reformasi), a formally Islamic based party. A minority of the leadership and membership opposed this decision and were eventually expelled from the PRD as a result.

The chairperson of the PRD and the person originally nominated as PAPERNAS’s presidential candidate, Dita Sari, is now one of six PRD leaders, standing under the banner of the PBR.

In most of the left, activist milieu, this move is seen as the PRD breaking way from its earlier trajectory, where it was seen as both a socialist and a mass action strategy oriented party. It an interview, with the new publication JURNAL BERSATU, PRD leader and PAPERNAS secretary-general, Harris Sitorus, stated: “Papernas itself is projecting to take state power, because real power lies in the state institutions, such as the parliament and so fourth. It is here that political power is established, not in the streets.” Previously, the PRD saw extra-parliamentary struggle through mass action as the primary form of struggle and the arena in which working people would develop their power; now street protest mobilizations, which have become fewer in any case, are subordinated to the electoral ambitions.

The decision has also bewildered people because of both the very conservative religious base and policies of the PBR, as well as the extreme opportunism of its leadership generally. I just note here a few basic points about the PBR’s record:

• The PBR has voted for almost every pro-privatisation and deregulation legislation introduced by the Yudhoyono-Kalla government (at least the other former PRD chairpertson who has gone over to a bourgeois party, Budiman Sujatmiko, can claim the PDIP walked out on the vote on the neo-liberal foreign investment law)

• The PBR has voted for the budget, including the budgets with the fuel price rises

• The PBR supported the new education law making it compulsory for children to receive religious instruction in state schools, while secular and pluralist forces campaigned against it

• The PBR signed the letter by a range of conservative religious organizations, including the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) which had attacked civilian protesters defending the democratic rights of the Ahmadiyah, demanding the government ban the Ahmadiyah organization ­ a peaceful religious group with 500,000 members and whom have existed in Indonesia for 100 years

• That the PBR chairperson has been campaigning for the GOLKAR and Demokrat Party candidates for governor in Sumatra

• That the PBR chairperson has stated in the media that he thinks the current head of GOLKAR, Vice-President and leading capitalist, Yusuf Kalla, in conjunction with mulit-millionaire Sultan of Jogjakarta, an interesting offering in the presidential elections, making no critical comments whatsoever

• That the PBR chairperson has agreed to provide a platform for former Suharto cabinet minister and head of GOLKAR, Akbar Tanjung, at the PBR convention to choose a presidential candidate as well as arch neo-liberal ideologue, Rizal Mangelarang

According to a newspaper report (Java Post) ,Dita Sari stated that

“she does not have a problem with the PBR being an Islamic based party. This is because much of the PBR’s program is in accordance with her [views]. For example, economic independence that is not dependent upon foreigners, the option of abolishing the foreign debt and economic development in rural areas as a priority. “I see the PBR as a party that is trying to introduce Islamic principles with a more open understanding,” she said. (more)

Dita Sari may have been referring to a ‘political contract’ that the PBR signed stating a ‘minimum commitment” with the Indonesian Union for the Poor (SRMI), according to KOMPAS newspapers:

"The Minimum Commitment asserts that the PBR will struggle for national self-sufficiency through accelerating the rescue of national assets, abolishing the foreign debt and national industrialisation. The PBR was also asked to struggle for healthcare guarantees and free education, not to evict the poor
from their homes and provide job opportunities for the people". (more)

Despite all its election period rhetoric and "political contracts", given its record, it is difficult to see the PBR as anything but another of the opportunist, socially reactionary and neo-liberal complicit components of the bourgeois political establishment. Like all of the parties in the parliament, we can expect it during the next seven months of campaigning to be using more nationalist and populist rhetoric. All of these parties will contort whichever way the need to in order to attract this or that constituency.

Counter-positions

The PRD’s new policy of seeking to convince the people to campaign for, support and vote for the PBR, despite its record, stands in direct counter-position of the efforts of a large number of activist groups throughout the country, as well as the long-term projections of the PRD aimed at developing a political movement and political culture that broke with the masses’ dependence on the political elite and its establishment. It should be pointed out here that the minority that was expelled from the PRD for its opposition to the new line has formed as the Political Committee of the Poor ­ PRD (KPRM-PRD), which in
turn has also formed the Union of the Politics of the Poor (PPRM), comprising KPRM-PRD members, PAPERNAS members in agreement with the basic position of the KPRM-PRD and other newly recruited activists. However, the KPRM-PRD and PPRM are not the only other political or activist groups who are choosing a different and counter-posed route, to the PRD.

Before commenting on the KPRM-PRD and such other groups, it should also be noted that the adoption of a policy of working inside political parties of the political establishment has not been confined to the current leadership of the Dita Sari wing of the PRD. Both other PRD leaders, as well as activists from the NGO sectors, have increasingly adopted this approach. In some respects, the 2009 elections represents the defeat of the 1990s generation given that such a large segment of them are being absorbed into the institutions that they had previously declared their enemies.

Other PRD leaders who left the PRD earlier to join parties of the establishment ­ all of them complicit in the implementation of neo-liberal and anti-democratic policies ­ include:

• Budiman Sujatmiko, former PRD chairperson, now a figure in Megawati’s PDIP and liekly to be elected to parliament in the 2009 elections

• Faizal Reza, former PRD chairperson, now an electoral candidate for the PKB (non-Gus Dur wing)

• Haris Rusli Moti, former PRD chairperson, now a figure in PAN

• Yusuf Lakaseng, former PRD chairperson, now deputy secretary-general of PBR.

As more parties announce their candidates for the 2009 elections, we see more and more names of NGO and former student activists appearing. The PDIP, which has been the most consistent in presenting itself as an opposition (sometimes publishing full page advertisements listing its acts of parliamentary opposition to the Yudhoyono government) appears to have absorbed the most activists. In fact, many activists had earlier been recruited through their employment as research officers to PDIP members of parliament or to PDIP institutions. But all the parties have been able to recruit former activists, including HANURA and GERINDRA.

The result of the absorption into one or other of the parties of the establishment of so many former activists, whether en bloc as with Dita Sari’s taking of her whole party in that direction, or through the shift of individual PRD or other activists, represents a kind of decomposition of the 1990s activist vanguard. This also means that the processes visible in the attempts re-compose a mass action oriented political left, building itself independent from and opposed to the political establishment, are more and more involving a post-1998
generation of activists.

Political Alternatives Independent from the Post-New Order Establishment.

A fundamental feature of the transition from the period of Suharto’s New Order dictatorship in 1998 to the current situation is that the student led mass movement of the 1990s did not produce a political party, either electorally oriented or mass action strategy oriented, that challenged the political establishment that had developed during the New Order, which included both the cliques around Suharto and at the top of the army as well as the cliques that had been more distant from Suharto (and the booty that came with being close to the power centre.) What rivalries that emerged in party politics after the fall of Suharto had little to do with basic differences on policy questions (except perhaps some constrained differences on the role of religion), but rather on where one’s clique (or new clique in formation) stood in relation to sources of power and
money (or power over money).

The anti-dictatorship movement of the 1990s had not been in existence long enough - developing on a mass scale mainly between June 1996 and May 1998 - to consolidate either ideological perspectives or institutions. After the dictatorship fell and relatively open electoral activity became possible, there were not either the ideological or institutional resources to compete against the myriad parties of the establishment.
Those parties drew upon substantial financial resources, depending on how wealthy their core cliques were, and substantial ideological resources, drawing on a combination of elements of the legacy of the 33 years of Suharto’s period and from religious, cultural and remnant historical legacies. The main historical ideological resource available to radical activists namely Left Soekarnoism (which included advocating unity with communists) was not accessible both because of legal suppression and because such an outlook had been so successfully blackened in the minds of the population.

Various political groups and figures that had emerged out of the 1990s activism, including the PRD, stood in the 1999 elections, when there were no serious regulatory obstacles. However, none made any headway against the parties of the establishment, both those representing the forces of Suharto’s New Order or their
rivals from within the elite. Building on this victory, the political establishment, through its parties in the parliament, have used the last ten years to consolidate its hold over electoral politics and political in general.

This obvious dominance by the two sets of parties - those of the New Order and what the PRD analysed as the “fake reformists”  (reformis gadungan) - quickly established as a major priority for those sectors radicalized by their experience of the 1990s and opposed to the neo-liberal economic strategies the building
of a political alternative to what the “New Order remnants” and “fake reformists” represented.

The PRD’s campaigns to establish POPOR and PAPERNAS as independent political organizations with programmes that challenged the establishment’s economic and political agenda and which hoped to break the masses dependence on the elite’s parties were a very important reflection of that priority. But
the processes pushing forward towards the formation of such an alternative, especially after 2001/2 were not confined to the efforts of the PRD. In the sphere of electoral campaigning, I have already mentioned the PPR. But there were other efforts also that were not constructed around an electoral orientation. In this reflection, I will just mention them in brief. In the course of commenting on Indonesian politics over the next
several months, there will be more scope to discuss them. There are also some related comments on this blog, in earlier posts relating to the formation of new left-wing alliances and to the round of protest actions last May-June against the government’s decision to increase the prices of fuel.

Sectoral organisations and political blocs

It is difficult to put a precise number to it, but it is very obvious that since 1998 (and actually starting before that but under heavy constraints) the number of sectoral organizations, as they called in Indonesia, has increased dramatically. These include trade unions, peasant organizations, other campaign oriented occupational based organizations (such as for fishermen, street traders etc), student organizations, women’s
groups and so on. A few of these have now organized nationally, but many more operate on a local or provincial level, while starting to network more nationally. Even harder to calculate are the ad hoc, temporary action committees that have been set up around this or that issue.

Out of this ferment, it is possible to identify at least two, perhaps three, ideologically based political formations - besides (previously, before 2007) the PRD and, since 2007, the KPRM-PRD - presenting the perspective of building an independent and progressive political alternative to counter the political establishment. These definitely include the Working Peoples Union (PRP) and the Peoples Struggle Front (FPR). The general political perspective of the PRP is outlined in an interview with its Secretary-General, Irwansyah, with the leftwing journal, JURNAL BERSATU, and which has been translated by James Balowski. I have never seen a similar summary of the perspective if the FPR, or its core political groupings. It is clear however that that they give a higher priority to peasant land struggles. There is a possible third stream reflected in the collaboration between the Indonesian Students Sarekat (SMI) and various worker
organizations.

The PRP and the KPRM-PRD (see the interviews with Irwansyah and Zely Ariane) explicitly advocate socialist goals. Along with the SMI, they also emphasise mass struggle and organization as a strategic outlook, based on intervening to organize and mobilize the widespread discontent in mass action. Zely Ariance captures the basic features of this approach in the JURNAL BERSATU interview with her. First she points to the most organized and radicalized political groupings:

First, the movements that still have a link with those of the 1980s and 1990s, such as the Green Indonesia Union (SHI), the Working People’s Association (PRP), the Workers Challenge Alliance (ABM), the Indonesian Farmers Federation (FSPI), the National Students Front (FMN) and so forth. This spectrum is
more open to programs to solve neoliberalism radically or in stages and their action committees have demands that are quite radical politically.

The SHI and FMN are associated with the Peoples Struggle Front (FPR). The ABM and FSPI are multi-stream in terms of the ideological influences inside them. Ariane then continues: Second, there is the spontaneous, fragmented and economist movement, which does not have or only has a small link with the
movements of the 1980s and 1990s. Included within this movement is the response or resistance by the people that statistically could reach the thousands every month. Their actions are also becoming richer with revolutionary methods such as occupations, strikes and so forth. This spectrum is far broader and must be
united and influenced by the first spectrum of the movement. (MORE)

The PRP, KPRM-PRD, ABM and a range of other organizations established the National Liberation Front (FPN) in May this year. They organized a series of protest actions through late May and into early June against the fuel price increases. This was undoubtedly an important step in the experimentation that will take place if these groups commit seriously to the unity  that Ariane mentioned above. The ideological divisions between the FPN groups and the FPR appear to block serious, ongoing collaboration - at the moment at least.

***

Realpolitik contradictions

The perspective being pursued by those working through the
political parties of the bourgeois establishment, among whom there are no serious policy or ideological differences, now stand in strong counter-position to those trying to unite and radicalize the myriad of struggle groupings into a political force, independent of and which can therefore struggle against the dominance of the political and business elite. In the context of almost forty years of monopoly of politics by the parties of the elite and its factions and the culture of dependence that has developed, the decision to call on the
masses to continue to work through on or other of these parties, rather than build an alternative will stand in a very sharp counter-position to those trying to build an independent alternative.

The campaign is just beginning and so it is not possible yet to identify just how this counter-position might be manifested in political conflict. The PRP and the trade union based ABM have called for a boycott of the elections. But it is not clear yet whether they have a proposal, or the resources, to attempt lead an active campaign to struggle for a major boycott election or to link it to concrete campaigns for political demands. I have not seen a KPRM-PRD or an FPN statement on this issue yet either. It is likely that the next 1 or 2 months will see more discussion and debate on how these groupings will finalise electoral tactics, especially given they are not standing in the elections, and how they analyse what priority they should give the elections.

It is perhaps difficult to identify yet what precise forms conflicts and contradictions might develop between those claiming to be on the Left (if they still do) advocating support for the elite parties and those trying to build a force or forces counterposed to those parties. However, it is already clear that a fundamental way that electoral politics is already starting to be framed will be challenging the ex-radicals cleverness in formulating justifications for their decisions. In the absence of genuine and serious policy and ideological
differences between any of these parties (at least the ones in the parliament and mentioned in the media), their real concerns - how close can they get to the centre of power - is quickly revealed. Seats in parliament are all well and good, but the real question of power in the current Indonesian system is who will be President (or lower down Governor and Bupati). Already (in fact for along time now), the jockeying for alliances that could assure one or other party or parties the presidency has been publicly underway. It is in this process, that all the other posturing is revealed as just that posturing.

The PDIP may try to pose as an opposition, but the series of high profile joint events with GOLKAR where the idea of a PDIP-GOLKAR alliance has been floated, deflates that pose very effectively. Similarly, when the PDIP or other parties ally with GOLKAR, Demokrat, their pretence of having serious policy or ideological differences disintegrate. The same applies for the PBR. When PBR chairperson, Bursah Zarnubi, says only positive things about the head of GOLKAR, Vice-President Jusuf Kalla, or makes no criticism of former head of GOLKAR and Suharto cabinet member, Akbar Tanjung, when discussing Tanjung’s possible presidential candidature, or campaigns for GOLKAR governorial candidates, it is an effective statement to the public of the absence of any serious policy or ideological differences.

Progressive or left activists developing justifications for working through such parties such as the PDIP, PBR or any of the others, will no doubt work out ways to justify calling on the people to support political leaders who can contemplate alliances with GOLKAR. They may face still more difficult predicaments. If Wiranto and/or Prabowo gather even 5-10% of the vote they too will be in the game of gathering together alliances to nominate themselves as president; or enter in  alliances where they are vice-presidential candidates. In
neither case, can you rule out any combination as impossible.

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Reflections 2: The basis for a national leadership crisis and the Indonesian elections

By Max Lane
Wednesday, January 7, 2009

While the campaign for the 2009 parliamentary and presidential elections have just begun, it is already possible to discern the embryonic development of a national leadership crisis, which will be associated with a major crisis of legitimacy. The cause of this crisis is the increasing gap between the majority of the Indonesian public and what has been increasingly referred to as the “elit politk” - the political elite embodied in the all the political parties standing candidates in the elections, and the various former New Order officials  - including ex-generals - maneuvering around the edges of the electoral processes. The gap represents a deepening alienation between rakyat and elit.

GOLPUT One manifestation of the alienation is the strengthening trend towards GOLPUT, that is towards the decision not to vote at all. Indonesia has historically had high participation rates in elections. In the country’s first two elections in 1955 and 1957 after the end of the guerilla war against Dutch colonialism
in 1949, the participation rate was over 90%. During the Suharto period, under duress participation often reached over 90%. The duress was not the only factor however, as was reflected in the mass turn out at rallies for non-regime parties' rallies, such as the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI). In the elections in 1999 immediately after the fall of Suharto, participation was also high at around 93%. Since 1999, however, the trend has between for an increasing number of eligible voters to either not bother registering or, even after registering, not bother to vote. This was evident in the 2004 parliamentary elections, with over 30% not voting, and even more so in some of the provincial and kabupaten local elections, such as near 40% in East Java. GOLPUT non-votes have been at least 25%, sometimes reaching 40% or more in elections on Sumatra, Java and Bali.

It was not surprising then when one party leader, Nur Hidayat from the Justice Welfare Party (PKS), urged the Islamic Ulamas Assembly to issue a fatwa stating that GOLPUT was haram according to religious law, which they did soon afterwards. Political statements by party leaders, including Vice-President and GOLKAR Chairperson Yusuf Kalla, have been repeatedly urging people not to GOLPUT and emphasizing how it would be a setback for democracy if too many people decided not to vote. It is impossible to watch a TV talk show about the elections where the various party leaders urge and cajole people not to GOLPUT, or condemn GOLPUT as anti-democratic. The increase in the trend towards GOLPUT is not a manifestation of apathy among the people. Everybody is still talking politics in the kampongs, factories and in the villages. Politics is everywhere in everybody’s face, Driving from Jakarta through Bekasi, Kerawang, Indramayu, Cirebon and on to Purwokerto in December, the road was lined with flags but also placards and billboards promoting individual candidates. At every stop, people had strong opinions on politics. The commercial TV shows know the interest is there too - with more than one station declaring itself the ELECTION
STATION. Politics sells.

Unpopular parties

But while everybody is still interested in politics, fewer and fewer people are interested in any of the 44 parties offering themselves for elections. Polling in 2006 and 2007 often showed up to 70% of those polled as not supporting any party or figure. Now, as the elections approach and more and more polling companies are around, a wider spectrum of results are available. Any random personal poll on the streets, however, meets the same refrain: they are all no good. I think my random street polls are accurate. This alienation from the parties is not only reflected in the GOLPUT trend but also in the simple fact that there is no party in Indonesia likely to even near a 50% nationwide vote, or even 40%. The two biggest parties in the 2004 elections scored only 23% (GOLAR) and 18% (PDIP). The rest scored below 15%, and many parties associated with national figures such as Amien Rais and Abdurrahman Wahid (Gus Dur) scored below 10%.

Now with a possible 40% GOLPUT vote these figures of around 20% and below - if they manage to get that high again - will be 5 or 10 or 15% of only 60% of voters, so actually even lower votes.

Despite the range of urgent socio-economic challenges, such as massive disguised unemployment and low productivity, declining economic growth, a neglected education system and others, no leadership is emerging which is winning any enthusiasm from the community. If anything, people are becoming more and more alienated. Perhaps it is worth considering for a moment one of the less positive election outcome scenarios, but one which is more and more likely, and its implication for national politics.

Let us assume a 40% GOLPUT vote. That means the remaining 60% would be divided up among the 44 parties. But only those parties which reach more that 2.5% of the national vote will be eligible to take up any seats that they have won. (The Indonesian parliament has 500 seats, so anybody who won less than 15 seats will get no seats at all.) It is quite likely that the bottom 34 parties will garner around 20% of the vote, with a few getting 1-2% and the majority getting under 1%. So that 20% of the electorate will also not be represented. The Indonesian parliament may only represent 40% of the population and even then the representation will be fragmented among 7-10 parties, none of whom will have won voting shares indicating they have any real large scale enthusiastic support.

What real authority and legitimacy can such a parliament have? Furthermore, it is assured that immediately after the elections all the parties will be seen to be engaged in an orgy of deals as each of these small political fragments scramble to form coalitions in support of one of several possible presidential candidates. This has already happened for local elections and some parties’ have already been publicly maneuvering making statements about who they may or may not support for Presidential candidates. The general impression given is that every party is open to a deal with any party. As Jusuf Kalla was quoted in the papers as saying: when it comes to coalitions, ideology is not important, just as long as you win.

Why the alienation?

The fact that every party is willing to do deals with any party is one key pointer to their unpopularity. Vice-President Kalla’s statement claims that ideology is not important, but the reality is that they can all to deals with each other because on the fundamental socio-economic issues they all share the same outlook. No party questions the fundamental neo-liberal economic strategy - reducing subsidies on goods and services consumed by ordinary people, privatizing and corporatizing state owned companies, and deregulating both domestic economic activity as well as international trade. While various figures and party advertising campaigns throw around all kinds of rhetoric - “new directions”, “change”, “a party for the poor”, “cheap goods for the people” and so on - the reality is that over the last 5 years no party has campaigned seriously against these kinds of policies, nor even voted against neo-liberal oriented laws. The PDIP staged one walk-out on the Foreign Investment Law, but did not follow-up with any serious campaign to revise the Law. There
is no party based on a large trade union or farmers’ unions movement that might present an alternative.

The lack of interest in challenging current policy directions is also very clearly evident in the parties’ election advertising. This comprises of just party flags with nothing on it but the name, or billboards or placards with the name and picture of a candidate with only the vaguest political slogan, and sometimes no political slogan at all. It seems that they are trying to base their appeal on what the candidates look like rather than what policies their parties propose, which is not surprising if their parties policies are simply “itu-itu lagi”, just more of the same. Those parties with money are starting to run some very well produced television ads, but again there is nothing concrete proposed or put forward.

So the people are left with the following impression: the parties are very enthusiastic about working out what deals will get them the positions they want, but think it is enough just to present their portraits and some vague rhetoric, whether slickly produced on TV or on a billboard made with digital printing. No doubt as the elections get closer, the partiers will mobilise their intellectual support base to produce various position papers. But these will not play a big role compared to the rhetoric and portraits. This kind of politics is laying the basis for a possible crisis of national leadership and of legitimacy of governance. Perhaps such leadership will, in the end, emerge out of the extra-parliamentary political sphere instead. Certainly there is no let up in social protest on the streets nor any decrease in the number of organizations concentrating on extra-parliamentary activity. Or perhaps this  elit politik will panic and actually promise something concrete.
But then they would be raising expectations among the people regarding improvements that the elit would have no intention of delivering. That is the most potentially explosive scenario.

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Election Reflections 3: Notes on presidential politics

By Max Lane
Monday, January 12, 2009

The Indonesians newspapers and media are quite naturally increasingly focusing on reporting and analyzing the various aspects of the campaigning for the 2009 parliamentary and presidential elections. To date the overwhelming weight of reports, reflecting the nature of the political activity that is most public, is focused on the question of who will be the various parties presidential candidate, and, no less important in terms of governmental outcome, who might be the various presidential candidate’s vice-presidential partner. Candidates Just in the last few days, HANURA’s General Wiranto has been nominated formally as his party’s candidate and GOLKAR chairperson Jusf Kalla has made the enigmatic but sufficiently provocative statement that he wants to be a “state leader”. A LP3ES poll has concluded that the combination of PDIP’s Megawati with GOLKAR’s (?) or Partai Republikan(‘s) Sultang Hamnegkubuwono the X1th (Sultan of Jogja) might just beat the current combination of President Yudhoyono (Democrat Party) and Jusuf Kalla. Other poll’s suggest the GERINDRA Party’s TV advertising campaigning is shifting General Prabowo up the polling score in his bed for the Presidential candidate. Rizal Ramli, currently nominated as a presidential candidate by the Employer and Employee Party as well as the Star Reformation Party (PBR) is hinting that his being charged with fomenting rioting back in May, 2008 is meant to destabilize his presidential ambitions.

Most commentators, and the various political actors and observers I regularly speak to, suggest that the most likely outcome is that the combination of Yudhoyono-Jusf Kalla (the current ruling coalition core grouping of GOLKAR plus Democrat Party) will end up facing off against, PDIP’s Megawati and whomever she chooses as Vice-President. However, everybody is also very aware that things might “meleset” ­ get thrown off the rails a bit. Indeed, the perception that the political balance is fragile is exactly what has convinced some politicians putting themselves forward as candidates that they have a chance despite the fact that they have had no organized base or are just trying to build such a base now. Megawati and Jusuf Kalla - if GOLKAR should nominate him - do have a solid organized base. The PDIP scored 18% in the last elections and GOLKAR 22%. President Yudhoyono has had an organized base, the Democrat Party, since before 2004, although it only scored 7% in 2004. Nobody is quite sure how strong it is on the ground today.

The other candidates - Wiranto and Prabowo or the Sultan or Rizal Ramli - have no real organized base, or have only recently started building one. WIranto started up HANUARA after the 2004 elections, and likewise, although slightly later, Prabowo started up GERINDRA. Prabowo, however, had somehow got himself
chosen as the chairperson of the Himpunan Kerukukan Tani Indonesia (Indonesian Farmers Association - HKTI). The HKTI was the official farmers union under the Suharto dictatorship. Again we will only know how real the voter mobilisational power of these formations are in April.

The Sultan of Yogyakarta has been nominated as a presidential candidate by the new, small Republikan party, which also has ties to some Christian circles. However, the Sultan like Rizal Ramli (and a few other candidates out there) are hoping to be “dipinang” (to receive proposals of ‘marriage’) from other more
significant parties. The Sultan has a support group called the Rainbow Alliance, whose coordinator is the commentator intellectual, Sukardi Rinakit, and which as the supporter of some artistic world personalities, such as film director Garin Nugroho and musician Franky S. Ramli has also initiated the Komite Bangkit Indonesia, which he hoped would promote his profile. He seems also to have a major involvement in the Dewan Integritas Bangsa. These kinds of organizations work to give their candidates media profile and help to network with the registered political parties.

Networking with the registered political parties is crucial as the new Presidential Elections Law requires formal presidential nominations to be supported by a party or coalition of parties that have at least 20% of the seats in the parliament.

One social democratic intellectual, Fajroel Rachman, has been fighting to overturn this law through the courts on constitutional grounds, so that a non-party individual can stand for the Presidency, but this has so far not yielded any significant results.

Fragile balance

Why do these candidates with no or only very new and untested organized bases of support think they have a chance given the apparent solidity of the Yudhoyono-Kalla and Megawati camps? There are a number of scenarios which could upset the balance.

If Yudhoyono’s Democrat Party’s vote drops, perhaps this may result in Yudhoyono not standing. As GOLKAR has no credible figure - (Kalla’s image is too close to being semi-buffoon) - GOLKAR will need to choose a candidate from some small party, just as they had to do in 2004 in adopting Yudhoyono.

If PDIP’s vote slips, the same dynamic will apply. PDIP has no figure even remotely close tohaving even Megawati’s low popularity as a Presidential figure. Such a scenario would advantage a candidate from some small party. Given that both “dominant” parties, GOLKAR and PDIP, actually had support quite small bases of around 20% as of 2004, is it possible that one of the new parties may get close to their votes, thus increasing the new parties bargaining power, including on the question of a Presidential candidate from some small party.

Further as you only need 20% of the seats to nominate a president. If the PDIP and GOLKAR-Democrats win about the same votes as in 2004, 18% and 30% of the vote respectively, there would be parties with seats enough to nominate at least two other presidential candidates, if the other parties can form coalitions to nominate other candidates from one of the smaller parties. Then it would come down to a contest in the first round of the presidential elections as to who could get the most votes, If there were four candidates you may only need to get 26% of the vote to win and even less (depending on how a vote candidate number one got) to be the other candidate to fight it out in the second round run-off.

There may be the basis of a coalition between the various Islamic parties, especially those that share an ideological continuity with the old MASYUMI party. If HANURA and GERINDRA get in and WIranto and Prabowo can bury old rivalries, they might be able to gather a few other parties to back them, including one or more of the Islamic parties. (Although the 2.5% parliamentary threshold may eliminate some parties with seats now reducing the range of parties available for alliances.)

So up until and including the first round of the presidential elections, a party or coalition of parties really only needs to win, first 20% (to be nominated) and then 20-26% (approx) to get into the second round run-off. In other words, all the parties know they do not need to have very much popular support to get into the game in a serious way. If we take current estimates by many commentators of a high GOLPUT vote (i.e. those not
registering to vote or not voting even if registered) of 40%, then all these contenders are really only after 26% of 60% of the total voting population, i.e. 15% of total eligible voters. (Indobarometer polling announced results that 18% of their voter sample were not registered and 14.5% didn’t know if they were registered, or 32.5%. This is a starting base even before one counts registered voters who decide not to vote. These figures, if they hold, will mean higher numbers of unregistered voters than in 2004. Political scientist, Arie Sujito, from Gajah Mada University says he things the GOLPUT figures will be 35-40% based on trends in provincial and kabupaten elections.)

This is a very weird situation. All the candidates, even those with no or very new organized support bases, think they have a chance precisely because they know they only need 15% support from eligible votes, or 20-26% of those who vote, and precisely because they also know that none of them are particularly popular.

To date, maneuvering over candidates has overshadowed by 1000% (at least) any discussion of solutions to the country’s economic and social problems. Perhaps we will see more of that in the coming weeks. Another question for the coming weeks: will the GOLPUT be a purely passive rejection of the parties? Will there be more extra-parliamentary political activity? More on these questions in future blog entries.

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PKS Leaders Named Suspects

The Jakarta Post (website)
Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Tifatul Sembiring, chairman of the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), and two other party executives are suspected by the Jakarta Police of violating political campaign laws.

PKS spokesman Mabruri said Wednesday that Jakarta Police investigators summoned the three for questioning on Thursday.

"The schedule is at one o'clock in the afternoon," he said as quoted by tempointeraktif.com.

PKS executives were reported to police by the General Elections Supervisory Committee for political campaigning during a rally against Israel's attacks on Gaza. Campaigning is not allowed until one month prior to April's election.

The committee accused several PKS members of displaying party banners and giving speeches on the party's mission during the rally.

Tifatul denied the allegations. (dre)

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